Treyfish
Moderator
Current situation
- WHO Alert remains at Phase 6 (widespread human infection) - see LGA website for more information about Phase 6.
- An increase in UK swine flu cases suggests that the predicted second wave of the outbreak may have begun. The majority of new cases have been in children of school age.
- New cases of swine flu in England have risen by a third, with the latest official figures showing 5,200 new infections in a week. Rates are also up in Scotland and Northern Ireland but have decreased slightly in Wales.
- It is unclear whether the upturn will be sustained, but it is thought that the move into the winter flu season and the return of schools may be contributing factors.
- There have been three more swine flu related deaths in England and two in Scotland. This brings the UK total to 79, with 67 in England, nine in Scotland, two in Northern Ireland and one in Wales.
- Hospitalisations of people with suspected pandemic flu in England have levelled, with 143 patients currently hospitalised in England (as of September 16).
- The majority of cases continue to be mild but the virus is proving severe in a small minority of cases.
- Globally, 3,696 have died due to swine flu (as of September 15). In that week, the total number of deaths reported globally increased by 6% - a much slower increase compared to recent weeks.
- Isolated cases of resistance to antiviral drug Tamiflu have occurred with pandemic H1N1 swine flu, in line with what has been seen in clinical trials, this also happens in seasonal flu. So far there is no evidence of onward transmission to other people.
- There is currently no vaccine available. However vaccines have been ordered on a 100% UK population basis, although first delivery will not available until October this year with final delivery not before late 2010.
- Family doctors will administer swine flu vaccines this winter after a deal was brokered with the Government. This programme is due to start in October, subject to licensing. The government?s current intention is to offer the H1N1 vaccination to the following at-risk groups:
- People aged between six months and 65 years in the clinically at-risk groups for seasonal flu.
- Pregnant women, subject to licensing by the European Medicines Agency, which will indicate whether it can be given throughout pregnancy or only at certain stages of pregnancy.
- Household contacts of people with compromised immune systems.
- People aged 65 and over in the current seasonal flu vaccine clinical at-risk groups.
- Frontline health and social care workers will be offered the vaccine at the same time as the first clinical at-risk groups.
- The Secretary of State for International Development announced the UK would provide up to ?23 million to help the developing world tackle the H1N1 pandemic. The UK will also make H1N1 vaccine available to the WHO on a rolling basis as vaccine supplies become available.
- Earlier this month, Britain lowered the potential number of deaths from swine flu in the worst case scenario to 19,000 from 65,000. This paper outlines possible scenarios for how the pandemic might develop in the UK and is available on the UK Resilience website: http://www.cabinetoffice.gov.uk/ukresilience/pandemicflu/risk/current_risk_assessment.aspx
- The planning assumptions will be regularly reviewed to take into account the spread of the disease at that stage, what is known about the proposed vaccination programme, and new information about the virus.
- The UK is remains at Treatment Phase. This means an end to contract tracing, prophylaxis, and laboratory confirmation of cases. Clinical diagnosis will be used to confirm swine flu cases. Antivirals will continue to be offered to all those who have contracted the illness. However, it remains a matter of clinical discretion to decide whether antivirals should be prescribed in individual cases.
- The Health Protection Agency's Centre for Infections press office issues a weekly media alert covering the various surveillance systems the Agency will be using to monitor the ongoing situation. This will also be available in the News section of the Agency's website at www.hpa.org.uk.
:tiphat:http://www.lga.gov.uk/lga/core/page.do?pageId=3968615