• FluTrackers.com Inc. does not provide medical advice. Information on this web site is collected from various internet resources, and the FluTrackers board of directors makes no warranty to the safety, efficacy, correctness or completeness of the information posted on this site by any author or poster. The information collated here is for instructional and/or discussion purposes only and is NOT intended to diagnose or treat any disease, illness, or other medical condition. Every individual reader or poster should seek advice from their personal physician/healthcare practitioner before considering or using any interventions that are discussed on this website. By continuing to access this website you agree to consult your personal physican before using any interventions posted on this website, and you agree to hold harmless FluTrackers.com Inc., the board of directors, the members, and all authors and posters for any effects from use of any medication, supplement, vitamin or other substance, device, intervention, etc. mentioned in posts on this website, or other internet venues referenced in posts on this website.
  • We are not asking for any donations. Do not donate to any entity who says they are raising funds for us.

Severe Flu Cases Surge in Manitoba - Aboriginal Community Hit Hard

Re: Suspected H1N1 flu outbreak hits isolated First Nations reserve

Re: Suspected H1N1 flu outbreak hits isolated First Nations reserve

I'm not sure the media quote, from a non-medical person, is really confirmation that it is influenza A. This could be conjecture based on the symptoms.

An alternate idea is http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blastomycosis which is prevalent in the Kenora area, and likely in St. Theresa Point because it is Canadian Shield country with similar soil and water conditions.

We'll see.

J.
 
Re: Suspected H1N1 flu outbreak hits isolated First Nations reserve

Re: Suspected H1N1 flu outbreak hits isolated First Nations reserve

The person being quoted is the mayor (chief?) of the town. I trust he has been accurately informed.

Your possible diagnosis seems to have an incubation period of 30-100 days, and doesn't appear contagious. The timing seems really off. And some of the symptoms there would certainly be alarming in a suspected flu patient.

But I like your creative thinking. I might have been looking for something bizarre like that if we got to Thursday morning with still no diagnosis.
 
Re: Suspected H1N1 flu outbreak hits isolated First Nations reserve

Re: Suspected H1N1 flu outbreak hits isolated First Nations reserve

This is a second source (originally in French), confirming that the chief has been informed that this is influenza, although this one still refers to both women as pregnant, although my reading to the first article does not make it clear whether one or both women were pregnant.

http://www.radio-canada.ca/regions/manitoba/2009/06/02/003-grippe-Theresa.shtml
 
Re: Suspected H1N1 flu outbreak hits isolated First Nations reserve

Re: Suspected H1N1 flu outbreak hits isolated First Nations reserve

My guess now is about a 99% probability of novel H1N1, with a 1% chance of this being seasonal flu. Note that the article that I preceded with the "I LOVE THE MNL" quote mentions that the town did not have any doctors in it before this outbreak, just a nurses station. Those 10 kids are not necessarily as ill as hospitalization might seem. I think that is just the only way to get them to see doctors.
 
Re: Suspected H1N1 flu outbreak hits isolated First Nations reserve

Re: Suspected H1N1 flu outbreak hits isolated First Nations reserve

My guess now is about a 99% probability of novel H1N1, with a 1% chance of this being seasonal flu. Note that the article that I preceded with the "I LOVE THE MNL" quote mentions that the town did not have any doctors in it before this outbreak, just a nurses station. Those 10 kids are not necessarily as ill as hospitalization might seem. I think that is just the only way to get them to see doctors.
I would say its north of 99.9%. There is VERY little seasonal flu in the northern hemisphere at this time, and the little still around doesn't cause outbreaks. Once they said influenza A, they essentially said swine H1N1.
 
Re: Suspected H1N1 flu outbreak hits isolated First Nations reserve

Re: Suspected H1N1 flu outbreak hits isolated First Nations reserve

I would say its north of 99.9%. There is VERY little seasonal flu in the northern hemisphere at this time, and the little still around doesn't cause outbreaks. Once they said influenza A, they essentially said swine H1N1.

I agree.
 
Re: Suspected H1N1 flu outbreak hits isolated First Nations reserve

Re: Suspected H1N1 flu outbreak hits isolated First Nations reserve

I tend to agree as well, but I do wonder a little about the concentration of serious illness. Obviously, most of the town probably has had milder illness, and a reservation would tend to be a place to find pre-existing conditions, and this one might have some TB underlying (see the comment on the link to the CBC article), but there is a lot of serious illness here. Might there have been a mutation?
 
Re: Suspected H1N1 flu outbreak hits isolated First Nations reserve

Re: Suspected H1N1 flu outbreak hits isolated First Nations reserve

The diabetes rate might be elevated and also, since they are remote, they may have less natural immunity that might exist - if any.

Influenza is a dangerous disease. We know very little about how different hosts respond to the same virus.
 
Re: Suspected H1N1 flu outbreak hits isolated First Nations reserve

Re: Suspected H1N1 flu outbreak hits isolated First Nations reserve

I tend to agree as well, but I do wonder a little about the concentration of serious illness. Obviously, most of the town probably has had milder illness, and a reservation would tend to be a place to find pre-existing conditions, and this one might have some TB underlying (see the comment on the link to the CBC article), but there is a lot of serious illness here. Might there have been a mutation?
My guess is its a homogenous population with little prior exposure and less than ideal health. My guess is the number infected will be VERY high.
 
Re: Suspected H1N1 flu outbreak hits isolated First Nations reserve

Re: Suspected H1N1 flu outbreak hits isolated First Nations reserve

My guess is its a homogenous population with little prior exposure and less than ideal health. My guess is the number infected will be VERY high.

The town only has about 2,700 people. It can't get higher than that.
 
Re: Suspected H1N1 flu outbreak hits isolated First Nations reserve

Re: Suspected H1N1 flu outbreak hits isolated First Nations reserve

Source: http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/breakingnews/suspected-h1n1-flu-outbreak-hits-reserve-46706707.html

St. Theresa Point community leaders held a meeting Monday afternoon to discuss how to pull together a pandemic plan.McDougall said the community lacks the infrastructure to deal with a full-scale outbreak and that a potential pandemic could spread quickly since residents live in overcrowded homes.

I tripped across a blogpost that raises some questions about the H1N1 virus and conditions in reserve communities, and jurisdictional difficulties with health care. A good read. More here if your interested.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Re: Suspected H1N1 flu outbreak hits isolated First Nations reserve

Re: Suspected H1N1 flu outbreak hits isolated First Nations reserve

Welcome K.Taylor!
 
Re: Suspected H1N1 flu outbreak hits isolated First Nations reserve

Re: Suspected H1N1 flu outbreak hits isolated First Nations reserve

K.Taylor Welcome!​
 
Re: Suspected H1N1 flu outbreak hits isolated First Nations reserve

Re: Suspected H1N1 flu outbreak hits isolated First Nations reserve

Source: http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/br...fears-swine-flu-pandemic-coming-46802812.html


First Nation fears swine flu pandemic coming

Dozen residents hospitalized so far

By: Jen Skerritt

3/06/2009 1:00 AM |
NURSES handed out face masks on Tuesday as preparations for a pandemic kicked into high gear in St. Theresa Point First Nation over heightened concern a severe flu will continue to infect healthy children and adults.

The isolated fly-in community of 3,200 could be the first in Manitoba to be hit hard by a suspected swine flu outbreak, confirming the "worst fears" of First Nations leaders who warned impoverished aboriginal reserves are ill-equipped to deal with widespread infections.

Chief David McDougall confirmed Tuesday an additional five children were flown to Winnipeg Monday night, bringing the total number of St. Theresa Point residents hospitalized to 12. In the last week, two pregnant women were medevaced to intensive care along with five other children who fell ill with severe flu symptoms.

One woman lost her child as a result of the illness. McDougall said lab tests have confirmed a strain of influenza is circulating, but there's still no word on whether the virus is the human swine flu that's surfaced worldwide.


On Tuesday, many residents wore masks to protect themselves as community leaders shut the school and told workers to stay home to avoid getting sick.

"The infection is influenza A, but what exactly it is, it will take days of more testing before we ascertain what it is," McDougall said.

McDougall said the big concern is that overcrowded homes make it easy for flu viruses to spread from person to person and infect more people. Close to half of the 1,300 residents who visited the nursing station in May reported flu-like symptoms.

That's a sharp increase from the typical 800 visits made to the nursing station in a month, McDougall said.

A total of 41 residents were transported to Winnipeg last month, including at least 14 who reported a respiratory illness.

Health officials have flown in at least two additional nurses and two doctors to deal with the emerging respiratory crisis in the remote community, located 500 kilometres northeast of Winnipeg.

Federal health officials did not respond to a request by the Free Press for an interview, but said in an email statement they are committed to protecting the health and well-being of First Nations populations.

"Health Canada is working closely with the community, Manitoba Health, Burntwood Regional Health Authority, the Public Health Agency of Canada and First Nations leadership to ensure support and information on the management of influenza is available to the community," the statement said.

To date, 11 Manitobans have tested positive for swine flu, including two Winnipeggers who have been hospitalized.

One man, a Manitoba Hydro employee in his 30s who works in Wuskwatim, remains in serious condition.

"He's in a delicate situation," said Manitoba Hydro spokesman Glenn Schneider.

Manitoba Grand Chief Ron Evans said St. Theresa Point is an example of what can happen when governments fail to address the poor social conditions that can help disease spread. Evans said the lack of health-care professionals and overcrowded homes make many communities prone to devastating effects of outbreaks, noting pandemic planning in many areas is still a work in progress.


"It gives you a good sense of how terrible and tragic will be when a community has to deal with an epidemic," Evans said. "No one expected H1N1 to surface at this time so the communities are caught off guard."

jen.skerritt@freepress.mb.ca
 
Re: Suspected H1N1 flu outbreak hits isolated First Nations reserve

Re: Suspected H1N1 flu outbreak hits isolated First Nations reserve

Updated map

<a rel="nofollow" href="http://flutracker.rhiza.com">Maps</a>
 
Re: Suspected H1N1 flu outbreak hits isolated First Nations reserve

Re: Suspected H1N1 flu outbreak hits isolated First Nations reserve

Source: McDougall said the big concern is ...ossible denominator - maybe 650 milder cases?
 
Re: Suspected H1N1 flu outbreak hits isolated First Nations reserve

Re: Suspected H1N1 flu outbreak hits isolated First Nations reserve

My guess now is about a 99% probability of novel H1N1, with a 1% chance of this being seasonal flu. Note that the article that I preceded with the "I LOVE THE MNL" quote mentions that the town did not have any doctors in it before this outbreak, just a nurses station. Those 10 kids are not necessarily as ill as hospitalization might seem. I think that is just the only way to get them to see doctors.

Yes, this is a reasonable statement. There is lots of northern travel to Winnipeg due to medical matters that would normally be deemed "minor" in southern communities or cities.

On the other hand, discounting the medical care due to only having a nurses station, and no doctors, is not warranted, IMO. The northern nursing stations have very dedicated professionals staffing them. Nurses in MB can be "nurse practicioners" with much greater training and authority to diagnose and treat patients.

Even if the northern nursing stations are not staffed with nurse practicitioners, the northern medical unit of the University of Manitoba may be providing assistance. http://www.umanitoba.ca/faculties/medicine/units/northern_medical_unit/

And there is extensive communications networks set up with southern healthcare professionals.

But what there is not, is lab facilities. So it's quite possible that a southern physician said "it's probably influenza A" to the northern nurse, who then said the same thing to the chief, who then said it to the media - but withouth lab confirmation at all.

So until we hear of lab confirmation from a medical person, this could be ordinary influenza, any flu-like symptom disease, or H1N1-SOIV.

On the SOIV - look at the possible linkages with the US or Mexico, especially with school kids. We've heard no stories of major school trips, which to the US are unlikely anyway due to cost.

But look at the statements about overcrowded living conditions. This is a very real and chronic situation up north. So an ordinary influenza or noravirus could be devastating.

And look at the politics. Health care in the north is extremely controversial, so jumping to an association with SOIV may seem to create a press-worthy argument.

Yes, I could be entirly wrong. But I'm still waiting for other confirmation statements from health officials.
'
J.
 
Re: Suspected H1N1 flu outbreak hits isolated First Nations reserve

Re: Suspected H1N1 flu outbreak hits isolated First Nations reserve

.

On the SOIV - look at the possible linkages with the US or Mexico, especially with school kids. We've heard no stories of major school trips, which to the US are unlikely anyway due to cost.

But look at the statements about overcrowded living conditions. This is a very real and chronic situation up north. So an ordinary influenza or noravirus could be devastating.

J.

And this is the key question. Where did this outbreak come from. There is some H1N1 in Manitoba, including 6 confirmed cases in Winnipeg. There could easily be more, milder cases, and one of these cases could have traveled to this community. If it is H1N1, that is likely the source.

If it is a common seasonal pathogen, then there is no trouble finding the source; those things are everywhere. The only question is why are teh illnesses so severe? But your post may answer that as well (crowded living conditions. . .)

The third possibility, and the one that scared me most, was a novel agent. There would certainly be lots of birds and other wildlife up there, seeing as the town is on a lake. If we don't have a clear diagnosis by tomorrow, we might need to investigate this one further...

The article in post #34 indicates that McDougall (the chief/mayor) BELIEVES that influenza A has been confirmed in a lab. I realize that is not the same thing as a lab announcing that influenza A is confirmed, but it makes it more likely than not. If a pathogen other than influenza A is confirmed, this chief/mayor is going to have a lot of explaining to do.
 
Re: Suspected H1N1 flu outbreak hits isolated First Nations reserve

Re: Suspected H1N1 flu outbreak hits isolated First Nations reserve

But what there is not, is lab facilities. So it's quite possible that a southern physician said "it's probably influenza A" to the northern nurse, who then said the same thing to the chief, who then said it to the media - but withouth lab confirmation at all.

J.
This is an ONGOING situation (since May) and I would think that influenza A is lab confirmed (and they are just working on the press reelase for swine H1N1).
 
Re: Suspected H1N1 flu outbreak hits isolated First Nations reserve

Re: Suspected H1N1 flu outbreak hits isolated First Nations reserve

This is an ONGOING situation (since May) and I would think that influenza A is lab confirmed (and they are just working on the press reelase for swine H1N1).

I hope you're right.

Man, what has this world come to when we are hoping for a pandemic virus in a remote town? The past six weeks have been bizarre.

But acutally, if 41 people had been flown to Winnipeg hospitals for treatment, one of them could easily have come in contact with an undiagnosed H1N1 patient in the hospital, and then flew back to St. Theresa's point and accidentally started the outbreak. Those 41 evacuations greatly reduce the amount of H1N1 necessary in Winnipeg to cause this outbreak.
 
Back
Top Bottom