season 2012/3 vs. 1999/0 and 2003/4

[gsgs]

google flu trend daily, since 2012-01-27 (google updates at ~14:30 MET)

(max2009,max2012)0127,0128,0129,0130,0131,0201,0202,0203,0204,0205,0206,0207,0208,0209,0210,0211,0212,0213,0214,0215,0219,0220,0221,0222,0223.0224,0225,0226,0227,0228,0301,0302,0307
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
de:   (1687,1144)1332,1386,1446,1496,1535,1579,1611,1641,1672,1722,1770,1806,1837,1851,1876,1902,1913,1943,1987,2005,2127,2127,2109,2096,2068,2023,1977,1938,1896,1862,1816,1781,1535
fr:   (0874,0498)0703,0800,0898,0997,1089,1162,1235,1278,1303,1311,1274,1258,1321,1328,1324,1308,1279,1282,1256,1167,1069,1047,1024,0982,0943,0894,0809,0757.0677,0608,0540,0481,0275
fr,ra:(1379,0727)0929,1025,1142,1233,1356,1419,1561,1641,1699,1783,1796,1766,1931,1877,1834,1728,1627,1587,1522,1315,1146,1112,1079,1067,1004,1002,0882,0798,0683,0610,0533,0477,0273
ch:   (0262,0204)0598,0634,0665,0688,0722,0725,0718,0719,0711,0690,0682,0672,0670,0681,0687,0695,0702,0702,0703,0696,0628,0610,0586,0561,0552,0537,0516,0507,0486,0462,0447,0417,0311
nl:   (0199,0096)0233,0245,0246,0256,0271,0275,0270,0270,0259,0247,0225,0204,0192,0184,0174,0164,0161,0162,0160,0160,0180,0174,0166,0159,0150,0141,0131,0122,0118,0112,0113,0110,0090
be:   (0866,0543)0802,0899,1005,1106,1238,1365,1469,1499,1567,1565,1493,1475,1465,1406,1387,1334,1276,1236,1189,1075,1066,1042,0941,0891,0844,0753,0653,0603,0562,0557,0538,0501,0394
at:   (1524,1540)1598,...,.....,1881,1972,2022,2052,2063,2084,2068,2082,2097,2137,2114,2141,2203,2217,2208,2216,2212,2341,2390,2397,2409,2408,2408,2366,2322,2256,2201,2150,2105,1806
us:   (7112,2860)9408,9130,8998,8603,8165,7808,7492,7209,6868,6542,6252,6018,5819,5664,5541,5445,5251,5064,4912,4753,4368,4325,4278,4279,4261,4240,4188,4131,4049,3980,3917,3845,3595
jp:   (1137,2341)3872,4405,5032,5340,5430,5375,5309,5273,5083,4765,4329,3971,3653,3311,3057,2680,2422,2249,2063,1902,1514,1442,1412,1388,1383,1381,1380.1334,1294,1234,1193,1155,0890

actual google flu trends , daily or weekly updated, here in this first post USA,

Jan.26: early states are clearly down now, still up in Sacramento
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/attachment.php?attachmentid=15880&stc=1&d=1359210246


172 US-weekly charts from GFT, 2013.02.24: location-names see post 10
latest is West Hollywood, which is still close to the peak in week 9

comparing 1999/0,2003/4,2012/3 , weekly updated (Friday or Saturday)

--- the peak is not so high in 2012f, but it stays quite long at high level--- (week 5)

img]http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/attachment.php?attachmentid=16171&stc=1&d=1364618074[/img]

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/attachment.php?attachmentid=16053&stc=1&d=1362222228[/img]

img]http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/attachment.php?attachmentid=16008&stc=1&d=1361590525[/img]


2003/4 started even earlier than 2012/3 and was probably more severe than 2012/3 will be,
but 1999/0 could be compared.
1999/0 was also worse than average and started in week 47 in region 9 (IMO),
it peaked in week 52 in regions 4,5,7,8,9,10 and in week 1 in regions 1,2,3,6.
I'd assign the "start", the week where it got considerably steeper than a week wave,to :

actually in week 51 regions 1,2,3,4,5 are worse than in 1999 while 6,7,8,9,10 are weaker,
especially 9 (CA,NV,AZ)

week : regions 1999 - regions 2012
47:9 - 4,6
49:8 - 3,5
50:5,7 - 8,10
51:1,3,4,10 - 1,2

img]http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/attachment.php?attachmentid=15562&stc=1&d=1356769636[/img]

the 2012 data for region 9 look incorrect, so the national average for 2012, week 51
should be a bit higher (still not as high as 1999)


CDC modified the 122 Cities MRS case definition for reporting P&I deaths for the 1999-2000 season.
http://www.biomedcentral.com/1472-6947/12/37
http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm4909a1.htm



in weeks 40,...,07 there is more ILI in total now than in 1999f , since it goes down slower

more than 1999f in USA(all),and regions 8,7,6,5,4,2
more than in 2003f in regions 2,4,7

most was region 6 (Texas) fewest in region 1 (Boston)

sum of adjusted ILI-ratios for weeks 40...07 in USA, 3 seasons, 10 regions

         1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10   all
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1999f: 32.7  53.9  66.2  49.0  37.1  67.7  52.9  34.7  95.4  58.3  57.3 
2003f: 42.1  46.7  66.2  51.5  63.0 108.4  62.4  52.8  67.3  63.0  64.2 
2012f: 32.5  57.8  55.9  56.5  48.6  94.6  64.0  45.2  66.1  34.8  59.4

--------------------------------------------------------------
in total (weeks 40-20) this was more ILI now in 2012f, than in 1999f or 2003f because of the slow decline.

 sum of adjusted ILI-ratios for weeks 40...20 in USA, 3 early seasons, 10 regions

region   1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10   all
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
1999f: 36.2  67.7 101.8  57.0  43.1  72.0  62.7  37.6 109.2  61.6  68.6 
2003f: 46.5  63.6  85.8  59.6  72.3 118.7  71.9  60.1  78.1  70.4  75.1 
2012f: 47.4  84.8  80.2  74.5  67.7 125.8  82.3  62.0  95.2  44.4  82.0

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[Missouriwatcher]

Re: season 2012/3 vs. 1999/0

Re: season 2012/3 vs. 1999/0

Region 9: GM(NO ACTIVITY); CA (SPORADIC); HI (SPORADIC); AZ(REGIONAL); NV(WIDESPREAD). CDC: 2 out of 5 elevated, and NORMAL out-patient ILI. CA has yet to see ILI increases above baseline, thereby keeping track below other years. The ILI has been slowing inching upward and CA week 51 not published as of yet. Expect to see higher ILI and percent positive, leading to increased hospitalizations.
http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/
http://www.cdph.ca.gov/HealthInfo/discond/Pages/Influenza(Flu).aspx

Note that OR (in Region 10) has continued to report LOCAL. Its ILI dropped this week (likely due to holiday). So flu has been slow to take hold on the west coast.
http://public.health.oregon.gov/Dis...SurveillanceData/Influenza/Pages/surveil.aspx

 

[gsgs]

Re: season 2012/3 vs. 1999/0

Re: season 2012/3 vs. 1999/0

google flu trend shows peaks in some states.
But peak-like structures in almost all states -
this could be due to the holidays, we saw such
things in previous years. The next data-point should show it

 

[Missouriwatcher]

Re: season 2012/3 vs. 1999/0

Re: season 2012/3 vs. 1999/0

It will be interesting to see if school holiday break made any difference in the spread of flu. Most schools around MO/KS are starting back today or tomorrow.

 

[sharon sanders]

Re: season 2012/3 vs. 1999/0

Re: season 2012/3 vs. 1999/0

Thanks for posting this thread and posting on it. I am very interested to see the outcome of this season.

 

[gsgs]

Re: season 2012/3 vs. 1999/0

Re: season 2012/3 vs. 1999/0

update from SC week 51 today looks not so good (3.5%-->6.2%)
after going down from 3.9% to 3.5% in week 50.

But then, 6.2% is still "normal" for that region

ILI weeks 42..04
-------------------------
CD,18,20,19,18,22,25,40,31,36,32,68,59,63
US,13,14,15,16,18,24,23,30,36,46,61,50,--
R4,12,13,14,18,21,31,30,46,49,55,67,44,--
B4,18,19,22,25,31,48,45,70,84,93,113,62,--

TN,06,05,12,18,22,45,33,53,66,68,81,69,--
AL,19,18,18,20,30,54,53,80,88,90,114,72,70
GA,10,14,15,20,24,35,30,42,49,50,52,52,--
SC,04,03,03,04,05,09,20,39,35,62,58,21,19
MS,44,44,48,47,57,74,74,93,101,130,139,94,--
NC,04,09,11,15,15,18,22,51,63,48,90,54,38

FL,16,16,18,18,23,22,20,25,26,28,49,32,28
IN,12,05,06,05,06,10,09,20,34,40,73,37,41
KA,10,08,17,11,09,10,12,24,27,33,60,61,45
TX,28,36,39,44,42,70,52,68,75,101,114,98,--
LA,26,32,33,37,39,47,48,55,64,78,86,68,--
NY,08,10,09,07,09,10,18,18,22,30,32,66,43
CA,24,24,25,25,24,26,24,24,28,37,48,54,--
IL,15,15,16,17,17,21,19,27,38,45,61,51,--

(sometimes the data is retrospectively corrected)
(NC,05,08,10,16,16,19,21,52,70,80,107,--)
AL,19,18,18,20,30,54,53,84,98,96,127,66
IN(corrected),05,06,06,09,07,09,13,23,34,52,72,39,41


links to US-state reports:

AL,AK,AZ,AR,CA
CO,CT,DE,DC,FL,
GA,HI,ID,IL,IN,
IA,KA,KY,LA,ME,
MD,MA,MI,MN,MS,
MO,MT,NA,NV,NH,
NJ,NM,NY,NC,ND,
OH,OK,OR,PA,RI,
SC,SD,TN,TX,UT,
VT,VA,WA,WV,WI,
WY,NYC,VI,

(CA dead)
http://www.cdph.ca.gov/HealthInfo/discond/Documents/Final_FluReport_Ending_010513_V2.pdf

 

[gsgs]

Re: season 2012/3 vs. 1999/0

Re: season 2012/3 vs. 1999/0

Google flu-trends shows peaks in some states
but peak-like structures in almost all states,
this could be due to the holidays, we saw
that earlier. The next data-point should show it ...

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/attachment.php?attachmentid=15633&stc=1&d=1357361466


peaking states one line per day



Google Flu Trends is updated daily

 

[sharon sanders]

Re: season 2012/3 vs. 1999/0

Re: season 2012/3 vs. 1999/0

Google flu-trends shows peaks in some states
but peak-like structures in almost all states,
this could be due to the holidays, we saw
that earlier. The next data-point should show it ...

Google Flu Trends is updated daily

So it appears a few states have reached a peak and are trending downward?

I think people in those states can not rely on google trends.as a precise method to measure a flu outbreak. They still need to contact their medical practitioner about a possible flu shot and also they need to be aware of several non-pharmaceutical practices like frequent hand washing, sneeze into the sleeve and social distancing.

 

[gsgs]

Re: season 2012/3 vs. 1999/0

Re: season 2012/3 vs. 1999/0

in those states it's probably too late for the shot. NY,IL maybe , CA yes.
Hopefully it goes goes down in these 4 leaders on Friday ...
I remember there were fake peaks earlier, was it 2009

 

[gsgs]

Re: season 2012/3 vs. 1999/0

Re: season 2012/3 vs. 1999/0

google flu trend 2012/3 (so far) and 2003/4
(1999/0 is not available)

Verein Delawa Iowa.. Minnes New Me Rhode  Washin HHS Re Little Beverl San Jo Hialea Smyrna Lexing St Pau Greens Albany Oklaho Provid Dallas Salt L Seattl 
igte S re.... ...... ota... xico.. Island gton.. gion 5  Rock, y Hill se, CA h, FL. , GA.. ton, K l, MN. boro,  , NY.. ma Cit ence,  , TX.. ake Ci e, WA. 
taaten ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ......  (IL,   AR... s, CA. ...... ...... ...... Y..... ...... NC.... ...... y, OK. RI.... ...... ty, UT ...... 
...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... IN, MI ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... 
...... ....  ..... ...... ...... ...... , MN,  ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... 

Alabam Distri Kansas Missis New Yo South  West V HHS Re Mesa,  Fresno Santa  Jackso Honolu Baton  Kansas Raleig Buffal Tulsa, Columb Ft Wor Arling Spokan 
a..... ct of  ...... sippi. rk.... Caroli irgini gion 6 AZ.... , CA.. Clara, nville lu, HI Rouge,  City, h, NC. o, NY.  OK... ia, SC th, TX ton, V e, WA. 
...... Columb ...... ...... ...... na.... a.....  (AR,  ...... ......  CA... , FL.. ......  LA...  MO... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... A..... ...... 
...... ia.... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... LA, NM ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... 
... ...... .. ...... .... ...... ...... , OK,  .... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ..... ...... ...... ...... ...... 

Alaska Florid Kentuc Missou North  South  Wiscon HHS Re Phoeni Irvine Sunnyv Miami, Des Mo New Or Spring Lincol New Yo Beaver Greenv Housto Ashbur Madiso 
...... a..... ky.... ri.... Caroli Dakota sin... gion 7 x, AZ. , CA.. ale, C  FL... ines,  leans, field, n, NE. rk, NY ton, O ille,  n, TX. n, VA. n, WI. 
...... ...... ...... ...... na.... ...... ......  (IA,  ...... ...... A..... ...... IA....  LA...  MO... ...... ...... R..... SC.... ...... ...... ...... 
...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... KS, MO ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... 
.. ... .... .... ...... ...... ..... , NE). ...... ...... ...... ..... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... 

Arizon Georgi Louisi Montan North  Tennes Wyomin HHS Re Scotts Los An West H Orland Boise, Boston St Lou Omaha, Roches Eugene Knoxvi Irving Herndo Milwau 
a..... a..... ana... a..... Dakota see... g..... gion 8 dale,  geles, ollywo o, FL.  ID... , MA.. is, MO  NE... ter, N , OR.. lle, T , TX.. n, VA. kee, W 
...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ......  (CO,  AZ....  CA... od, CA ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... Y..... ...... N..... ...... ...... I..... 
...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... MT, ND ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... 
... ... ..... ... ...... ..... ... , SD,  ...... ...... ...... ...... ..... ...... ...... ..... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... 

Arkans Hawaii Maine. Nebras Ohio.. Texas. HHS Re HHS Re Tempe, Oaklan Colora Tampa, Chicag Somerv Jackso Newark Cincin Portla Memphi Lubboc Norfol ...... 
as.... ...... ...... ka.... ...... ...... gion 1 gion 9  AZ... d, CA. do Spr  FL... o, IL. ille,  n, MS. , NJ.. nati,  nd, OR s, TN. k, TX. k, VA. ...... 
...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ......  (CT,   (AZ,  ...... ...... ings,  ...... ...... MA.... ...... ...... OH.... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... 
...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ME, MA CA, HI ...... ...... CO.... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... .. 
.... .. . ....  . , NH,  , NV). ..... ...... ...... ..... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ......  

Kalifo Idaho. Maryla Nevada Oklaho Utah.. HHS Re HHS Re Tucson Sacram Denver Atlant Harwoo Baltim Cary,  Albuqu Clevel Philad Nashvi Plano, Reston ...... 
rnien. ...... nd.... ...... ma.... ...... gion 2 gion 1 , AZ.. ento,  , CO.. a, GA. d Heig ore, M NC.... erque, and, O elphia lle, T  TX... , VA.. ...... 
...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ......  (NJ,  0 (AK, ...... CA.... ...... ...... hts, I D..... ......  NM... H..... , PA.. N..... ...... ...... ...... 
...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... NY)...  ID, O ...... ...... ...... ...... L..... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... .. 
...... . .... .. ....  ...... R, WA) ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... .... ...... ...... ...... ...... ..... ......  

Colora Illino Massac New Ha Oregon Vermon HHS Re Anchor Alamed San Di Washin Norcro Indian Takoma Charlo Las Ve Columb Pittsb Addiso San An Richmo ...... 
do.... is.... husett mpshir ...... t..... gion 3 age, A a, CA. ego, C gton,  ss, GA apolis  Park, tte, N gas, N us, OH urgh,  n, TX. tonio, nd, VA ...... 
...... ...... s..... e..... ...... ......  (DE,  K..... ...... A..... DC.... ...... , IN..  MD... C..... V..... ...... PA.... ......  TX... ...... ...... 
...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... DC, MD ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... .. 
.... .... ...... ...... .. ... , PA,  ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ......  

Connec Indian Michig New Je Pennsy Virgin HHS Re Birmin Berkel San Fr Gaines Roswel Wichit Grand  Durham Reno,  Dayton State  Austin Midval Bellev ...... 
ticut. a..... an.... rsey.. lvania ia.... gion 4 gham,  ey, CA ancisc ville, l, GA. a, KS. Rapids , NC.. NV.... , OH.. Colleg , TX.. e, UT. ue, WA ...... 
...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ......  (AL,  AL.... ...... o, CA.  FL... ...... ...... , MI.. ...... ...... ...... e, PA. ...... ...... ...... ...... 
...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... FL, GA ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... .. 
...... ... .... ...... ...... .... , KY,  ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... .... ...... ...... ...... ...... ......

 

[gsgs]

Re: season 2012/3 vs. 1999/0

Re: season 2012/3 vs. 1999/0

I made the computer-readable file cdc12 .
http://magictour.free.fr/panflu/cdc12.7z
It has 448KB , 155KB when compressed with 7-zip in 5860 = 10*586 lines
and contains the weekly ILI-data from CDC 1997/8 - 2012/3
33+34+33+33+33+33+34+33+33+33+33+48+57+52+52+12=586 weeks

each line with 16 comma-separated entries:

01 HHSregion-1
02 season#
03 week_in_season
04 year
05 week
06 ILI counts for 0-4 year-old people
07 ..5-24y
08 ..25-49y , if available - else 0
09 ..25-64y
10 ..50-64y , if available - else 0
11 >64y
12 total ILI counts
13 patients
14 providers
15 % ILI unweighted
16 % ILI weighted


the first line is:
0,01,01,1997,40,15,22,0,7,0,0,44,7053,32,0.623848007939884,0.49853478965969

and the last line is:
9,16,12,2012,51,22,24,14,23,09,06,75,4107,23,1.82615,2.702119

it has DOS/Windows style cr/lf at the line-end, that can easily be
converted to UNIX/Linux style lf .

----------------------------------------------
when comparing CDC-data with google flu-trends, it seems
that google-data becomes a bit inflated over the time.
Maybe that's because more people are using google now
than in 2003 and they don't correct for this.
So the actual season is probably not as bad as google charts suggest.
The CDC ILI-% is lower, but also ~1week back.
The peak in the first stated was a bit confirmed today

 

[gsgs]

Re: season 2012/3 vs. 1999/0

Re: season 2012/3 vs. 1999/0

Alabama is up:
http://adph.org/Influenza/assets/ILI&BCLpositives.pdf

no peak yet in week 50/51

that makes me wonder about the google-"peaks" in MS,TN,GA,NC

 

[gsgs]

Re: season 2012/3 vs. 1999/0

Re: season 2012/3 vs. 1999/0

the US-military keeps her own flu surveillance system
http://www.afhsc.mil/fluReports

they say it's up in week 52 and outpatient or RME
visits seem to show this, but the chart of total
ILI incidence of "people at risk" doesn't show anything,
even going down since week 40.
Whether vaccinated or not

regions : EUCOM and PACOM
populations : service members and other beneficiaries

week1:
http://www.afhsc.mil/viewFlu?file=2012-2013/2013-01-10_AFHSCInfluenzaSummary.pdf

actual week: http://www.afhsc.mil/viewFlu?file=dodWeekly.pdf

 

[Missouriwatcher]

Re: season 2012/3 vs. 1999/0

Re: season 2012/3 vs. 1999/0

Google has Connecticut heading back up.
http://www.google.org/flutrends/us/#US-CT

 

[gsgs]

Re: season 2012/3 vs. 1999/0

Re: season 2012/3 vs. 1999/0

but not much
and the others are still going down, even more than yesterday

how reliable is google ?

we should have examined that already...

 

[gsgs]

Re: season 2012/3 vs. 1999/0

Re: season 2012/3 vs. 1999/0

the CDC update shows a pretty big increase in week 52

but smaller than 1999 so far, mainly because of region 9
grey:1999-0 , blue:2003/4 , black:2012/3

40  3106  3478  1765  632  377  9358  775878  1.206  1.163  
41  3317  3669  1778  673  370  9807  794919  1.234  1.188  
42  3324  3832  1765  655  380  9956  792512  1.256  1.283  
43  3453  4035  1773  658  380  10299  789508  1.304  1.291  
44  3634  4658  1957  760  387  11396  784393  1.453  1.428  
45  3954  4351  2076  673  456  11510  798975  1.441  1.397  
46  3923  4363  2170  798  474  11728  802029  1.462  1.458  
47  4125  3342  1813  681  431  10392  633774  1.640  1.559  
48  4238  3955  2060  815  413  11481  783165  1.466  1.342  
49  4024  4050  1941  772  442  11229  737911  1.522  1.486  
50  4579  4099  2083  846  550  12157  729067  1.667  1.637  
51  5017  3535  2070  818  521  11961  646123  1.851  1.830  
52  5243  3187  2320  947  670  12367  586027  2.110  2.100  
01  4514  3394  2342  1028  715  11993  678778  1.767  1.735  
02  4059  3638  2320  919  611  11547  746522  1.547  1.553  
03  4365  4024  2247  800  498  11934  722911  1.651  1.632  
04  4767  4798  2307  827  513  13212  785516  1.682  1.762  
05  5228  5347  2439  921  567  14502  774986  1.871  1.938  
06  5028  5545  2582  894  566  14615  784755  1.862  1.911  
07  5295  6002  2939  1054  668  15958  788060  2.025  2.106  
08  5247  5989  3009  1132  762  16139  764884  2.110  2.243  
09  5220  6236  3138  1153  768  16515  787373  2.097  2.223  
10  4821  6503  2841  1001  632  15798  747515  2.113  2.175  
11  5177  6774  3324  1187  703  17165  747968  2.295  2.387  
12  4422  5677  2822  988  609  14518  753304  1.927  1.968  
13  3807  5287  2487  923  550  13054  745163  1.752  1.856  
14  3583  4634  2342  844  573  11976  709840  1.687  1.702  
15  3254  4055  2116  773  549  10747  715076  1.503  1.539  
16  3002  4016  1991  721  394  10124  730692  1.386  1.381  
17  2638  3803  1831  664  435  9371  724983  1.293  1.296  
18  2509  3665  1730  637  456  8997  660440  1.362  1.397  
19  2528  3471  1562  663  424  8648  655356  1.320  1.347  
20  2465  3088  1546  591  375  8065  635500  1.269  1.233  
21  2542  3011  1460  484  380  7877  614420  1.282  1.232  
22  2477  2600  1277  447  353  7154  548690  1.304  1.269  
23  2337  2359  1288  458  336  6778  579874  1.169  1.118  
24  2228  2025  1150  427  302  6132  562388  1.090  1.095  
25  2250  1955  1113  404  279  6001  568940  1.055  1.108  
26  2165  1846  1058  419  287  5775  533327  1.083  1.100  
27  1909  1703  1010  384  277  5283  501604  1.053  1.124  
28  1908  1739  963  338  221  5169  552575  0.935  1.015  
29  1813  1631  909  315  242  4910  540468  0.908  0.940  
30  1749  1714  972  371  284  5090  554763  0.918  0.960  
31  1722  1689  1040  402  263  5116  532624  0.961  1.000  
32  1645  1697  976  372  281  4971  538452  0.923  0.935  
33  1698  1737  972  354  226  4987  546901  0.912  0.866  

34  2071  2085  1168  416  290  6030  579501  1.041  1.063  
35  1925  2254  1271  429  272  6151  583547  1.054  1.111  
36  1829  2152  1270  464  300  6015  537801  1.118  1.200  
37  2050  2639  1283  439  330  6741  591025  1.141  1.098  
38  2104  2629  1332  419  261  6745  590616  1.142  0.992  

39  1894  2286  1215  429  253  6077  486853  1.248  1.143  
40  2758  3669  1807  693  407  9334  774014  1.206  1.220  
41  2915  4029  1947  728  481  10100  754513  1.339  1.346  
42  3173  4214  1902  752  495  10536  800450  1.316  1.334  
43  3312  4234  1989  761  511  10807  788977  1.370  1.380  
44  3308  4388  2003  779  470  10948  731325  1.497  1.487  
45  3729  5129  2324  917  535  12634  778497  1.623  1.654  
46  3981  5437  2516  885  587  13406  767716  1.746  1.769  
47  4561  5245  2768  1082  669  14325  615747  2.326  2.298  
48  5072  6961  3914  1485  946  18378  817395  2.248  2.153  
49  6502  10776  4628  1788  1064  24758  822025  3.012  2.834  
50  7342  12747  5627  2054  1236  29006  796796  3.640  3.423  
51  8446  13817  7373  2696  1625  33957  743545  4.567  4.307  
52  9620  11289  9237  3610  2544  36300  594576  6.105  6.086  
01  8313  9005  9609  4030  2748  33705  675565  4.989  4.679  
02  8204  13368  10786  4452  2751  39561  841951  4.699  4.353  
03  8546  15753  8880  3488  2304  38971  814045  4.787  4.587  
04  7325  13173  6915  2717  1711  31841  752193  4.233  4.312  
05  6459  12315  6277  2481  1537  29069  771976  3.766  3.869  
06  5438  10196  5014  1878  1120  23646  725912  3.257  3.331  
07  4698  8544  4386  1744  956  20328  707236  2.874  3.030  
08  4166  6830  3842  1364  821  17023  627314  2.714  2.743

 

[gsgs]

Re: season 2012/3 vs. 1999/0

Re: season 2012/3 vs. 1999/0

P+I deaths and total deaths are still surprisingly low

in the long run we might be happy with this new strain

----edit----
up a lot in week 2

USA:http://wonder.cdc.gov/mmwr/mmwr_rep...r_year=2013&mmwr_location=TOTAL&mmwr_table=4A

week   1999/0:           2012/3:
   total  P+I ratio  total  P+I ratio
------------------------------------
40 10997  716  651   10562  623  590
41 10318  675  654   10117  636  629
42 10541  707  671   11899  679  571
43 10928  737  674   09816  638  650  
44 08441  624  739   10336  681  659
45 10014  662  661   11348  724  638
46 11248  718  638   10724  687  641
47 08969  629  701   08773  549  626
48 11705  784  670   12466  812  651    
49 11686  827  708   11627  739  636
50 11907  930  781   11651  783  672
51 09660  733  759   10396  676  650
52 10709  899  839   07484  523  699
01 13604 1263  928   10984  801  729
02 14802 1558 1053   14678 1213  826
03 12731 1405 1104   13973 1373  983
04 13709 1463 1067
05 13884 1482 1067 
06 13149 1302  990 
07 13562 1264  932
08 12065 1042  864
09 13272 1164  877
10 12274 1028  838
11 13189 1129  861
12 12708  998  785
13 12967 1021  787 
14 11938  901  755
15 10925  789  722
16 11348  930  820
17 11901  872  733
18 11638  851  731
19 11002  781  710
20 11280  746  661

3 seasons

40,10876,657,604,10997,716,651,10562,623,590
41,09621,610,634,10318,675,654,10117,636,629
42,10354,652,629,10541,707,671,11899,679,571
43,11254,684,607,10928,737,674,09816,638,650
44,11121,698,627,08441,624,739,10336,681,659
45,09279,573,617,10014,662,661,11348,724,638
46,10521,647,614,11248,718,638,10724,687,641
47,12031,773,642,08969,629,701,08773,549,626
48,09720,631,649,11705,784,670,12466,812,651
49,12731,886,695,11686,827,708,11627,739,636
50,12874,931,723,11907,930,781,11651,783,672
51,11191,870,777,09660,733,759,10396,676,650
52,09245,832,899,10709,899,839,07484,523,699
01,09825,920,936,13604,1263,928,10984,801,729
02,14590,1482,1015,14802,1558,1053,14678,1213,826
03,14419,1485,1029,12731,1405,1104,13973,1373,983
04,13367,1291,965,13709,1463,1067,12883,1213,942
05,13535,1252,925,13884,1482,1067,13852,1246,900
06,13769,1194,867,13149,1302,990,12407,1125,907
07,13831,1198,866,13562,1264,932,12591,1077,855
08,13481,1075,797,12065,1042,864,11325,947,836
09,13807,1063,769,13272,1164,877,12157,940,773
10,13165,947,719,12274,1028,838,12182,926,760
11,13701,1010,737,13189,1129,861,11998,915,763
12,13539,982,725,12708,998,785,11725,878,749
13,12870,944,733,12967,1021,787,11505,855,743
14,11921,878,736,11938,901,755,11822,849,718
15,10998,805,731,10925,789,722,11960,858,717
16,11241,783,696,11348,930,820,11917,796,668
17,11316,786,694,11901,872,733,11490,757,659
18,11830,834,704,11638,851,731,10593,739,698
19,09474,596,629,11002,781,710,10990,700,637
20,09479,579,610,11280,746,661,10974,737,672

2003f,1999f,2012f

file deaa0

 

[gsgs]

Re: season 2012/3 vs. 1999/0 and 2003/4

seasons 1997f-2012f compared
ILI-onset vs. impact

 

[gsgs]

Re: season 2012/3 vs. 1999/0 and 2003/4

comparing deaths in these 3 seasons

(there was probably some P+I overreporting in 1999/0
due to the transition from ICD9 to ICD10)

deag6: update for week 4

-----------------------------------------
5350 more deaths than 2012 in those 122 cities already in the first 3 weeks of 2013
==> ~20000 more deaths than 2012 (which was particularly mild) in 3 weeks

comparing also with 2011 ... that gives an estimate of 67000 more deaths this
season than 2011/12 in USA

(US-population:1999:272690813,2003:294043000,2012:312800000)

---------------------------------------------------------------------------

week 6:
if we assume that the population stayed constant during 1999-2013 and that the
provisional deaths in those 122 cities were always a good and constant 25% sample
of all deaths, and that 2010f was an average death-year,
and that the timing of the wave in 2012f compares with 2003f,1999f (not so true though)
then I calculate for
1999f:~51000 additional deaths
2003f:~58000 additional deaths
2011f:~53000 fewer deaths
2012f:~26000 additional deaths


files deaa0,mmw11 program mmw11b.bas
-----------------------------------------------

week8: looks better for 2012f than expected

2012f: ~15000 (seasonal) deaths more than 2010


week20: ~11000 (seasonal) deaths more than 2010f
(~64000 more than in 2011f, which had particularly few deaths)

 808  379205  258813  86247  20549  7215  6158  27695 ---2012f                  
 808  363266  244864  83531  20548  7550  6592  25128 ---2011f                  
 808  376422  254133  87199  20966  7526  6411  28219 ---2010f                  
                                                                              
1999f: 1556284                                                                  
2003f: 1563904                                                                  
2012f: 1516820                                                                  
2011f: 1453064                                                                  
2010f: 1505688

 

[gsgs]

Re: season 2012/3 vs. 1999/0 and 2003/4

Week
Age 0-4
Age 5-24
Age 25-49
Age 50-64
Age over 64
Total ILI
Total Patients
% Unweighted ILI
% Weighted ILI

40  3106  3478  1765  632  377  9358  775878  1.206  1.163  
41  3317  3669  1778  673  370  9807  794919  1.234  1.188  
42  3324  3832  1765  655  380  9956  792512  1.256  1.283  
43  3453  4035  1773  658  380  10299  789508  1.304  1.291  
44  3634  4658  1957  760  387  11396  784393  1.453  1.428  
45  3954  4351  2076  673  456  11510  798975  1.441  1.397  
46  3923  4363  2170  798  474  11728  802029  1.462  1.458  
47  4125  3342  1813  681  431  10392  633774  1.640  1.559  
48  4238  3955  2060  815  413  11481  783165  1.466  1.342  
49  4024  4050  1941  772  442  11229  737911  1.522  1.486  
50  4579  4099  2083  846  550  12157  729067  1.667  1.637  
51  5017  3535  2070  818  521  11961  646123  1.851  1.830  
52  5243  3187  2320  947  670  12367  586027  2.110  2.100  
01  4514  3394  2342  1028  715  11993  678778  1.767  1.735  
02  4059  3638  2320  919  611  11547  746522  1.547  1.553  
03  4365  4024  2247  800  498  11934  722911  1.651  1.632  
04  4767  4798  2307  827  513  13212  785516  1.682  1.762  
05  5228  5347  2439  921  567  14502  774986  1.871  1.938  
06  5028  5545  2582  894  566  14615  784755  1.862  1.911  
07  5295  6002  2939  1054  668  15958  788060  2.025  2.106  
08  5247  5989  3009  1132  762  16139  764884  2.110  2.243  
09  5220  6236  3138  1153  768  16515  787373  2.097  2.223  
10  4821  6503  2841  1001  632  15798  747515  2.113  2.175  
11  5177  6774  3324  1187  703  17165  747968  2.295  2.387  
12  4422  5677  2822  988  609  14518  753304  1.927  1.968  
13  3807  5287  2487  923  550  13054  745163  1.752  1.856  
14  3583  4634  2342  844  573  11976  709840  1.687  1.702  
15  3254  4055  2116  773  549  10747  715076  1.503  1.539  
16  3002  4016  1991  721  394  10124  730692  1.386  1.381  
17  2638  3803  1831  664  435  9371  724983  1.293  1.296  
18  2509  3665  1730  637  456  8997  660440  1.362  1.397  
19  2528  3471  1562  663  424  8648  655356  1.320  1.347  
20  2465  3088  1546  591  375  8065  635500  1.269  1.233  
21  2542  3011  1460  484  380  7877  614420  1.282  1.232  
22  2477  2600  1277  447  353  7154  548690  1.304  1.269  
23  2337  2359  1288  458  336  6778  579874  1.169  1.118  
24  2228  2025  1150  427  302  6132  562388  1.090  1.095  
25  2250  1955  1113  404  279  6001  568940  1.055  1.108  
26  2165  1846  1058  419  287  5775  533327  1.083  1.100  
27  1909  1703  1010  384  277  5283  501604  1.053  1.124  
28  1908  1739  963  338  221  5169  552575  0.935  1.015  
29  1813  1631  909  315  242  4910  540468  0.908  0.940  
30  1749  1714  972  371  284  5090  554763  0.918  0.960  
31  1722  1689  1040  402  263  5116  532624  0.961  1.000  
32  1645  1697  976  372  281  4971  538452  0.923  0.935  
33  1698  1737  972  354  226  4987  546901  0.912  0.866  
34  2071  2085  1168  416  290  6030  579501  1.041  1.063  
35  1925  2254  1271  429  272  6151  583547  1.054  1.111  
36  1829  2152  1270  464  300  6015  537801  1.118  1.200  
37  2050  2639  1283  439  330  6741  591025  1.141  1.098  
38  2104  2629  1332  419  261  6745  590616  1.142  0.992  
39  1894  2286  1215  429  253  6077  486853  1.248  1.143  
40  2758  3669  1807  693  407  9334  774014  1.206  1.220  
41  2915  4029  1947  728  481  10100  754513  1.339  1.346  
42  3173  4214  1902  752  495  10536  800450  1.316  1.334  
43  3312  4234  1989  761  511  10807  788977  1.370  1.380  
44  3308  4388  2003  779  470  10948  731325  1.497  1.487  
45  3729  5129  2324  917  535  12634  778497  1.623  1.654  
46  3981  5437  2516  885  587  13406  767716  1.746  1.769  
47  4561  5245  2768  1082  669  14325  615747  2.326  2.298  
48  5072  6961  3914  1485  946  18378  817395  2.248  2.153  
49  6502  10776  4628  1788  1064  24758  822025  3.012  2.834  
50  7342  12747  5627  2054  1236  29006  796796  3.640  3.423  
51  8446  13817  7373  2696  1625  33957  743545  4.567  4.307  
52  9620  11289  9237  3610  2544  36300  594576  6.105  6.086  
01  8313  9005  9609  4030  2748  33705  675565  4.989  4.679  
02  8204  13368  10786  4452  2751  39561  841951  4.699  4.353  
03  8546  15753  8880  3488  2304  38971  814045  4.787  4.587  
04  7325  13173  6915  2717  1711  31841  752193  4.233  4.312  
05  6459  12315  6277  2481  1537  29069  771976  3.766  3.869  
06  5438  10196  5014  1878  1120  23646  725912  3.257  3.331  
07  4698  8544  4386  1744  956  20328  707236  2.874  3.030  
08  4166  6830  3842  1364  821  17023  627314  2.714  2.743