Speculation on Georgia DCH hospitalization numbers:

[Ronan Kelly]

Speculation on Georgia DCH hospitalization numbers:

It looks like there are three options here;

1. The figures 80 and 72 are real numbers, Everybody gets worried, holds hastily arranged press conference to draw attention to the situation and then "hides" the numbers in a revision for some reason.

2. The figures 80 and 72 were erroneous, Everybody gets worried (because nobody read the complete weekly report and relied on the cumulative table), holds hastily arranged press conference and then "hides" the error in a revision.

3. The figures 80 and 72 were erroneous, but not relevant to the hastily arranged CDC press conference, which was going to address the rising in Georgia hospitalizations anyway, and then Georgia DCH "hides" the error in a revision.

I think that scenario 1 is unlikely, 2 and 3 are possible and given the lack of notice for the Press Conference, I'm leaning towards 2. In which case, there is an obvious need for quality control in the chain of information. I'd be interested in what anybody else thinks happened.......

 

[Vibrant62]

Re: Speculation on Georgia DCH hospitalization numbers:

I find it inconceivable that the CDC would hold a press conference of this nature without calling to discuss the ongoing situation in Georgia and probably contacting the hospital admins - and checking the numbers, even the 'provisional ones', enquiring about the general condition, age and other information regarding those hospitalised. So, I am more inclined to believe that the numbers are a hypbrid between those confirmed and those suspect.

It could also be that the situation in Georgia was just what they were 'looking for' to reinvigorate a call for everyone to get vaccinated... I think that time will tell, as I am sure this will get addressed in the next update.

 

[Missouriwatcher]

Re: Speculation on Georgia DCH hospitalization numbers:

Interestingly, the Press Release of Mar 24, still stands...

"There have been a total of 1,012 H1N1 hospitalizations and 72 influenza associated deaths in Georgia since April 2009."
http://dch.georgia.gov/00/press/detail/0,2668,31446711_31450193_157887077,00.html

 

[Ronan Kelly]

Re: Speculation on Georgia DCH hospitalization numbers:

This is the latest table on the DCH website.
Time Frame Hospitalizations Total # Deaths
4/26 - 8/29/09 (cumulative) 194 7
8/30/09 - 9/5/09 57 2
9/6/09 - 9/12/09 32 4
9/13/09 - 9/19/09 70 5
9/20/09 - 9/26/09 59 3
9/27/09 - 10/3/09 53 2
10/4/09 - 10/10/09 60 2
10/11/09 - 10/17/09 28 4
10/18/09 - 10/24/09 28 4
10/25/09 - 10/31/09 22 4
11/1/09 - 11/7/09 23 1
11/8/09 - 11/14/09 22 3
11/15/09 - 11/21/09 10 3
11/22/09 - 11/28/09 12 1
11/29/09 - 12/5/09 3 0
12/6/09 - 12/12/09 9 2
12/13/09 - 12/19/09 5 1
12/20/09 - 12/26/09 2 0
12/27/09 - 1/2/10 25 0
1/3/10 - 1/9/10 26 0
1/10/10 - 1/16/10 15 0
1/17/10 - 1/23/10 10 2
1/24/10 - 1/30/10 20 1
1/31/10 - 2/6/10 16 3
2/7/10 - 2/13/10 22 2
2/14/10 - 2/20/10 36 4
2/21/10 - 2/27/10 38 3
2/28/10 - 3/6/10 42 2
3/7/10 - 3/13/10 29 1
3/14/10 - 3/20/10 43 1
3/21/10 - 3/27/10 16 1
3/28/10 - 4/3/10 13 1
Total 1041 62

The fatalities indicated add up to 69, not the 62 total of the table. That error aside, the table includes only H1N1 confirmed fatalities. JimO suggested that the 72 figure may include A/B/unsubtyped fatalities.

The number 1012 hospitalizations for March 24 was correct using the data up to 3/20.
http://dch.georgia.gov/00/channel_title/0,2094,31446711_148304655,00.html

 

[JimO]

Re: Speculation on Georgia DCH hospitalization numbers:

This is the latest table on the DCH website.
Time Frame Hospitalizations Total # Deaths

Total 1041 62

The fatalities indicated add up to 69, not the 62 total of the table. That error aside, the table includes only H1N1 confirmed fatalities. JimO suggested that the 72 figure may include A/B/unsubtyped fatalities.

The number 1012 hospitalizations for March 24 was correct using the data up to 3/20.

Now I'm really confused. I have always assumed that the total at the bottom of the cumulative table was the total. It appears to be the total for the season (62) and does not include the 7 deaths prior to September 1st. I never bothered to add it up - good catch Ro!

Now the question is, Are there only 3 "unconfirmed" deaths for a total of 72 or are there 12 "unconfirmed" deaths, making the total 81?

I tend to think that the total is still 72, since the press release likely counted the 7 earlier deaths.

 

[JimO]

Re: Speculation on Georgia DCH hospitalization numbers:

http://dch.georgia.gov/00/channel_title/0,2094,31446711_148304655,00.html

Total - 1041 - 69

Well, what do you know? They just corrected the total on the table. Good job Ro!

 

[JimO]

Re: Speculation on Georgia DCH hospitalization numbers:

It appears to me that, assuming the hospitalization numbers are correct, there is no anomaly in Georgia. The hospitalizations and deaths did increase for a few weeks, but are down again. That is unless the CDC knows something that hasn't been reported yet. There was mention of a large number of hospitalizations in western Georgia. Does anyone know where that information came from?

I guess that it's always possible that more hospitalizations have occurred for suspected cases that won't be posted until they are confirmed.