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Sri Lanka Dengue 2012: 264 fatalities

Re: Sri Lanka Dengue 2012: 85 fatalities

Re: Sri Lanka Dengue 2012: 85 fatalities

The number of fatalities quoted by the minister are likely not accurate. The minister's own website counted 75 fatalities on June 22 - itself a likely undercount. The director of the ministry Epidemiology Unit stated that there were 85 fatalities on July 10th. - Ro


Accidents kill more than dengue - minister
Ridma DISSANAYAKE
Dengue has not reached epidemic levels or high proportions as claimed by some sections of the media and society, Health Minister Maithripala Sirisena said. “The Health Ministry is implementing a continuous programme to combat dengue. As a result, there is a significant drop in the spread of dengue,” he said.

The minister said the number of deaths reported due to accidents and Non Communicable Diseases (NCD) is higher than deaths caused by dengue. The minister said 74 persons had died due to dengue during the past six months.

“But at least five die daily due to road accidents and NCDs. Over 2,000 road accidents are reported annually and over Rs100,000 have to be paid for a day’s treatment of a patient injured critically in a road accident,” he said. There is a decline in the percentage of dengue related deaths compared to those in the past few years as a result of the dengue combat programme launched by the Health Ministry. The number of dengue patients in hospitals is also low, the minister said. He said dengue is not confined only to Sri Lanka. “It has become a serious problem in all tropical and neighbouring countries. Everybody should support the ministry’s programme to combat dengue,” he said.

The Health Ministry is conducting its dengue prevention campaign in Sri Lanka successfully and provided special training for doctors and nurses to treat dengue patients, the minister said. Sri Lanka has controlled the spread of dengue due to the successful programme implemented by the government. The statements like ‘Dengue has reached an epidemic level’ and ‘Dengue has reached high proportions’ are myths created by certain media, he said.
http://www.dailynews.lk/2012/07/16/news03.asp
 
Re: Sri Lanka Dengue 2012: 85 fatalities

Re: Sri Lanka Dengue 2012: 85 fatalities

And another set of numbers....

Dengue surge in some areas
Nadira GUNATILLEKE
A total of 15,900 dengue cases and 78 dengue deaths have been reported from all parts of the country to date this year.

A downward trend is noticed in the spread of dengue fever but in certain areas in some districts an increase is shown, National Dengue Control Programme Director Dr Ranjith Batuwantudawa said.

Dr Batuwantudawa said certain areas in Colombo, Gampaha, Kegalle and Kurunegala districts show an increase in dengue cases. "Rains have ceased and containers are lying without water.
...
http://www.dailynews.lk/2012/07/18/news22.asp?
 
Re: Sri Lanka Dengue 2012: 85 fatalities

Re: Sri Lanka Dengue 2012: 85 fatalities

The official numbers continue to lag those being reported by the Director of the Health Ministry Epidemiology unit (17,000 cases, 85 deaths, July 10th) and the Director of the National Dengue Control Programme (15,900 cases, 78 deaths, July 17th).

Latest figures July 23rd;

Cases 14,907
Fatalities 75
http://www.epid.gov.lk/web/index.php?option=com_casesanddeaths&Itemid=448&lang=en

Officially, there have been no reported fatalities since June 20.
 
Re: Sri Lanka Dengue 2012: 85 fatalities

Re: Sri Lanka Dengue 2012: 85 fatalities

I believe that any figures being released at this stage are suspect. 80 fatalities were reported by the media in post 31 above (June 15th) and 85 fatalities reported by Health Ministry Epidemiology Unit Director Dr Paba Palihawadana in post 39 above (July 10th).

Dengue: downward trend shown, outbreak not ruled out
Nadira GUNATILLEKE
Nearly 16,200 dengue cases and around 80 deaths have been reported from all parts of the country. A decrease is noted in dengue cases but an outbreak can occur in the pockets where dengue mosquitoes breed, National Dengue Control Programme Director Dr Ranjith Batuwanthudawa said.

Dr Batuwanthudawa said although there is a decrease in dengue cases, there are pockets in certain districts where dengue mosquitoes breed freely. "Some of those pockets are in Ratnapura, Kegalle and Puttalam districts," he said.
...
http://www.dailynews.lk/2012/08/02/news15.asp
 
Re: Sri Lanka Dengue 2012: 85 fatalities

Re: Sri Lanka Dengue 2012: 85 fatalities

Personally, I think that there has been a concerted effort to conceal the number of fatalities. It is very unlikely that 50% more cases since June 20th (see above) have resulted in only 13% more deaths. - Ro

Conflicting figures on Dengue deaths
By Carol Aloysius Sunday, 12 August 2012 02:19

The health sector seems confused over the number of deaths caused by patients afflicted with dengue fever and the number of persons suffering the disease so far this year.
The official website of the Epidemiology Unit claims that only 53 succumbed to the disease as at August 8. Contrary to the said position, the Head of the Unit Dr. Paba Palihawadana claimed the number was nearly 80.
Contradicting Dr. Palihawada’s position, Director, Anti-Dengue campaign Dr. Ranjith Batuwantudawe held the number of deaths stood at 82.

The website claimed 11,043 cases of dengue while Dr. Palihawadana put it at 21,000. However Dr. Batuwantudawe claimed 18,111 cases were reported as at August 9.
Dr. Batuwantudawe attributed the cause for confusion over figures to the recent strike by Public Health Inspectors as figures were still arriving from the districts.
...
http://www.nation.lk/edition/news-online/item/9276-conflicting-figures-on-dengue-deaths.html
 
Re: Sri Lanka Dengue 2012: 85 fatalities

Re: Sri Lanka Dengue 2012: 85 fatalities

Another significant rise in the number of cases in the August 14th update. 22,034 cases are reported, an increase of almost 4,000 in the last week. However, only 893 cases are reported in August indicating a lag in case confirmations. Sri Lanka no longer publishes fatality figures. Using the cfr of .608% (see earlier posts for details) this allows an estimate of 134 fatal cases.

http://www.epid.gov.lk/web/index.php?option=com_casesanddeaths&Itemid=448&lang=en
 
Re: Sri Lanka Dengue 2012: 85 fatalities

Re: Sri Lanka Dengue 2012: 85 fatalities

August 17th updated to 23,989 cases, an increase of almost 2,000 in the last 3 days. However, only 552 of those cases were added to August (total 1,445) indicating a lag in case confirmations. Sri Lanka no longer publishes fatality figures. Using the cfr of .608% (see earlier posts for details) this allows an estimate of 146 fatal cases.

http://www.epid.gov.lk/web/index.php?option=com_casesanddeaths&Itemid=448&lang=en
 
Re: Sri Lanka Dengue 2012: 85 fatalities

Re: Sri Lanka Dengue 2012: 85 fatalities

Updated August 22nd to 25,679 cases. 1,690 new cases added in the past 5 days, 817 of those added to August (total 2,262).
The following note was provided;
"There is a back log of surveillance data (399) received from field level currently. Based on sentinel site surveillance, the Dengue peak was observed during the months of May & June 2012."
http://www.epid.gov.lk/web/index.php?option=com_casesanddeaths&Itemid=448&lang=en

Sri Lanka no longer publishes fatality figures. Using the cfr of .608% (established to June 20th - see earlier posts for details) this allows an estimate of 156 fatal cases.
 
Re: Sri Lanka Dengue 2012: 85 fatalities

Re: Sri Lanka Dengue 2012: 85 fatalities

Published in the Sri Lanka Daily News today. The case numbers are about a week out of date and I'd take the fatality figure with a grain of salt. - Ro

Dengue threat with rains
The Health Ministry yesterday announced a rise in incidence of dengue with the onset of monsoonal rains. Dengue has already claimed 83 lives this year with 24,500 dengue cases reported during the last seven and half months. Ministry sources said the majority of cases have been reported from the Western Province, particularly the Colombo district.

Around 24,500 dengue cases had been reported from the beginning of this year and 8,500 among them have been reported this month.
...
http://www.dailynews.lk/2012/08/27/news33.asp
 
Re: Sri Lanka Dengue 2012: 85 fatalities

Re: Sri Lanka Dengue 2012: 85 fatalities

Given the cfr to June 20th, one can estimate 156 fatal cases so far this year. - Ro

Dengue death statistics withheld by Health Ministry

By Sonja Candappa

The number of dengue cases has reached a staggering 25,000 this year despite measures taken by health authorities to control this deadly mosquito-borne disease.

According to data released by the Health Ministry?s Epidemiology Unit the number of cases stands at 25,679. However, the number of deaths has not been released by the Epidemiology Unit since June this year. The last update was 75 deaths.
Colombo still remains the deadly district with 6,299 cases to date, followed by Gampaha with 4,556 cases and Kalutara with 1,643 cases. More cases are reported in Kandy and Kurungala as well.

Dr. Ranjith Batuwanthudawe, director of National Dengue Control Unit of the Health Ministry said ?there was a slight decrease in the number of cases reported during the past two months because of the prevailing drought, but with scattered rains reported island-wide, there would be a rise in numbers of this deadly mosquito?. He added the ministry would continue with vector control programmes.
...
http://www.sundaytimes.lk/120826/news/dengue-death-statistics-withheld-by-health-ministry-10091.html
 
Re: Sri Lanka Dengue 2012: 85 fatalities

Re: Sri Lanka Dengue 2012: 85 fatalities

Updated August 28th to 27,580 cases. 1,901 new cases added in the past 6 days, 895 of those added to August (total 3,157).
http://www.epid.gov.lk/web/index.php?option=com_casesanddeaths&Itemid=448&lang=en

Sri Lanka no longer publishes fatality figures. Using the cfr of .608% (established to June 20th - see earlier posts for details) this allows an estimate of 168 fatal cases.
 
Re: Sri Lanka Dengue 2012: 85 fatalities

Re: Sri Lanka Dengue 2012: 85 fatalities

This is from tomorrow's Sri Lanka Daily News. The case figures quoted are about a week old (see post above for more recent numbers) The fatality figure of 85 was first floated by the epidemiology unit on July 10th when case numbers stood at under 17,000. - Ro

Dengue, Leptospirosis show upward trend during rainy seasons
Nadira Gunatilleke
Nearly 26,000 dengue cases and 85 deaths were reported countrywide this year while the number of dengue cases reported during this month is nearly 2,300, Epidemiology Unit sources said.

According to the sources, the most affected districts are Colombo, Gampaha, Ratnapura, Kegalle and Kurunegala. The Colombo Municipal Council recorded 1,809 dengue cases by August 22 while the other areas of the Colombo district recorded 4,490 dengue cases by the same date.

The number of dengue cases has gone up, but, the number of deaths had been gone down when comparing with previous years.
...
http://www.dailynews.lk/2012/08/29/news32.asp
 
Re: Sri Lanka Dengue 2012: 85 fatalities

Re: Sri Lanka Dengue 2012: 85 fatalities

Updated August 30th to 28,083 cases. 503 new cases added in the past 2 days, 330 of those added to August (total 3,487).
http://www.epid.gov.lk/web/index.php...id=448&lang=en

Sri Lanka no longer publishes fatality figures. Using the cfr of .608% (established to June 20th - see earlier posts for details) this allows an estimate of 171 fatal cases.
 
Re: Sri Lanka Dengue 2012: 85 fatalities

Re: Sri Lanka Dengue 2012: 85 fatalities

Below are plots created from the cumulative dengue case and fatality figures as released by the Epidemiology Unit of the Ministry of Health of Sri Lanka at their website http://www.epid.gov.lk/web/index.php?option=com_casesanddeaths&Itemid=448&lang=en in 2011 and 2012.

SLDen.PNG

To December 30th 2011, 173 fatalities from 27,162 cases were reported. The case figures have since been revised upward to 28,473, but the fatality figures have vanished. Using the latest figures, a cfr of 0.61% can be calculated for 2011.

This year, I felt that there were problems with the reported figures. The Epidemiological Unit (EU), which had been updating figures at least weekly, took a break from May 18th to June 15th. During this time, media reports indicated government concern with the dengue outbreak;

" Dr Palitha Maheepala, a top health ministry official said that there have been 11,795 dengue patients during the first five months of this year.
There were 74 deaths during this period."
http://www.business-standard.com/ge...a-concerned-over-surge-in-dengue-fever/19626/

"Jun 15, Colombo: Sri Lanka's Ministry of Health has warned that Dengue has now entered a pandemic stage as the resurgence of the mosquito-borne menace has killed 80 people and affected 14,500 others during the first six months of the year."
http://www.colombopage.com/archive_12A/Jun15_1339740989CH.php

When the EU resumed reporting on June 15th, the numbers published (12,165 cases and 65 fatalities) did not reflect those being released by MOH spokesmen. I found a number of anomalies in the results where districts that had reported hundreds of cases from January to April reported none from May or June. This was not in keeping with trends noted for those districts in 2010 and 2011. By June 20th, the EU reported 12,336 cases and 75 fatalities (cfr 0.61%).

July was declared National Dengue Eradication Month. Fatalities were being reported both by the media and by MOH spokesmen;

"Around 17,000 dengue cases and 85 dengue deaths have been reported from all parts of the country to date, Health Ministry Epidemiology Unit Director Dr Paba Palihawadana said yesterday." July 10th http://www.dailynews.lk/2012/07/10/news04.asp

"A second tragedy in National Dengue Eradication Month"
July 14th http://www.newsfirst.lk/english-news/index.php?view=news_more&id=14232

At this stage, the Health Minister began to play down the outbreak;

"Dengue has not reached epidemic levels or high proportions as claimed by some sections of the media and society, Health Minister Maithripala Sirisena said....the number of deaths reported due to accidents and Non Communicable Diseases (NCD) is higher than deaths caused by dengue. The minister said 74 persons had died due to dengue during the past six months."
http://www.dailynews.lk/2012/07/16/news03.asp

On July 17th, the EU released updated figures - 14,423 cases and 75 fatalities. In other words, officially only a little over 2,000 cases and not a single fatality reported in the past month. Of course on closer examination, the figures were almost exactly the same as those quote by the MOH spokesman on June 15th!

On July 15th, the EU removed all fatality data from its website - including for previous years. Case numbers have reportedly mounted to 28,083 as of Aug 30th - many of these cases are late reports from May, June and July being backfilled in. A recent media report gave the number of fatalities as 85. If this is to be believed, then the cfr has dropped by a factor of 10 since June 20th.

I find this to be very unlikely. Last years cfr was 0.61% and the cfr to June 20th this year was 0.61%. There have been 28,083 reported cases to August 30th, significantly higher than the same period last year. These cases have likely resulted in somewhere around 171 fatalities.

In my opinion, Public Health and Safety benefits from openness and transparency.
 
Re: Sri Lanka Dengue 2012: 85 fatalities

Re: Sri Lanka Dengue 2012: 85 fatalities

Updated September 5th to 28,957 cases. 874 new cases added in the past 6 days, 582 of those added to August (total 4,069).
http://www.epid.gov.lk/web/index.php?option=com_casesanddeaths&Itemid=448&lang=en

Sri Lanka no longer publishes fatality figures. Using the cfr of .608% (established to June 20th - see earlier posts for details) this allows an estimate of 176 fatal cases.
 
Re: Sri Lanka Dengue 2012: 85 fatalities

Re: Sri Lanka Dengue 2012: 85 fatalities

Updated September 11th to 29,762 cases. 805 new cases added in the past 6 days, 542 of those added to August (total 4,611) and 215 to September (total 215).
http://www.epid.gov.lk/web/index.php?option=com_casesanddeaths&Itemid=448&lang=en

Sri Lanka no longer publishes fatality figures. Using the cfr of .608% (established to June 20th - see earlier posts for details) this allows an estimate of 181 fatal cases.
 
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