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Swine flu burns out in Houston; January return predicted
By TODD ACKERMAN Copyright 2009 Houston Chronicle
Dec. 1, 2009, 8:44PM
After menacing the area for eight months ? closing schools, killing vulnerable and able-bodied people and generally causing anxiety ? swine flu has burned out in Houston.
But probably just for the time being.
The H1N1 virus was rampant in September and October, but local flu doctors and public health leaders said Tuesday that flu activity has been declining steadily in the Houston area for the past few weeks, to the point that there's now very little to report.
?We're hardly seeing any at all,? said Dr. Gail Demmler, a doctor of pediatrics and infectious disease at Texas Children's Hospital and Baylor College of Medicine. ?Today is the third day in a row none of the samples we tested for swine flu came back positive.?
Demmler also noted that flu-related hospitalizations are down from October. Houston Independent School District absentee charts show a drop from as much as 8 percent in September and October to 2 percent in mid-November. And statewide, there were 13 swine flu deaths through mid-November, compared to 70 in October.
But Demmler and other experts said they fully expect the virus to return in January, typically the beginning of Houston's traditional flu season. They called for people who haven't been inoculated yet to get the vaccine, now becoming more readily available.
The city of Houston and Harris County health departments have expanded availability to their supply of the vaccine to the general population, for instance, not just the priority groups for which they'd previously reserved it.
?This virus is almost identically following the pattern of the 1957 flu epidemic, when it appeared in the spring, stayed around in the summer and hit hard in the early fall, before tapering off at the end of October, then returning in January,? said Dr. Paul Glezen, chief epidemiologist at
Baylor's Influenza Research Center.
?This H1N1 virus is most likely to come back in January or February.?
H3N2 virus may turn up
Glezen said Houston could also see the H3N2 virus, which circulated in the southern hemisphere the last six months, though it was fairly overwhelmed by the swine flu virus. It has not appeared anywhere in the U.S. so far.
The Texas Department of State Health Services on Tuesday stopped short of urging swine flu vaccine access to all, sending out an advisory urging providers to begin targeting all priority groups. That advice adds to previous groups considered most at risk anyone from 5 to 24.
A spokeswoman said state health department officials believe not enough of the priority groups have got the vaccine.
Don't waste it
Kelsey-Seybold, one of Houston's largest private providers, announced Tuesday it expects to broaden its vaccine availability beyond the priority groups, perhaps as soon as this evening.
Kathy Barton, spokeswoman for the Houston health department, said the city supply is strong, and officials don't want any vaccine wasting in a warehouse.
Houston on Monday reported its 11th swine flu death, a girl between the ages of 5 and 9 who died Nov. 17. Her death brings the five-county region's total to 32, including 14 in unincorporated Harris County.
The key to keeping those numbers from exploding in the winter, said Glezen, is to guard against complacency.
?How active a winter flu season awaits Houston depends on people getting the swine flu and seasonal vaccines,? Glezen said. ?I hope all the attention paid to the virus gets more people than usual to get the shot.?
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/metropolitan/6748137.html
By TODD ACKERMAN Copyright 2009 Houston Chronicle
Dec. 1, 2009, 8:44PM
After menacing the area for eight months ? closing schools, killing vulnerable and able-bodied people and generally causing anxiety ? swine flu has burned out in Houston.
But probably just for the time being.
The H1N1 virus was rampant in September and October, but local flu doctors and public health leaders said Tuesday that flu activity has been declining steadily in the Houston area for the past few weeks, to the point that there's now very little to report.
?We're hardly seeing any at all,? said Dr. Gail Demmler, a doctor of pediatrics and infectious disease at Texas Children's Hospital and Baylor College of Medicine. ?Today is the third day in a row none of the samples we tested for swine flu came back positive.?
Demmler also noted that flu-related hospitalizations are down from October. Houston Independent School District absentee charts show a drop from as much as 8 percent in September and October to 2 percent in mid-November. And statewide, there were 13 swine flu deaths through mid-November, compared to 70 in October.
But Demmler and other experts said they fully expect the virus to return in January, typically the beginning of Houston's traditional flu season. They called for people who haven't been inoculated yet to get the vaccine, now becoming more readily available.
The city of Houston and Harris County health departments have expanded availability to their supply of the vaccine to the general population, for instance, not just the priority groups for which they'd previously reserved it.
?This virus is almost identically following the pattern of the 1957 flu epidemic, when it appeared in the spring, stayed around in the summer and hit hard in the early fall, before tapering off at the end of October, then returning in January,? said Dr. Paul Glezen, chief epidemiologist at
Baylor's Influenza Research Center.
?This H1N1 virus is most likely to come back in January or February.?
H3N2 virus may turn up
Glezen said Houston could also see the H3N2 virus, which circulated in the southern hemisphere the last six months, though it was fairly overwhelmed by the swine flu virus. It has not appeared anywhere in the U.S. so far.
The Texas Department of State Health Services on Tuesday stopped short of urging swine flu vaccine access to all, sending out an advisory urging providers to begin targeting all priority groups. That advice adds to previous groups considered most at risk anyone from 5 to 24.
A spokeswoman said state health department officials believe not enough of the priority groups have got the vaccine.
Don't waste it
Kelsey-Seybold, one of Houston's largest private providers, announced Tuesday it expects to broaden its vaccine availability beyond the priority groups, perhaps as soon as this evening.
Kathy Barton, spokeswoman for the Houston health department, said the city supply is strong, and officials don't want any vaccine wasting in a warehouse.
Houston on Monday reported its 11th swine flu death, a girl between the ages of 5 and 9 who died Nov. 17. Her death brings the five-county region's total to 32, including 14 in unincorporated Harris County.
The key to keeping those numbers from exploding in the winter, said Glezen, is to guard against complacency.
?How active a winter flu season awaits Houston depends on people getting the swine flu and seasonal vaccines,? Glezen said. ?I hope all the attention paid to the virus gets more people than usual to get the shot.?
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/metropolitan/6748137.html