tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Science
. 2021 Feb 2;eabe8372.
doi: 10.1126/science.abe8372. Online ahead of print.
Age groups that sustain resurging COVID-19 epidemics in the United States
M?lodie Monod[SUP] #[/SUP][SUP] 1 [/SUP], Alexandra Blenkinsop[SUP] #[/SUP][SUP] 1 [/SUP], Xiaoyue Xi[SUP] #[/SUP][SUP] 1 [/SUP], Daniel Hebert[SUP] #[/SUP][SUP] 2 [/SUP], Sivan Bershan[SUP] #[/SUP][SUP] 3 [/SUP], Simon Tietze[SUP] #[/SUP][SUP] 3 [/SUP], Marc Baguelin[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Valerie C Bradley[SUP] 5 [/SUP], Yu Chen[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Helen Coupland[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Sarah Filippi[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Jonathan Ish-Horowicz[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Martin McManus[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Thomas Mellan[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Axel Gandy[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Michael Hutchinson[SUP] 5 [/SUP], H Juliette T Unwin[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Sabine L van Elsland[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Michaela A C Vollmer[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Sebastian Weber[SUP] 6 [/SUP], Harrison Zhu[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Anne Bezancon[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Neil M Ferguson[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Swapnil Mishra[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Seth Flaxman[SUP] 7 [/SUP], Samir Bhatt[SUP] 8 9 [/SUP], Oliver Ratmann[SUP] #[/SUP][SUP] 7 [/SUP], Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team
Affiliations
Abstract
Following initial declines, in mid 2020 a resurgence in transmission of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) occurred in the US and Europe. As COVID19 disease control efforts are re-intensified, understanding the age demographics driving transmission and how these affect the loosening of interventions is crucial. We analyze aggregated, age-specific mobility trends from more than 10 million individuals in the US and link these mechanistically to age-specific COVID-19 mortality data. We estimate that as of October 2020, individuals aged 20-49 are the only age groups sustaining resurgent SARS-CoV-2 transmission with reproduction numbers well above one, and that at least 65 of 100 COVID-19 infections originate from individuals aged 20-49 in the US. Targeting interventions - including transmission-blocking vaccines - to adults aged 20-49 is an important consideration in halting resurgent epidemics and preventing COVID-19-attributable deaths.
. 2021 Feb 2;eabe8372.
doi: 10.1126/science.abe8372. Online ahead of print.
Age groups that sustain resurging COVID-19 epidemics in the United States
M?lodie Monod[SUP] #[/SUP][SUP] 1 [/SUP], Alexandra Blenkinsop[SUP] #[/SUP][SUP] 1 [/SUP], Xiaoyue Xi[SUP] #[/SUP][SUP] 1 [/SUP], Daniel Hebert[SUP] #[/SUP][SUP] 2 [/SUP], Sivan Bershan[SUP] #[/SUP][SUP] 3 [/SUP], Simon Tietze[SUP] #[/SUP][SUP] 3 [/SUP], Marc Baguelin[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Valerie C Bradley[SUP] 5 [/SUP], Yu Chen[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Helen Coupland[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Sarah Filippi[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Jonathan Ish-Horowicz[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Martin McManus[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Thomas Mellan[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Axel Gandy[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Michael Hutchinson[SUP] 5 [/SUP], H Juliette T Unwin[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Sabine L van Elsland[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Michaela A C Vollmer[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Sebastian Weber[SUP] 6 [/SUP], Harrison Zhu[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Anne Bezancon[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Neil M Ferguson[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Swapnil Mishra[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Seth Flaxman[SUP] 7 [/SUP], Samir Bhatt[SUP] 8 9 [/SUP], Oliver Ratmann[SUP] #[/SUP][SUP] 7 [/SUP], Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team
Affiliations
- PMID: 33531384
- DOI: 10.1126/science.abe8372
Abstract
Following initial declines, in mid 2020 a resurgence in transmission of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) occurred in the US and Europe. As COVID19 disease control efforts are re-intensified, understanding the age demographics driving transmission and how these affect the loosening of interventions is crucial. We analyze aggregated, age-specific mobility trends from more than 10 million individuals in the US and link these mechanistically to age-specific COVID-19 mortality data. We estimate that as of October 2020, individuals aged 20-49 are the only age groups sustaining resurgent SARS-CoV-2 transmission with reproduction numbers well above one, and that at least 65 of 100 COVID-19 infections originate from individuals aged 20-49 in the US. Targeting interventions - including transmission-blocking vaccines - to adults aged 20-49 is an important consideration in halting resurgent epidemics and preventing COVID-19-attributable deaths.