Sri Lanka Dengue 2012: 264 fatalities

[Ronan Kelly]

Re: Sri Lanka Dengue 2012: 264 fatalities

Updated Jan 3rd to 43,845 cases. 273 new cases added in the past two days, all to December (3,139).

http://www.epid.gov.lk/web/index.php?option=com_casesanddeaths&Itemid=448&lang=en#

Sri Lanka MOH no longer publishes fatality figures. Using the cfr of .608% (established to June 20th - see earlier posts for details) this allows an estimate of 266 fatal cases. - Ro

Oddly, by selecting the year 2013, one is transported to an already filled in table of very low figures. Aspirational targets perhaps?

Edit: On further investigation, the numbers shown are identical to the leptospirosis figures for 2012 - so just an error.

 

[Ronan Kelly]

Re: Sri Lanka Dengue 2012: 264 fatalities

Updated Jan 11th to 44,214 cases. 369 new cases added in the past eight days, all to December (3,508).

http://www.epid.gov.lk/web/index.php?option=com_casesanddeaths&Itemid=448&lang=en#

Sri Lanka MOH no longer publishes fatality figures. Using the cfr of .608% (established to June 20th - see earlier posts for details) this allows an estimate of 268 fatal cases. - Ro

 

[Ronan Kelly]

Re: Sri Lanka Dengue 2012: 264 fatalities

In the continuing case of Sri Lanka's ever decreasing Dengue deaths - a report from the Sunday Times of Sri Lanka. It can be seen that the total number of fatalities is now quoted at 200 for 2012. In post #99 above (Dec 31) it was 220 and in post #92 even further above (Dec 12) it was 264. This began in mid-May when cases & fatalities were heading for a new record. The Ministry of Health stopped reporting fatalities and began to trivialize the outbreak. Since then no clear picture has emerged. My own estimate of 268 fatalities is based on the cfr between 2011 and May 2013. - Ro

2500 dengue cases in January
THURSDAY, 31 JANUARY 2013 12:38
A total of 2590 dengue cases have been reported in the month of January, the Epidemiology Unit of the Health Ministry said.

The highest number of cases was reported in Colombo district with 668 cases followed by Kurunegala with 503 cases.

Last year?s dengue outbreak resulted in 200 deaths and 45,000 cases reporting throughout the year.

http://sundaytimes.lk/latest/29698-2500-dengue-cases-in-january.html

 

[Ronan Kelly]

Re: Sri Lanka Dengue 2012: 264 fatalities

National Mosquito Control Week begins


[February 06 2013]



Nadira Gunatilleke

Health Minister Maithripla Sirisena declared the National Mosquito Control Week from today to February 12. Several activities will be carried out countrywide to eradicate mosquito breeding sites and make the public aware about the dangers of the Dengue mosquito during the week.

Addressing the press, Minister Sirisena said the Dengue mosquito has become a challenge to the country and it was controlled with the assistance of all sectors, especially the Defence Ministry and the Armed Forces.

The number of dengue deaths decreased during the last two years due to special training provided to specialist doctors and medical staff, the minister said.
...
http://www.dailynews.lk/2013/02/09/cdnstory.asp?sid=20130206_02&imid=cdn.jpg&dt=[February 06 2013]

Comment Using latest available Dengue case numbers-
246 Dengue fatalities were recorded in 2010 from 34,105 cases - a cfr of .72%. 185 deaths were reported in 2011 from 28,473 cases - a cfr of 0.65%. 2012 was a very active dengue year, and the MOH stopped reporting fatalities in May. A media report in December reported 264 deaths, reports since then have been whittling away at this figure to 220, then 200. Now the statement from the minister above. 44,410 cases of Dengue were reported in 2013. The cfr established in the first part of the year was 0.61% which would allow an estimate of 271 fatal cases over the course of the full year. Much higher than 2010.
I just do not have confidence in the spin being put on this by the Ministry and the Minister. - Ro

 

[Ronan Kelly]

Re: Sri Lanka Dengue 2012: 264 fatalities

From Weekly Epidemiological Report Vol. 40 No.01 29th December– 04th January 2013 Article "Flashback 2012";
http://www.epid.gov.lk/web/images/pdf/wer/2013/vol_40_no_01_english.pdf

Given a final tally of 44,456 cases of Dengue reported in 2012, a cfr of .4% gives an estimated 178 deaths. Thus the reported number of dengue fatalities in 2012 continues to diminish - from 264 on Dec 12th 2012 to 220 by Dec 21st to 200 by Jan 31st and now 178. A very successful dengue eradication campaign indeed! - Ro