Strategies for containing an influenza pandemic:the case of Italy

[Sally Furniss]

Strategies for containing an influenza pandemic:
the case of Italy

http://72.14.253.104/search?q=cache...+nz+"pre+pandemic+vaccine"&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=9

Stefano Merler, Giuseppe Jurman, Cesare Furlanello
ITC-irst
Trento, Italy
Email: {merler, jurman, furlan}@itc.it
Caterina Rizzo
∗
, Antonino Bella, Marco Massari, Marta Luisa Ciofi degli Atti
National Centre for Epidemiology, Surveillance and Health Promotion
National Institute of Health
Rome, Italy
and
∗
Department of Pharmaco-Biology
University of Bari
Bari, Italy

Abstract? In this paper we introduce an individual based
model for simulating the spread of an emerging influenza
pandemic in Italy and testing the effectiveness of some containing
strategies including vaccination, antiviral prophylaxis and quar-
antine measures to increase social distances. Our results show
that while the probability of interrupting a large outbreak is
negligible, a combination of the control measures can be effective
in reducing the incidence of infection. In particular, in the worst
case, an incidence reduction from about 50% to about 10% can
be hopefully achieved.

 

[tropical]

Re: Strategies for containing an influenza pandemic:the case of Italy

Thank you AnneZ, this is talking: a math analysed pand. projection study.

The symbols in the equation caryed any initial presumed variable value.

1. The strategies will be clearer if we could see a relation between:
-a CFR(%) variable,
and the study variables:
- βh = within-household transmission coeff.
- β = within-school/workplace transmission coeff.
- Ck = 0,5 (was supposed) = 50% of cases to be severe
- S = infection coming from random contacts in the population - depends on a social net.


2. The "C. Modeling of interventions" rely on interventions which, for now, we can't afford:
1) Vaccination:
- "... The vaccine coverage is set to 90% for at risk individuals" (!)
TODAY WE HAVE NOT A VACCINE COVERAGE,
- "... the target population receives one dose of pre-pandemic vaccine at time,
THAT IS NOT ACHIEVED, ONLY FOR AN ESIGUE MINORITY, MAYBE!
- plus one dose of pandemic vaccine 14 weeks since the beginig of the pandemic
THAT IS A "WE WILL SEE, WISH-THINKING", FOR NOW.


3. Prophylactic antiviral treatment:
- "We use recent rigorous estimates of antiviral efficacy ... reduce ... by 30%.
MAYBE, AT THE BEGINING,
- We suppose to treat 90% of the close contacts of symptomatic influenza cases." (!)
MAYBE AT THE VERY BEGINING, BUT AFTER ..., HARDLY!


4. "We suppose that the infection is imported by an (one) infected individual coming from outside the study region."
WHAT IF THE FIRST INFECTIONS WOULD BE BY MULTIPLE INDIVIDUALS, AT VARIOUS PLACES?


5. "... Many diffusion scenarios are possible, depending notably on seasonality, virus transmissibility, and geographic origin of the pandemic.
A detailed prediction of pandemic dynamics is consequently hard to achieve, as extensively shown by the problems faced by public health response planning."
THAT IS CORRECT.


6. "... By analyzing a global SEIR model and italian international airport data, the first italian case could be detected between 2 and 3 months after the first world case,"
HOW MANY OTHER CASES WILL SURELY REMAIN UNDETECTED AFTER 2 MONTHS OF AIRPLAIN SPREADING!
"and vaccination is therefore assumed to be effective 6 months after the first world case.
AT THIS POINT, HOW WE CAN INTEGRATE THE WHO's:
"a pandemic will round the world in weeks..."