tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
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Will novel virus go pandemic or be contained?
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Science 07 Feb 2020:
Vol. 367, Issue 6478, pp. 610-611
DOI: 10.1126/science.367.6478.610
[h=2]Scenario 1: containment[/h]
The most optimistic scenario is one in which 2019-nCoV remains mostly confined to China, where 99% of the confirmed cases have occurred so far. (By 4 February, two dozen other countries had together reported 195 cases.) “There has obviously been a huge amount of spread within China, but [elsewhere], there's no evidence of any kind of substantial human-to-human transmission,” says Robin Thompson, a mathematical epidemiologist at the University of Oxford. “The risk probably isn't as high as some models have been projecting.”
[h=2]Scenario 2: pandemic[/h]
If the virus does spread to all corners of the world in a pandemic, several questions will loom large: What percentage of the population will become infected, and of those, how many will get very sick or die? More severe cases place heavier demands on health care systems—hospitals in Wuhan are already overwhelmed—and result in greater fears and disruption of daily life. A deadly pandemic might force the world to make stark choices about fair access to medicines or vaccines, if they become available. It might also lead to widespread restrictions on domestic travel akin to those already in force in China, Aavitsland says. If, on the other hand, 2019-nCoV resembles the common cold or a mild flu, the spread of the virus would be less alarming. Existing travel bans likely would be lifted.
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/367/6478/610
Will novel virus go pandemic or be contained?
- Kai Kupferschmidt,
- Jon Cohen
See all authors and affiliations
Science 07 Feb 2020:
Vol. 367, Issue 6478, pp. 610-611
DOI: 10.1126/science.367.6478.610
[h=2]Scenario 1: containment[/h]
The most optimistic scenario is one in which 2019-nCoV remains mostly confined to China, where 99% of the confirmed cases have occurred so far. (By 4 February, two dozen other countries had together reported 195 cases.) “There has obviously been a huge amount of spread within China, but [elsewhere], there's no evidence of any kind of substantial human-to-human transmission,” says Robin Thompson, a mathematical epidemiologist at the University of Oxford. “The risk probably isn't as high as some models have been projecting.”
[h=2]Scenario 2: pandemic[/h]
If the virus does spread to all corners of the world in a pandemic, several questions will loom large: What percentage of the population will become infected, and of those, how many will get very sick or die? More severe cases place heavier demands on health care systems—hospitals in Wuhan are already overwhelmed—and result in greater fears and disruption of daily life. A deadly pandemic might force the world to make stark choices about fair access to medicines or vaccines, if they become available. It might also lead to widespread restrictions on domestic travel akin to those already in force in China, Aavitsland says. If, on the other hand, 2019-nCoV resembles the common cold or a mild flu, the spread of the virus would be less alarming. Existing travel bans likely would be lifted.
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/367/6478/610