tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Science
. 2020 Nov 6;370(6517):691-697.
doi: 10.1126/science.abd7672. Epub 2020 Sep 30.
Epidemiology and transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in two Indian states
Ramanan Laxminarayan[SUP] 1 2 3 [/SUP], Brian Wahl[SUP] 3 4 [/SUP], Shankar Reddy Dudala[SUP] 5 [/SUP], K Gopal[SUP] 6 [/SUP], Chandra Mohan B[SUP] 7 [/SUP], S Neelima[SUP] 8 [/SUP], K S Jawahar Reddy[SUP] 9 [/SUP], J Radhakrishnan[SUP] 10 [/SUP], Joseph A Lewnard[SUP] 11 12 [/SUP]
Affiliations
Abstract
Although most cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) have occurred in low-resource countries, little is known about the epidemiology of the disease in such contexts. Data from the Indian states of Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh provide a detailed view into severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission pathways and mortality in a high-incidence setting. Reported cases and deaths have been concentrated in younger cohorts than would be expected from observations in higher-income countries, even after accounting for demographic differences across settings. Among 575,071 individuals exposed to 84,965 confirmed cases, infection probabilities ranged from 4.7 to 10.7% for low-risk and high-risk contact types, respectively. Same-age contacts were associated with the greatest infection risk. Case fatality ratios spanned 0.05% at ages of 5 to 17 years to 16.6% at ages of 85 years or more. Primary data from low-resource countries are urgently needed to guide control measures.
. 2020 Nov 6;370(6517):691-697.
doi: 10.1126/science.abd7672. Epub 2020 Sep 30.
Epidemiology and transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in two Indian states
Ramanan Laxminarayan[SUP] 1 2 3 [/SUP], Brian Wahl[SUP] 3 4 [/SUP], Shankar Reddy Dudala[SUP] 5 [/SUP], K Gopal[SUP] 6 [/SUP], Chandra Mohan B[SUP] 7 [/SUP], S Neelima[SUP] 8 [/SUP], K S Jawahar Reddy[SUP] 9 [/SUP], J Radhakrishnan[SUP] 10 [/SUP], Joseph A Lewnard[SUP] 11 12 [/SUP]
Affiliations
- PMID: 33154136
- DOI: 10.1126/science.abd7672
Abstract
Although most cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) have occurred in low-resource countries, little is known about the epidemiology of the disease in such contexts. Data from the Indian states of Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh provide a detailed view into severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission pathways and mortality in a high-incidence setting. Reported cases and deaths have been concentrated in younger cohorts than would be expected from observations in higher-income countries, even after accounting for demographic differences across settings. Among 575,071 individuals exposed to 84,965 confirmed cases, infection probabilities ranged from 4.7 to 10.7% for low-risk and high-risk contact types, respectively. Same-age contacts were associated with the greatest infection risk. Case fatality ratios spanned 0.05% at ages of 5 to 17 years to 16.6% at ages of 85 years or more. Primary data from low-resource countries are urgently needed to guide control measures.