Scotland: Swine flu death brings total to 47 (CFR concerning)

[JimO]

Re: Scotland: Swine flu death brings total to 47 (CFR concerning)

Missouri, we have a head count of 47, and a population of only 5 million. This is way higher than Norway with the same population, is it not ? Nobody else seems to think so or even have noticed this !

That's a population-based fatality rate of nearly 10 per million, which is very close to Australia (9.3 deaths per million), Canada (9.6), Chile (9.1), Costa Rica (10), and Uruguay (10); and higher than:

Brazil (8.0)
Bolivia (6.7)
Croatia (2.4 - population 4.5M)
Ecuador (6.0)
El Salavador (3.7 - population 6.9M)
Finland (3.1 - population 5.2M)
France (1.6)
Israel (8.7)
Mauritius (6.4 - population 1.3M)
Mexico (5.4 - although we are all aware that Mexican deaths are likely much higher)
Moldova (2.5 - population 4.3M)
Mongolia (6.1 - population 2.9M)
New Zealand (6.6 - population 4.1M)
Norway (5.4 - population 4.6M)
Oman (8.7 - population 3.2M)
Panama (3.4 - population 3.2M)
Paraguay (7.8 - population 6.7M)
Peru (6.6)
Singapore (4.2 - populaton 4.6M)
Spain (3.3)
Venenzuela (4.4)
Ukraine (8.7)
United States (7.9)

The only countries with populations exceeding 1M that have higher rates are:

Argentina (15)
Kuwait (11 - population 2.5M)

If one considers that, of the nations with deaths rates >7.0, only Canada, Costa Rica, Israel, Kuwait, Ukraine, and the U.S. are still headed into the flu season, I would have to agree with Hogweed that there is real cause for concern over Scotland. This wave seems to be winding down in Canada and most of Costa Rica's deaths occurred over the summer and early fall. It is interesting to note that three of the seven countries with higher death rates and that still have the peak of flu season ahead are in the Middle East (Israel, Kuwait, and Oman). That leaves Canada, Scotland, Ukraine, and the U.S. If the trend in Scotland continues, they could have the highest death rate in the Northern Hemisphere when this fall wave passes.

 

[Missouriwatcher]

Re: Scotland: Swine flu death brings total to 47 (CFR concerning)

"Of the 42 cases, at least 29 (69%) were known to have underlying medical conditions including: diabetes (5), a respiratory condition (10), obesity (6), renal/liver conditions (6), congenital abnormalities (6), immunosuppression (6), pregnancy (1) and a malignant illness (4). In some cases, there were
multiple conditions present. The majority of deaths have occurred in NHS Greater Glasgow & Clyde." http://www.documents.hps.scot.nhs.u...eports/weekly-influenza-sitrep-2009-11-26.pdf

In 2004, Scotland had deaths by neoplasms: 15,336
Chronic liver disease: 1,044
Congenital abnormalities: 134

To dwell too much on H1N1 deaths, can be consuming; as would dwelling on any cause of death. Some reading these posts may be dealing with health conditions in the "higher risk" category. Yet, the reality is we have little control over when we will die of "something". Perhaps the focus should be on what we have some control over--LIVING.

 

[ming]

Re: Scotland: Swine flu death brings total to 47 (CFR concerning)

Oh yes I am busy living ! But this is a flu forum and I do live in Scotland, and our numbers seem high to me but nobody else seems to have noticed this,
so I come in here to ask those in the know, what they think ! I promise I'm not morbid just curious !

 

[Snowy Owl]

Re: Scotland: Swine flu death brings total to 47 (CFR concerning)

Ming, Scotland has succeed like Quebec to get juridiction over Health Care under United Kingdom juridiction.While this is a reality, we do have to be responsable in our sovereignty.My main task via the media here will be to incite people to put their scarf over the nose and the mouth. Coughing in the inner elbow and washing their hands.As for Hand washing a lot of studies says that it do not make a significant difference in influenza transmission. But this month we had the lowest Clostridium difficile infection since it had come under radar in Quebec, not bad eh!.So the main message for people living in our climate is, wash your hands, if you cough stay home or cough in your inner elbow, and when the cold wind pitch your face put your scarf over your mouth and nose.

 

[kiwibird]

Re: Scotland: Swine flu death brings total to 47 (CFR concerning)

I am glad you have raised these questions Ming. IMO it is important to keep an eye on this unfolding situation. There will undoubtedly be studies done by the local NHS people. Any been published yet?

 

[ming]

Re: Scotland: Swine flu death brings total to 47 (CFR concerning)

I havent a clue where to look Kiwi!
With the weather we have here today (white!) a scarf is a good idea and will not look out of place!

 

[kiwibird]

Re: Scotland: Swine flu death brings total to 47 (CFR concerning)

A slightly out of date breakdown. Tayside is still leading in consultations!

Scotland?s H1N1 Pandemic Swine Flu Death Toll Is 45 After 2 More Deaths
Source: Scottish Government Posted on: 26th November 2009

Two patients from the NHS Lanarkshire Board area have died after contracting H1N1.

Both patients, an older person and an adult, had underlying health conditions.

Health Secretary Nicola Sturgeon said:

?My heart goes out to both people?s families and friends. This is very sad and our thoughts are with them.?

The latest figures, from Health Protection Scotland, about the incidence of influenza A (H1N1) in Scotland have also been published today.

The findings are:

* A rate of GP consultations for flu-like illnesses ? not necessarily H1N1 ? across Scotland of 119.9 per 100,000. This is a small increase of 1 per cent from last week?s figure of 119.4
* The number of community samples that tested positive for H1N1 is similar to last week at 44 per cent.
* These rates suggest that an estimated figure of 7,400 people have consulted their GP. However, taking account of the number of people having H1N1 but not consulting their GP, HPS estimate that around 21,100 people have contracted H1N1 in the past week. Both of these figures represent a small decrease of around 1 per cent from last week.
* The estimated uptake rate for one dose of the pandemic vaccine among front line health and social care staff is 37.9 per cent and 18 per cent so far.
* As of November 23, there have been 1104 people with influenza A (H1N1) hospitalised since the start of the outbreak. 137 people have required hospital admission in the last week and, as of yesterday, there were 106 in hospital in Scotland.
* There have been 45 deaths linked to influenza A (H1N1) since the start of the outbreak.
* During the past week, higher than normal pupil absence rates due to influenza-like illness have been reported in an increasing number of schools across Scotland.
* There is limited evidence of antiviral resistance in Scotland.

Speaking about the weekly reported figures, Ms Sturgeon said:

?This week?s figures, for the third consecutive week, show a slow down with only marginal increases across consultation and swab rates. However, this is not a reason to become complacent, we must continue to do everything we can to protect ourselves and others.

?The first uptake figures are now available and I?m pleased to see that many staff are protecting themselves against H1N1, also I trust that all eligible health and social care staff will take up the offer of the vaccine, not only for their own protection but for that of the people they care for.

?We now have over 70 per cent of all the supplies we need to vaccinate the priority groups, and that total is increasing on a weekly basis. We remain firmly on track to have offered the vaccine to everybody in the first phase of the priority groups by Christmas.

?I urge everyone within the priority groups to take up the vaccine when invited to do so as vaccination is our best defence in the fight against H1N1.?

Anyone who is concerned about flu-like symptoms should continue to contact their GP for advice, or NHS 24 on 08454 24 24 24. Further information on the vaccination programme is available via the Scottish Swine Flu Vaccination Helpline on 08000 28 28 16.

Rates of GP consultations for flu-like illness per 100,000 population in Scottish NHS Boards

* Ayrshire and Arran ? 142
* Borders ? 113
* Dumfries and Galloway ? 119
* Fife ? 97
* Forth Valley ? 91
* Grampian ? 99
* Greater Glasgow and Clyde ? 134
* Highland ? 183
* Lanarkshire ? 114
* Lothian ? 92
* Orkney ? 91
* Shetland ? 36
* Tayside ? 152
* Western Isles ? 141
* Scotland ? 120

Population figures per board area, mid-year 2008 estimates (GROS)

* Ayrshire and Arran ? 367,510
* Borders ? 112,430
* Dumfries and Galloway ? 148,580
* Fife ? 361,815
* Forth Valley ? 290,047
* Grampian ? 539,630
* Greater Glasgow and Clyde ? 1,194,675
* Highland ? 309,900
* Lanarkshire ? 561,174
* Lothian ? 817,727
* Orkney ? 19,890
* Shetland ? 21,980
* Tayside ? 396,942
* Western Isles ? 26,200
* Scotland ? 5,168,500
http://thegovmonitor.com/world_news...ath-toll-is-45-after-2-more-deaths-16743.html

 

[Hogweed]

Re: Scotland: Swine flu death brings total to 47 (CFR concerning)

A slightly out of date breakdown. Tayside is still leading in consultations!

Yes Tayside has been at or near the top of the Scottish ILI charts for months now yet right at the bottom of the death rates. No deaths have been recorded in Tayside yet.

 

[Celvin11]

Re: Scotland: Swine flu death brings total to 47 (CFR concerning)

17 deaths in Greater Glasgow and Clyde area (when total standings in Scotland stood at 42) gives this area an exceptionally high death rate -
around three times the rate in rest of Scotland and likely the highest in Europe (together with Ayrshire and Arran, Borders and Fife)

Deaths per million

Borders 26.69 - 3 deaths
Fife 16.58 - 6 deaths
Ayrshire & Arran 16.32 - 6 deaths
Greater Glasgow & Clyde 15.07 - 18 deaths

Rest of Scotland 4.47 - 14 deaths

Average Scotland 9.09 - 47 deaths*

*I distributed the 5 last deaths as follows, based on media reports : Ayrshire & Arran (1), Greater Glasgow & Clyde (1), Lanarkshire (2), Lothian (1)

 

[Bois_de_Durou]

Re: Scotland: Swine flu death brings total to 47 (CFR concerning)

I see that the table above refers to the NHS board of treatment. I wonder if the disproportionate number of deaths for Glasgow health region may result from transfers of critical patients from rural areas in the NW to the large well equipped hospitals in the Glasgow region.

 

[Hogweed]

Re: Scotland: Swine flu death brings total to 47 (CFR concerning)

I see that the table above refers to the NHS board of treatment. I wonder if the disproportionate number of deaths for Glasgow health region may result from transfers of critical patients from rural areas in the NW to the large well equipped hospitals in the Glasgow region.

There will be some transfers but the deaths are usually announced with their home region (eg "a 48 year old man from the XYZ region") and they seem to match although I haven't tried cross-checking all deaths.

And if they need to transfer a patient maybe they'd be better sending them all to Tayside where so far everyone comes out of hospital alive

 

[Celvin11]

Re: Scotland: Swine flu death brings total to 47 (CFR concerning)

Some of the H1N1 deaths in Scotland


14 June 2009 - First death - Jacqui Fleming, 38/39 died giving birth at Carnwadric, south Glasgow (UHPs*)
-- > 15 June 2009 - Jack Fleming, son of Jacqui, dies
29 June 2009 - man, 73, Paisley, Scotland (UHPs) - second Scottish death
15 July 2009 - woman tourist visiting Inverness, Scotland (significant UHPs). It is not said from which country (America?) the tourist came.
21 July 2009 - Girl, 15, Glasgow, Scotland (UHPs) - fourth scottish victim
8 August 2009 - man, 26, Glasgow (fifth scottish death). Significant UHPs
24 August 2009 - woman, 59, Islay, Argyll, Scotland (UHPs) - sixth scottish death
28 August 2009 - man, 52, Edinburgh; "significant UHPs" - seventh in Scotland
11 September 2009 - Man, 53, Fife, Scotland - eighth Scottish death
17 September 2009 - Woman dies in Lothians, Scotland - ninth Scottish victim ("significant UHPs")
1 October 2009 - Woman, 62, Forth Valley, Scotland ("significant UHPs) - tenth Scottish victim
11 October 2009 - A 42-year-old man from Glasgow (UHPs)
11 October 2009 - A 75-year-old man from Grampian region of Scotland. UHPs.
13 October 2009 - A 48-year-old man from Glasgow
13 October 2009 - A Fife woman aged 81
14 October 2009 - Pregnant Denise Murray of Hawick, Roxburghshire, 17, and her baby dies, from Borders, Scotland,
21 October 2009 - 59-year-old woman from Fife
21 October 2009 - 58-year-old woman from Borders region of Scotland ("significant UHPs")
22 October 2009 - Sixteen-year-old boy from Glasgow
22 October 2009 - 54-year-old woman from Glasgow
22 October 2009 - 77-year-old man from Glasgow
22 October 2009 - 47-year-old woman from Fife
23 October 2009 - An 81-year-old woman at Paisley's Royal Alexandra Hospital, Scotland ("significant UHPs")
23 October 2009 - A 50-year-old woman at Glasgow's Western Infirmary ("significant UHPs")
31 October 2009 - 3 deaths in Scotland (Glasgow and Ayshire)
2 November 2009 - Elderly man in Fife
3 November 2009 - Two Ayrshire residents
6 November 2009 - Adult dies in Ayrshire and Arran area of Scotland. "gender has not been revealed for reasons of confidentiality", said to have a “significant” underlying health condition.
14 November 2009 - Adult from Greater Glasgow and Clyde area, Scotland (UHPs)
14 November 2009 - Adult from Dumfries and Galloway area, Scotland (UHPs)

* UHPs - Underlying Health Problems