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Scientists Fear Bird Flu Virus May Have Mutated

Sally Furniss

Well-known member
May 18, 2006

Bird Flu


World Health Organization officials are increasingly concerned that a thus far unexplained outbreak of the bird flu virus could mean that a long-feared scenario has been borne out -- that the virus may have mutated so that it can be passed from one human to another.

The concern began with reports that seven members of one family in a remote Indonesian village had come down with the disease.

Doctors were immediately troubled by the fact that there had been no outbreaks of the disease among birds in the region. To date, all of the more than 200 people infected with the virus have gotten it from contact with a diseased bird.

Health authorities hoped that their investigation would disclose a common contact among the seven infected people. So far, that contact has not been found.

At this point, health officials say they cannot rule out that the seven infected family members passed the virus to each other.

Scientists from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have joined their WHO colleagues on the scene to continue the probe.

Unless they can find a connection among all seven family members with one or more diseased birds, they say they may be forced to conclude that a mutation has occurred.

Some scientists have said that if the disease can be transmitted easily among humans, the resulting pandemic could be catastrophic, resulting in millions of fatalities worldwide.

At least 115 of the 208 people known to be infected with the bird flu have died in the last three years, mainly in Asia.
http://www.consumeraffairs.com/news04/2006/05/bird_flu_mutate.html
 
WHO says NO mutation

WHO says NO mutation

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[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]<META content="Relief is bound to be felt in many quarters by the World Health Organization's statement that the cluster of bird flu cases confirmed in Indonesia recently are unlikely to be the result of human-to-human infection." name=description><TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=1 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=0% align=right border=0><TBODY><TR><TD></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>WHO says bird flu cluster in Indonesia not due to human-to-human infection

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=article-author>Disease/Infection News</TD></TR><TR><TD class=article-date>Published: Sunday, 21-May-2006 </TD></TR><TR><TD><!-- Printer Friendly / Email to a Friend Links --><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 align=right border=0><TBODY><TR><TD width=15></TD><TD> Printer Friendly</TD><TD> </TD><TD width=18></TD><TD> Email to a Friend
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR><TR><TD><TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD style="BACKGROUND: url(aspvirtualnews/template_images/smalldot.gif)" height=25> </TD></TR><TR><TD>Relief is bound to be felt in many quarters by the World Health Organization's statement that the cluster of bird flu cases confirmed in Indonesia recently are unlikely to be the result of human-to-human infection.

Clusters of human infections are a concern because they could indicate the virus is mutating into a form that is easily transmissible among humans.
The WHO has sent a team to the area and says their scientists believe that the H5N1 bird flu virus has not mutated.
Six members from one family in a village in North Sumatra were infected, and five have died as a result.
A seventh family member, a 37-year-old woman, is suspected to have been the first victim in the cluster.
The five were apparently neighbours in Kubu Sembelang in the Karo district and were all relatives of the woman.
To date the source of the cluster of infections is unknown but the most likely reason is probably exposure to infected birds or their faeces.
It is the largest cluster ever reported from any country regarding bird flu and could be the result of a large family gathering on April 29 where there was a shared environmental exposure.
So far, no infections have been identified outside this family cluster among other family members, close friends, neighbours, other villagers, or health care professionals who had been attending the infected patients.
Scientists say that if the virus had mutated more people would have become infected by now.
The total of confirmed human cases in Indonesia now stands at 40, of which 31 have died.
The H5N1 virus has been detected among poultry in almost all of the country's 33 provinces.
A senior Indonesian health official has promised complete transparency should human-to-human transmission of bird flu occur and says efforts to raise awareness among the public will include a robust campaign on the dangers of bird flu.

http://www.news-medical.net/?id=18051
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Re: Scientists Fear Bird Flu Virus May Have Mutated

You can have human-to-human transmission without everyone they came into contact with getting infected.

Phase 3 does not mention anything about clusters.
Phase 4 is clusters with limited human-to-human transmission.

What they are saying is that it is not Phase 6.

Duh!

It is Phase 4 at the very least and they are just playing with the semantics.
 
Re: Scientists Fear Bird Flu Virus May Have Mutated

Yes, I agree. I am sure that this situation is H2H transmission. I hope that they are right and it has not mutated. However, I doubt if they really know yet if it has or not.
 
Re: Scientists Fear Bird Flu Virus May Have Mutated

I believe both sides are correct. I suspect it has mutated slightly making it easier to transmit between humans but, not as easy as it probably will get with further changes. Both sides of this argument are the extreme opposites, where the truth no doubt lies somewhere in the middle.
 
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