Scotland -HPS- Weekly Pandemic Update (12/11/2009)

[TrueScotsman]

The weekly situation report contains summary epidemiological information on influenza-like illness and Influenza A H1N1v activity in Scotland.

There is evidence that Influenza A H1N1v continues to circulate in Scotland with the overall levels of illness which may be due to the virus slightly increased in week 45 compared to the previous week (Week 44).

The daily average GP consultation rate for Scotland was 114.2 per 100,000 (95% CI 111.3, 117.1), this represents an 8% increase from the previous week (105.6 per 100,000)

Between weeks 44 and 45, the proportion of cold/flu calls to NHS 24 across most of Scotland increased from 3.9% to 4.9% and remains above the levels expected for this time of year

During the past week, higher than normal pupil absence rates due to ILI have beenreported in around two dozen schools across Scotland.

The number of deaths from all causes reported during the week is consistent with the levels expected from historical figures and will continue to be monitored closely (Figure 7). The total number of deaths among confirmed Influenza A H1N1v cases in Scotland, at 11 November, is 33.

The H1N1v swab positivity rate among those consulting their GPs through the sentinel scheme (44.6%) is higher than that recorded during the past four weeks.

The estimated number of new Influenza A H1N1v cases this week who consulted their GP was 7500 (95% CI 6750, 8300). Since not all people consult their GP, the estimate of the total number of people in Scotland who have contracted H1N1v over the last week is 21500 (95% CI 16800, 31000) – a 23% increase compared to the previous week (17500)

There is currently some evidence of antiviral resistance in Scotland

Source for Tables and Graphs (PDF) :

http://www.documents.hps.scot.nhs.u...eports/weekly-influenza-sitrep-2009-11-12.pdf

 

[Hogweed]

Re: Scotland -HPS- Weekly Pandemic Update (12/11/2009)

There is currently some evidence of antiviral resistance in Scotland

Source for Tables and Graphs (PDF) :

http://www.documents.hps.scot.nhs.u...eports/weekly-influenza-sitrep-2009-11-12.pdf

More on this from the report

4 Virological surveillance
4 Virological surveillance: genetic changes and antiviral resistance (UK)

Antiviral susceptibility (as at 11/11/2009): Testing for antiviral susceptibility is carried out at the
Respiratory Virus Unit (RVU), Centre for Infections, Colindale, London. A total of 2834 H1N1v
viruses have been analysed for the marker commonly associated with resistance to oseltamivir
in seasonal infuenza (H275Y); six viruses were found to carry this mutation. Of these 2834
viruses, 299 have been fully tested for susceptibility; three of the six viruses carrying the H275Y
mutation have been confrmed to be phenotypically resistant to oseltamivir whilst retaining
sensitivity to zanamivir.
A total of 394 Scottish samples have been analysed for genotype and of these 15 were
fully phenotyped. All are sensitive to both oseltamivir and zanamivir. A further two viruses
(included in the UK total of six) have been found to carry the H275Y mutation; full phenotypic

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Comment: 100 viruses have been tested since last week's Scottish report. 2 of those appear to be Tamiflu resistant (2% of total). No information given if these two samples were from related cases (indicating transmission).