tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
J Int Med Res. 2018 Jan 1:300060518764268. doi: 10.1177/0300060518764268. [Epub ahead of print]
[h=1]Simulation of key interventions for seasonal influenza outbreak control at school in Changsha, China.[/h] Chen T[SUP]1[/SUP], Zhao B[SUP]2[/SUP], Liu R[SUP]1[/SUP], Zhang X[SUP]1[/SUP], Xie Z[SUP]1[/SUP], Chen S[SUP]1[/SUP].
[h=3]Author information[/h]
[h=3]Abstract[/h] Objective To use a mathematical model to simulate an influenza outbreak in a school in order to assess the effectiveness of isolation (Iso), antiviral therapeutics, antiviral prophylactics (P), vaccination prior to the outbreak, and school closure (for 1 [S1w], 2 or 3 weeks). Methods This study developed a susceptible-exposed-infectious/asymptomatic-recovered model to estimate the effectiveness of commonly used interventions for seasonal influenza outbreaks in school. Results The most effective single-intervention strategy was isolation with a total attack rate of 1.99% and an outbreak duration of 30 days. The additional effectiveness of antiviral therapeutics and prophylactics and vaccination (prior to the outbreak) strategies were not obvious. Although Iso+P, P+Iso+S1w, four-, and five-combined intervention strategies had commendable effectiveness, total attack rate decreased only slightly, and outbreak duration was shortened by 9 days maximum, compared with the single-intervention isolation strategy. School closure for 1, 2 or 3 weeks was futile or even counterproductive. Conclusion Isolation, as a single intervention, was the most effective in terms of reducing the total attack rate and the duration of the outbreak.
[h=4]KEYWORDS:[/h] Seasonal influenza; effectiveness; isolation; mathematical model; outbreak
PMID: 29569977 DOI: 10.1177/0300060518764268
[h=1]Simulation of key interventions for seasonal influenza outbreak control at school in Changsha, China.[/h] Chen T[SUP]1[/SUP], Zhao B[SUP]2[/SUP], Liu R[SUP]1[/SUP], Zhang X[SUP]1[/SUP], Xie Z[SUP]1[/SUP], Chen S[SUP]1[/SUP].
[h=3]Author information[/h]
[h=3]Abstract[/h] Objective To use a mathematical model to simulate an influenza outbreak in a school in order to assess the effectiveness of isolation (Iso), antiviral therapeutics, antiviral prophylactics (P), vaccination prior to the outbreak, and school closure (for 1 [S1w], 2 or 3 weeks). Methods This study developed a susceptible-exposed-infectious/asymptomatic-recovered model to estimate the effectiveness of commonly used interventions for seasonal influenza outbreaks in school. Results The most effective single-intervention strategy was isolation with a total attack rate of 1.99% and an outbreak duration of 30 days. The additional effectiveness of antiviral therapeutics and prophylactics and vaccination (prior to the outbreak) strategies were not obvious. Although Iso+P, P+Iso+S1w, four-, and five-combined intervention strategies had commendable effectiveness, total attack rate decreased only slightly, and outbreak duration was shortened by 9 days maximum, compared with the single-intervention isolation strategy. School closure for 1, 2 or 3 weeks was futile or even counterproductive. Conclusion Isolation, as a single intervention, was the most effective in terms of reducing the total attack rate and the duration of the outbreak.
[h=4]KEYWORDS:[/h] Seasonal influenza; effectiveness; isolation; mathematical model; outbreak
PMID: 29569977 DOI: 10.1177/0300060518764268