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Scientists still at a loss to explain spread of avian flu

Pathfinder

Editor, Senior Moderator
Scientists still at a loss to explain spread of avian flu

Business Lorna Benson ? Apr 20, 2015
...

"It's been really troubling to understand how in the world this can possibly be happening," said Carol Cardona, a professor of avian medicine at the University of Minnesota.

A popular theory among many scientists suggests that wild waterfowl are depositing the virus across the landscape in their feces as they migrate north.

That's likely, Cardona said, as the virus has been detected in numerous wild ducks and geese, birds that can be infected with flu and not appear sick.

But Cardona said it's hard to fathom that waterfowl alone could explain such an unprecedented flu outbreak. She suspects another bird species is helping to spread the virus.

"This is so unusual that we can't help but think something different must be going on," she said.
...
Another theory suggests the viruses may have changed in a way that makes it easier for wild birds to catch and carry the poultry flu strains, avian flu researcher Ron Fouchier said.

"It's possible upon genetic mixing with wild bird viruses, these viruses have become more capable of spreading through wild birds," said Fouchier, a professor of molecular virology at Erasmus University Medical Center in Rotterdam in the Netherlands. "But this is something that's still under investigation."
...
Biosecurity mistakes are thought to be a likely method of disease introduction at many of the turkey farms. State and federal investigators also are looking at the possibility that strong spring winds could have made the flu problem worse ? at least in some locations.

Avian flu isn't typically spread across great distances by wind, but some researchers say it's possible the virus could have been blown into turkey buildings, if it was attached to field debris or feathers.
...

http://www.mprnews.org/story/2015/04/20/avian-flu
 
[h=2]U.S. bird experts mystified by Midwest avian flu spread[/h]
  • Thomson Reuters
Mar 13, 2015 @ 5:00 PM By Tom Polansek
CHICAGO (Reuters)
... Experts who doubt that wild birds are spreading the virus note that the disease has moved from Minnesota in the north, south to Arkansas and Missouri, the opposite direction birds migrate through the area in the spring.
"When you're talking about where I would put my money, I would say that north to south movement in the beginning of March totally does not make sense," said Hon Ip, a microbiologist for the National Wildlife Health Center.
...
But wildlife experts question whether wild birds are moving the virus along the flyway.
"It is extraordinarily unlikely that avian influenza in the turkey flock in Minnesota has anything to do with wild birds," said Lou Cornicelli, wildlife research manager for the Minnesota Division of Fish and Wildlife . He noted that few migratory ducks have started arriving in Minnesota.
"I would think the investigation is going to look more toward the biosecurity issue with food or transport," Cornicelli added. "The fact that there are no ducks here would indicate that it's not ducks in Minnesota."
...
Arkansas officials doubt the role of migratory birds in their state's outbreak, too, partly because the area with the infected farm does not attract many wild birds and waterfowl, said Karen Rowe, bird conservation program leader for the Arkansas Game & Fish Commission.....
 
they might see it in the sequences, when it spreads from farm to farm :
if they have 2 sequences from one outbreak, one with and one without a mutation
and then that mutation occurs on another farm later.
We had that with LP--->HP mutations at the HA-cleavage site

AFAIK this has never been demonstrated with H5N8,H5N2 in Korea,Europe,Taiwan,Japan
 
CNBC explains: Avian influenza, or bird flu

Robert Ferris
10 Mins Ago
CNBC.com
...
Keith Poulsen, a veterinary scientist at the University of Wisconsin...

The outbreaks are following an atypical path?random and unpredictable, Poulsen said. Outbreaks often spread in concentric circles, but these are jumping great distances, leaving farms in between untouched.

One explanation is that the feathers of diseased, migrating wild birds are falling into ventilation systems or somehow getting into facilities. Even the virus' rapid arrival in North America suggests it may have been carried by wild birds.

"What is interesting about this strain is that it took years for H5N1 to migrate from Asia to North America, and this particular strain has only taken about six months, so it is moving quite a bit faster."


The types of farms hardest hit by outbreaks are also puzzling?most of them are high "biosecurity" facilities, where birds are kept in enclosed, strictly monitored environments. Workers at some of these farms are even required to shower before and after their shifts.

Farmers were relying on that high degree of biosecurity to protect their flocks when they knew the disease was migrating toward them from the West Coast in January, Poulsen said.

"But it is obviously not working," he said. "What is frustrating is that these companies are spending a lot of money to maintain this biosecurity, and they are still paying in terms of animal mortality and lost product."
...
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102606208
 
"What is interesting about this strain is that it took years for H5N1 to migrate from Asia to North America, and this particular strain has only taken about six months, so it is moving quite a bit faster."

I think this is a potentially confusing statement. The single occurrence of an H5N1 virus in January, (assumed but not proven to pathogenic to poultry?), was in a healthy teal in Whatcom County, USA. It is not a genetic close match to the pathogenic strain troubling poultry Asia. It has 4 segments that are North American - and this is the second occurrence of this virus since 2004:

http://www.oie.int/wahis_2/public/w...=MapFullEventReport&reportid=17014&newlang=en
[TABLE="class: TableFoyers"]
[TR]
[TD="class: filtrer_th, width: 10%"]Reason for notification[/TD]
[TD="width: 30%"]Reoccurrence of a listed disease[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: filtrer_th, width: 10%"]Date of previous occurrence[/TD]
[TD="width: 30%"]2004[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

So that H5N1 has likely been circulating for 11 years here in North America and we have had no outbreaks in poultry.

And as far as this theory:

One explanation is that the feathers of diseased, migrating wild birds are falling into ventilation systems or somehow getting into facilities.

There is a barrier between outside air and indoor air in ventilation systems known as a 'filter.' Even the most crude air filters will trap feathers.

Now this statement:

Even the virus' rapid arrival in North America suggests it may have been carried by wild birds.

The only scientifically documented arrival of the actual strain of pathogenic Asian H5N1 virus in North America was carried by an infected human.

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4012823/
Pabbaraju K, Tellier R, Wong S, et al. Full-Genome Analysis of Avian Influenza A(H5N1) Virus from a Human, North America, 2013. Emerging Infectious Diseases. 2014;20(5):887-891. doi:10.3201/eid2005.140164.
[h=2]Abstract[/h] Full-genome analysis was conducted on the first isolate of a highly pathogenic avian influenza A(H5N1) virus from a human in North America. The virus has a hemagglutinin gene of clade 2.3.2.1c and is a reassortant with an H9N2 subtype lineage polymerase basic 2 gene. No mutations conferring resistance to adamantanes or neuraminidase inhibitors were found.

http://www.ctvnews.ca/health/health...ve-caught-it-in-illegal-bird-market-1.1680939
Canadian who died from H5N1 flu may have caught it in illegal bird market

This happened in western Canada and this is where we got the first reports of the H5N2 strain. In January 2015, another couple of travelers returned from China to western Canada infected with another strain of bird flu:
http://www.phac-aspc.gc.ca/phn-asp/2013/h7n9-0403-eng.php

There is no evidence that H5N2 came here on a plane, but it is relevant and not stale news that it did happen in the recent past with other strains of bird flu.
 
Is the wind to blame? Bird flu's spread remains mystery

Posted: Wednesday, April 22, 2015 11:30 am | Updated: 12:09 pm, Wed Apr 22, 2015.
By Andrew Broman editor@independentreview.net
...
Virus hitchhiking on winds?

According to Fenrich, farmers and industry officials are frustrated particularly because the virus has infected flocks inside barns with stringent biosecurity measures. A leading theory among industry officials is that high wind speeds are helping to spread the virus, Fenrich said last week, essentially blowing contaminated particles into barns. ?That?s what they?re all saying,? Fenrich said of his conversation with farmers and poultry executives.
..
Contacted on Tuesday, Langmo said he agreed high winds appear to be the primary culprit in spreading the disease. No scientific evidence confirms his suspicions, Langmo noted, but the randomness of virus? spread ? hitting some barns and farms while skipping others ? points toward wind as the problem. ?It?s just not reasonable that all these farms are having biosecurity breaches,? Langmo said.

Asked what steps could be taken to prevent wind from blowing into barns, Langmo said, ?If I knew, I would be really rich.? A possible pathway for wind to enter a barn is through its ventilation system, which is needed to maintain a healthy environment for the turkeys. ?If you turn the ventilation off, they?re all dead,? Langmo noted.
...
A researcher at the University of Minnesota said H5N2 is unlike any previous avian flue strains introduced to North America. Describing the virus as ?completely, completely weird,? Professor Carol Cardona said she?s not sure how the strain is spreading or what biosecurity measures can thwart it. ?The public wants us to know more than we know,? she said. ?All we can say is we don?t know. This is unprecedented.?

Researchers do know the virus is highly pathogenic. One milligram of infected feces contains the equivalent of 10 infectious doses, Cardona noted. ?Does it get walked in? Does it get blown in? Does it get picked up by a small bird that goes through a hole in a screen?? she said, noting that multiple factors may be to blame for the virus? spread.

...Because so little is known about the virus, concerns and debates within the poultry industry are changing daily, Fenrich said. One poultry executive summed up the situation in telling Fenrich that the company?s employees ?were in crisis mode last week and catastrophe mode this week.?
...
http://www.crowrivermedia.com/indep...cle_28853d87-2755-5c4c-a251-24b23bf89123.html
 
I am about a mile down wind from the first affected CAFO in Wisconsin. My outdoor flock has turkeys and mostly chickens. (Two turkeys, 12 outdoor chickens and I have 12 small chicks indoors right now due to the cold.) Neither are ill, yet. If any one should have it, we should. So far, we don't. We have implemented biosecurity in terms of spraying our driveway and tires, using specific shoes, spraying shoes and boots, spraying car ties, using bleach shoe baths at the entries of coops and keeping birds confined to runs and kept away from wild birds as best as possible) We will see what happens. Wild turkeys have not been found dead. No die offs of wild birds anywhere around here. The first affected CAFO is no where near an area where migrating waterfowl would be. Very few small flocks are affected nationally, and ironically THOSE are the ones that should have it if wild birds are carrying it. This defies all reason. If it is WIND, my flock should be down. I can see that CAFO and it is a straight shot from it (where 200,000 are being 'composted in the barn'.) That is a huge viral load that should be hitting me on the prevailing winds. We are still fine. What is the incubation period for this?
 
I am about a mile down wind from the first affected CAFO in Wisconsin. My outdoor flock has turkeys and mostly chickens. (Two turkeys, 12 outdoor chickens and I have 12 small chicks indoors right now due to the cold.) Neither are ill, yet. If any one should have it, we should. So far, we don't. We have implemented biosecurity in terms of spraying our driveway and tires, using specific shoes, spraying shoes and boots, spraying car ties, using bleach shoe baths at the entries of coops and keeping birds confined to runs and kept away from wild birds as best as possible) We will see what happens. Wild turkeys have not been found dead. No die offs of wild birds anywhere around here. The first affected CAFO is no where near an area where migrating waterfowl would be. Very few small flocks are affected nationally, and ironically THOSE are the ones that should have it if wild birds are carrying it. This defies all reason. If it is WIND, my flock should be down. I can see that CAFO and it is a straight shot from it (where 200,000 are being 'composted in the barn'.) That is a huge viral load that should be hitting me on the prevailing winds. We are still fine. What is the incubation period for this?

Thanks for the eyewitness report, AnnaLisa. Obviously the CAFO community is missing something and they are not communicating with wildlife experts:

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-pers...accine-wild-birds-nixed-minnesota-h5n2-source "...wild birds nixed as Minnesota H5N2 source"

And another claim ventilation could the problem:

? A possible pathway for wind to enter a barn is through its ventilation system, which is needed to maintain a healthy environment for the turkeys. ?If you turn the ventilation off, they?re all dead,? Langmo noted.

Again, have they heard of putting filters into HVAC systems? To be fair, maybe conditions are so horrible that the filters would clog within a short time.

?The public wants us to know more than we know,? she said. ?All we can say is we don?t know. This is unprecedented.?

That is a start. Speculation about wild birds as the sole cause of the outbreak is leading them dangerously close to resurrection of the miasma theory that pre-dated the germ theory.
http://www.sciencemuseum.org.uk/broughttolife/techniques/miasmatheory.aspx

As the article concludes, one good thing about the miasma theory is that it got people to clean up the environment. Perhaps this latest rendition will do that in terms of better air quality in the barns. If that is not possible, I fear they will go on a tear killing wild birds, or private parties will do this. Many news sources are already presenting the wild bird blaming as proven science. That is reprehensible.
 
Bird flu virus raises questions scientists working to answer

By DAVID PITT 2 hrs ago
...
Scientists speculate that perhaps rodents or small birds, seeking food, tracked the virus into barns. Maybe it's the work of flies, as the bird flu virus has been found on the insects in a Pennsylvania outbreak in 1983 and in Japan in 2004. The USDA's chief veterinarian even floated the idea last week wind may be blowing dust and feathers carrying the virus from the barnyard into buildings through air vents.

"To me, the main concern is the disease is moving even with heightened biosecurity," said Richard French, a professor of animal health at Becker College in Worcester, Massachusetts. "Ideally we've got to try and figure out the way it's most likely moving and try to put controls in place to stop that."
...
As new operations are infected almost daily, USDA epidemiologists also are trying to determine whether the virus came from a wild bird or could have spread from poultry in another barn or a nearby farm.
...
Another puzzling question has been why there hasn't been a surge in infections of backyard flocks...

Cases might not be reported, French said, noting that commercial operations have a financial incentive to immediately report illnesses because the government pays them for each live bird that must be destroyed. Plus, French said, outdoor chickens could have been exposed over time to low pathogenic versions of bird flu and have developed stronger immunity.

One belief held by researchers will soon be tested: whether the virus will die as temperatures warm up and ultraviolet light increases. With temperatures this week in the 70s in many of the affected states and even warmer weather expected soon, infections should decline if that assumption is true.

But David Swayne, director of the Southeast Poultry Research Laboratory in Athens, Georgia, acknowledged it's hard to predict what will happen.

"It's pretty complex. It involves the climate, the temperature itself, the amount of humidity there," he said.
...
"We're cautiously optimistic that we will not see any human cases, but there certainly is a possibility that we may," Fry said.

http://www.wiscnews.com/news/state-and-regional/article_74a23cbe-dc04-5ebd-9d34-636dd04c929e.html
 
insects don't fly in winter (<~15C) but we had the big outbreak in Jan/Feb in Korea
I'd speculated that the smell from the big farms (vs. backyard) attracts wild birds
but smelling in birds is probably not so good
 
insects don't fly in winter (<~15C) but we had the big outbreak in Jan/Feb in Korea
I'd speculated that the smell from the big farms (vs. backyard) attracts wild birds
but smelling in birds is probably not so good


"Millions of dead chickens and turkeys lie in stinking, fly-swarmed piles near dozens of Iowa farms, casualties of a bird flu virus that's swept through the state's large poultry operations in the last month.
...
"People in low-lying areas near those facilities have contacted me complaining about a very large number of flies and, until the wind comes up and goes the right direction, a lingering odor," said Sen. David Johnson, whose northwest Iowa district includes Sunrise Farms ? where 3.8 million chickens in 20 barns are dead or dying."
...
http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/decomposing-turkeys-chickens-lead-odors-flies-30877489
 
Bird flu in Minnesota's poultry farms: Why you should care

Business MPR News Staff ? May 7, 2015

...
We still don't know a whole lot about it

The virus hasn't appeared in any of Minnesota's 47 million broiler chickens, which are raised to be eaten, not to lay eggs ? or in any broilers in the Midwest, for that matter.

So far, it has been concentrated in egg-layer chicken operations in Minnesota and Iowa and turkeys across the Upper Midwest. Minnesota has only 11 million layer chickens; Iowa has 60 million.

This leaves a few questions, which researchers and scientists still haven't been able to answer:

? Why is the virus appearing in those layer chicken and turkey operations and not in broilers?

? Minnesota has tested 704 backyard flocks near the farms hit by the bird flu. Only one backyard flock, in Pipestone County, has been affected so far. Why?

? If it enters other flyways that have so far been unaffected, what will happen? North Carolina, another major poultry-producing state, is located within the Atlantic Flyway, which so far has been untouched by this strain of flu virus.

"We don't know what will happen there, should this virus make it into the Atlantic Flyway," Cardona said. "It apparently isn't there yet, but we could see equally devastating results."

Its spread might be connected to the weather

Some scientists theorize that consistent warm weather will help tamp down the spread of the outbreak. With warmer temperatures moving into the region as spring becomes summer, announcements of new outbreaks have slowed from the near-daily onslaught of new cases in March and April.

But the theory seems to be undermined by the fact that the weather has already warmed considerably, while more than a dozen new flu cases have appeared in the Midwest the first week of May alone.

"Certainly the weather plays a big role, but let's remember that this is a new virus, both for the state of Minnesota and for the country this past year," said Beth Thompson, assistant director of the Minnesota Board of Animal Health.
...
Full text:
http://www.mprnews.org/story/2015/05/07/bcst-avian-flu-update
 
If the virus has indeed mutated to allow for wind-driven spread it does explain what we are seeing. Millions of virus are shed from an infected poultry shed but only a few actually arrive at the next shed. It only takes one sick bird to infect an entire barn. Therefore the smaller the target i.e. the fewer the birds, the less the chances of infecting the flock. Conversely, the larger the flock the greater the odds the virus survives to infect the next flock. This also explains the phenomena of airborn infection along major transportation routes. Vehicles may be coated with live virus at an infected shed only to be blown off as the vehicle travels the highways. The barns close to transportation routes appear to have higher rates of infections as do larger flocks as opposed to smaller backyard operations. So far no broiler houses have been infected. Perhaps that is due to a completely different set of vehicles visiting broiler houses. For instance, broilers don't eat the same food that turkeys or laying hens eat. If feed truck drivers follow specific routes and do not use the same trucks to supply different types of flocks it could explain why broilers have yet to be infected. Would be interesting to see if that is the case.
 
DATCP in Wisconsin has not yet announced the 4th infection in Jefferson County however, there is a lot of action, vehicles and people in PPE at the CAFO half a mile down the road from me. I won't say it is a 4th infection in our county, however, the activity around the CAFO resembles what happened at the other CAFOs that were infected. I am surrounded by CAFOs. As of yet, we do not have it, nor do the other 80+ barnyard and backyard flocks. I wish DATCP would come back and do serology on my birds to see if they have antibodies. They did PCRs twice and those were negative both times. Given we have a decent sized human population stuck in the middle of 4 CAFOs, it would be interesting to get serologies on us too.
 
Signs of airborne H5N2 found; Iowa reports more outbreaks

Robert Roos | News Editor | CIDRAP News
| May 08, 2015

Evidence of the H5N2 avian influenza virus has been found in air samples collected in and near infected Minnesota poultry barns, a researcher said today, supporting the suspicion that the virus may go airborne for short distances...
...
Air sampling findings

Montse Torremorell, DVM, PhD, of the University of Minnesota said she and three colleagues did a pilot air sampling study at three Minnesota farms with infected poultry.

"Our results indicated that influenza genetic material can be detected in air samples collected inside and immediately outside of infected poultry facilities. We still don't know whether virus was viable or not, and those analyses are in progress," said Torremorell, who holds the Allen D. Leman Chair in swine health and productivity.

"So far we have shown that HPAI [highly pathogenic avian influenza] can be aerosolized from infected facilities," she added. "However, the implications of these findings in terms of understanding the transmission of HPAI between flocks needs further investigation." The study focused on a total of four poultry barns on the three farms.
...
The possibility of airborne transmission of H5N2 has been increasingly discussed as the situation has evolved over the past 2 months. In the early going, affected farms were widely scattered, and in most cases only one barn on each farm was infected. The general assumption was that particles of infected feces from wild waterfowl were being carried into barns by workers or equipment.

But more recently, multiple neighboring farms and multiple barns per farm have been hit, suggesting that the virus may be spreading from farm to farm and barn to barn, possibly via airborne dust or feathers. The results noted by Torremorell today mark the first reported effort to test the hypothesis in the current H5N2 crisis.
...
http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-pers...rborne-h5n2-found-iowa-reports-more-outbreaks
 
USDA Studying Iowa Rodents for Avian Flu

By SARAH BODEN ? 1 HOUR AGO
...
A team of wildlife biologists from the United States Department of Agriculture will be trapping small mammals and birds in Iowa and testing them for avian influenza over the next couple of weeks. USDA epidemiologists will also be interviewing workers at poultry operations about bio security practices.
...
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says there are no confirmed cases of avian flu in mammals, and the USDA still believes migratory birds are responsible for carrying the virus to the Midwest. But the in between steps of how avian flu travels from wild birds into poultry barns is a mystery.
...
McCluskey says a mouse might enter a poultry barn with contaminated material in its fur or on its paws. Once a single bird tests positive for avian flu the entire flock is eradicated so as to prevent the spread of the disease.

The USDA is also investigating other theories about how the virus continues to inflect flocks, despite heightened bio security measures. Some theories include examining poultry feed, different bio security practices, the movement of vehicles from facility to facility, the distance of a poultry barn from water, and a barn's distance from crop fields.
...
http://iowapublicradio.org/post/usda-studying-iowa-rodents-avian-flu
 
Where is Avian Flu Hiding?

Three strains of the virus are decimating poultry farms across the country, but how they&#146;re being transmitted remains unclear

By Dina Fine Maron | May 18, 2015
...
How is it getting around?

The H5 flu strains may not be spreading because of conditions on the farms themselves. Instead, wild ducks and geese appear to be harboring the virus. The birds have been natural reservoirs for other H5 viruses without getting sick, making them likely couriers of the current strains gripping the nation. Ducks and geese are also ubiquitous in the afflicted states. &#147;Minnesota is the land of 10,000 lakes, and we do have a lot of water fowl that are either residents here or on their migratory path north this time of year and stop for awhile here or fly over,&#148; says Beth Thompson, assistant director of the Minnesota Board of Animal Health. The state tells people to stay away from wild waterfowl but &#147;it&#146;s kind of hard to do if you have a natural pond or stream around you.&#148;

Yet evidence that wild birds are carrying the viruses remains mixed. The Minnesota Department of Natural Resources has collected more than 3,000 fecal samples from wild ducks and geese for H5N2 testing. They also analyzed tissue samples from 75 birds killed by hunters and examined dead wild birds around the state. No waterfowl have yet tested positive for H5N2, says Lou Cornicelli, wildlife research manager for the department. Oddly enough, his team did identify one Cooper&#146;s hawk infected with H5N2. The hawks typically eat small birds &#151;not ducks or geese &#151;and they don&#146;t scavenge for dead birds. That raises questions about where the infected hawk contracted the virus, says Cornicelli, adding that at the first farm in Minnesota where turkeys tested positive for H5N2 there were no waterfowl on the property.

&#147;If it&#146;s not from the waterfowl where would the virus be coming from? It doesn&#146;t come from the sky,&#148; says Jack Shere, associate deputy administrator for veterinary services at the U.S. Department of Agriculture&#146;s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service. So how to explain the lack of H5N2 in Minnesota&#146;s geese and ducks? &#147;I think the birds are gone,&#148; Shere says. &#147;They migrated and that&#146;s the difficulty of wild bird sampling. The constituents aren&#146;t there anymore but they leave the virus in the water,&#148; and if commercial farms use an infected pond to water their poultry or to clean out the barns, they could be spreading the virus, he says.
...
Whether the H5 strains are coming from waterfowl feces, virus-laden water, people tracking the virus into barns or something else altogether, one thing is clear: The viruses are spreading, and figuring out how will take more than a wild goose chase.

http://www.scientificamerican.com/ar...an-flu-hiding/
 
Vilsack: Bird Flu Could Be 'Laterally Spread' By Humans

By PEGGY LOWE ? 52 MINUTES AGO

As the outbreak of avian flu continues to spread across the Midwest, Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack said Friday that the spread of the virus could be "laterally spread" by humans.
...
Vilsack said it was definitely wildlife that brought the virus to the Midwest via the Mississippi Flyway. But now it appears the ongoing spread of it could be caused by humans, Vilsack told Iowa Public Radio.

"We've had circumstances recently where folks have been using pond water, for example, to feed and to water their birds. Well, that's a problem because the pond water could be contaminated," Vilsack said. "We've had situations where folks are supposed to shower before they go into the facility, but the shower doesn't work, so they go in anyway."
...
http://kcur.org/post/vilsack-bird-flu-could-be-laterally-spread-humans
 
Bird Flu Spreading as Scientists Look Everywhere for Clues

BY MAGGIE FOX
...
Despite intense efforts to control it, it's continued to spread and the best hope now is for some hot weather to give everyone a break, says Dr. Jack Shere, associate deputy administrator at USDA's Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS).

"We are waiting for a good, warm summer day. That's going to help us," Shere told NBC News.

"When we get above 65 it starts to dry the virus out. (At) 85 the virus is practically dead."
...
The migrating wild birds that spread the virus are the dabbling ducks, which get infected as they float on water and nibble on food just under the surface. They don't necessarily get sick but can spread the virus in their droppings ? which are dispersed even further in water.
...
"If you have got migratory birds and they stop at different locations on open water, it is pretty easy to understand," Shere said. "This virus can live in the water for up to 130 days."
...
"Sniffer" tests have found the virus in the soil just yards from uninfected farms, Shere says, so everyone must take care. Tests in Europe have suggested the virus can survive being blown short distances in dust.
...
But people may be the most dangerous and persistent carriers, Jagne said. "People coming in have to be closely scrutinized," she said.
...
And while right now the biggest threat is to agriculture and to experts of chickens, the biggest fear is that the virus will change just enough to make it infectious to people...

http://www.nbcnews.com/health/healt...cientists-looking-everywhere-bird-flu-n363441
 
Bird flu's cause, end still unknown

Experts: Virus not behaving as expected


Orlan Love, The Gazette
MAY 31, 2015 | 2:00 AM

...
Both Osterholm and Hongwei Xin, director of the Iowa State University Egg Industry Center, said they believe wild waterfowl introduced the virus to Midwest domestic poultry.
...
Researchers tested more than 3,000 samples of duck and goose feces, at least half of which was collected near bird flu infected sites, with no samples testing positive for H5N2.

That research proves only that the virus is not widespread in wild birds, according to Osterholm. It does not disprove that wild birds brought it to the Midwest or that wild birds have contributed to its spread, he said.

Osterholm called ?premature? any conclusions about how the disease is spreading.

The virus is not behaving in accordance with such established dogma as that warmer temperatures and better sanitation will contain it, he said.
...
Osterholm said data show that confined poultry with biosecurity measures in place are less vulnerable to disease than poultry raised outdoors.
...
Osterholm said the threat goes beyond individual businesses, which may lose lots of money, and consumers, who will pay more for eggs and poultry. Because poultry are the most efficient converters of energy to protein, it is a world food security issue in which a substantial reduction in poultry production would adversely affect nutrition around the world, he said.
...
Just as no one knows how the disease spreads, no one knows when it will end, Osterholm said.
...
?Once it gets into an area, it has just not gone away,? he said.

http://thegazette.com/subject/news/bird-flus-cause-end-still-unknown-20150531
 
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