tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Sci Total Environ
. 2020 Oct 16;142801.
doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.142801. Online ahead of print.
Independent association of meteorological characteristics with initial spread of Covid-19 in India
Hemant Kulkarni[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Harshwardhan Khandait[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Uday W Narlawar[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Pragati Rathod[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Manju Mamtani[SUP] 4 [/SUP]
Affiliations
Abstract
Whether weather plays a part in the transmissibility of the novel Coronavirus Disease-19 (COVID-19) is still not established. We tested the hypothesis that meteorological factors (air temperature, relative humidity, air pressure, wind speed and rainfall) are independently associated with transmissibility of COVID-19 quantified using the basic reproduction rate (R[SUB]0[/SUB]). We used publicly available datasets on daily COVID-19 case counts (total n = 108,308), three-hourly meteorological data and community mobility data over a three-month period. Estimated R[SUB]0[/SUB] varied between 1.15 and 1.28. Mean daily air temperature (inversely), wind speed (positively) and countrywide lockdown (inversely) were significantly associated with time dependent R[SUB]0[/SUB], but the contribution of countrywide lockdown to variability in R[SUB]0[/SUB] was over three times stronger as compared to that of temperature and wind speed combined. Thus, abating temperatures and easing lockdown may concur with increased transmissibility of COVID-19 in India.
Keywords: Basic reproduction rate; COVID-19; Temperature; Wind speed.
. 2020 Oct 16;142801.
doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.142801. Online ahead of print.
Independent association of meteorological characteristics with initial spread of Covid-19 in India
Hemant Kulkarni[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Harshwardhan Khandait[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Uday W Narlawar[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Pragati Rathod[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Manju Mamtani[SUP] 4 [/SUP]
Affiliations
- PMID: 33148430
- PMCID: PMC7566664
- DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.142801
Abstract
Whether weather plays a part in the transmissibility of the novel Coronavirus Disease-19 (COVID-19) is still not established. We tested the hypothesis that meteorological factors (air temperature, relative humidity, air pressure, wind speed and rainfall) are independently associated with transmissibility of COVID-19 quantified using the basic reproduction rate (R[SUB]0[/SUB]). We used publicly available datasets on daily COVID-19 case counts (total n = 108,308), three-hourly meteorological data and community mobility data over a three-month period. Estimated R[SUB]0[/SUB] varied between 1.15 and 1.28. Mean daily air temperature (inversely), wind speed (positively) and countrywide lockdown (inversely) were significantly associated with time dependent R[SUB]0[/SUB], but the contribution of countrywide lockdown to variability in R[SUB]0[/SUB] was over three times stronger as compared to that of temperature and wind speed combined. Thus, abating temperatures and easing lockdown may concur with increased transmissibility of COVID-19 in India.
Keywords: Basic reproduction rate; COVID-19; Temperature; Wind speed.