Giuseppe
Emeritus
Optimizing Influenza Vaccine Distribution (Abstract, edited)
Published Online August 20, 2009
Science
DOI: 10.1126/science.1175570
Submitted on April 29, 2009
Accepted on August 4, 2009
Optimizing Influenza Vaccine Distribution
Jan Medlock 1* and Alison P. Galvani 2
1 Epidemiology and Public Health, Yale University School of Medicine, 60 College Street, New Haven, CT 06520?8034, USA.; Department of Mathematical Sciences, Clemson University, Box 340975 Clemson, SC 29634?0975, USA.
2 Epidemiology and Public Health, Yale University School of Medicine, 60 College Street, New Haven, CT 06520?8034, USA.
* To whom correspondence should be addressed. Jan Medlock , E-mail: medlock@clemson.edu
The criteria to assess public health policies are fundamental to policy optimization. Using a model parametrized with survey-based contact data and mortality data from influenza pandemics, we determined optimal vaccine allocation for five outcome measures: deaths, infections, years of life lost, contingent valuation, and economic costs. We find that optimal vaccination is achieved by prioritization of schoolchildren and adults aged 30 to 39 years. Schoolchildren are most responsible for transmission, and their parents serve as bridges to the rest of the population. Our results indicate that consideration of age-specific transmission dynamics is paramount to the optimal allocation of influenza vaccines. We also found that previous and new CDC recommendations for both the novel swine-origin influenza, and particularly for seasonal influenza, are suboptimal for all outcome measures.
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<cite cite="http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/1175570v1">Optimizing Influenza Vaccine Distribution -- Medlock and Galvani, 10.1126/science.1175570 -- Science</cite>Science
DOI: 10.1126/science.1175570
Submitted on April 29, 2009
Accepted on August 4, 2009
Optimizing Influenza Vaccine Distribution
Jan Medlock 1* and Alison P. Galvani 2
1 Epidemiology and Public Health, Yale University School of Medicine, 60 College Street, New Haven, CT 06520?8034, USA.; Department of Mathematical Sciences, Clemson University, Box 340975 Clemson, SC 29634?0975, USA.
2 Epidemiology and Public Health, Yale University School of Medicine, 60 College Street, New Haven, CT 06520?8034, USA.
* To whom correspondence should be addressed. Jan Medlock , E-mail: medlock@clemson.edu
The criteria to assess public health policies are fundamental to policy optimization. Using a model parametrized with survey-based contact data and mortality data from influenza pandemics, we determined optimal vaccine allocation for five outcome measures: deaths, infections, years of life lost, contingent valuation, and economic costs. We find that optimal vaccination is achieved by prioritization of schoolchildren and adults aged 30 to 39 years. Schoolchildren are most responsible for transmission, and their parents serve as bridges to the rest of the population. Our results indicate that consideration of age-specific transmission dynamics is paramount to the optimal allocation of influenza vaccines. We also found that previous and new CDC recommendations for both the novel swine-origin influenza, and particularly for seasonal influenza, are suboptimal for all outcome measures.
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