Science vs politics: did the US overreact to the coronavirus outbreak in China?

[Shiloh]

Source: https://www.scmp.com/news/china/soc...s-did-us-overreact-coronavirus-outbreak-china

Science vs politics: did the US overreact to the coronavirus outbreak in China?
The influenza strain in a 2009 pandemic was first detected in the United States and killed an estimated half a million people but no countries turned away or quarantined Americans
Beijing says Washington’s travel restrictions for China are inappropriate but public health experts say the coronavirus is special cause for concern

Robert Delaney
Published: 12:30am, 18 Feb, 2020
Updated: 12:30am, 18 Feb, 2020

The outbreak of a new coronavirus in China has added a new and intensifying source of tension to an already fractured relationship with the United States.

With threats to public health, transport, and the global economy
looming, it was no surprise that the two countries would clash as the epidemic that apparently started at a seafood and live animal market in the central Chinese city of Wuhan spread to the US, among other countries.

But the mysteries of a coronavirus that jumps species to find a home in humans – also known as a zoonotic disease – has opened a new, acrimonious rip into bilateral ties that were already tearing apart. It has pitted science against politics...

 

[Shiloh]

If I am remembering correctly, Flutrackers picked up articles from Mexico regarding a respiratory illness killing young people in Mexico a week or two before the CDC announced cases in the US. In fact, I recall the Canadian border services to screen for fever for arrivals to the country before the CDC came out with their announcement.

 

[bertrand789]

Merci, je suis fran?ais et j'?cris en fran?ais: les d?marches am?ricaines me fascinent depuis longtemps, mais si je ne regardaisque celles l? ce serait triste . C'est le pays qui a fait naitre la m?thode HACCP . Pour cela il m?rite le respect .

Les ?tats-Unis ont-ils r?agi de mani?re excessive ? l'?pid?mie de coronavirus en Chine ?

Comme je ne connais les r?actions que par le biais de flutrackers, franchement, faire la moindre critique me semble ind?cent.

S'il faut aborder les propos autre, ce me semble un des tr?s rare sujet, ou les tweet ont ?t? mesur?s ... Maintenant , si la m?thode HACCP est bafou?e , l? , cela peut changer .

Elle est ou la fiche de danger ?

On en est ou de la recherche des causes vraies ?

 

[gsgs]

yes, it started in Mexico and China knows it. Just the first detailed descriptions and sequences at that time were from USA.
Then came the stories with patient zero, a boy from -how was it called (with the pigs)-
from March 11?
Later Mexico had discovered the first confirmed case from Feb., Baby in StLouisPetosi
The first outbreak outside Mexico was a full wave in NYC starting in May
all from a group of student-travelors from Cancun returning Easter 2009
They tried travel restrictions but cases popped up in several countries and it became
clear that it was too late. Or wasn't it ? With China-like-measures Mexico
and NYC might have contained it.
However then it went down in Summer and reappeared with great force in Sept.
out of nowhere
---------------------------------------
I do not see why US-travel restrictions did so much economical harm
with China itself doing so many travel restrictions.
I speculate there is something more about this with spies,
broken promises and such.

 

[alert]

By the time the world knew that the undiagnosed illnesses in Mexico in 2009 were H1N1, the US had already picked up dozens of mild cases of the virus through routine influenza surveillance. Mexico quickly announced about 100 deaths due to the virus, but it was clear that there had already been tens of thousands of cases both in Mexico and worldwide, making for a CFR of under 1%. (The CFR would later drop another magnitude or two as more information came out).

We're two months into COVID-19, and I'm still not ruling out a CFR of 3-4% on the high end. Most cases are still ill. The CFR might come down to that of seasonal flu, but then again, it might not. Virologically, this virus looks an awful lot like SARS, which would have a 15% CFR or worse if it caused a pandemic. It's not clear to me why this virus might be milder than SARS.

I think the difference in reactions between 2009 and 2020 is due to the potential severity of the virus.