tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Sci Total Environ
. 2020 Jun 18;737:140348.
doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.140348. Online ahead of print.
A Mechanism-Based Parameterisation Scheme to Investigate the Association Between Transmission Rate of COVID-19 and Meteorological Factors on Plains in China
Changqing Lin[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Alexis K H Lau[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Jimmy C H Fung[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Cui Guo[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Jimmy W M Chan[SUP] 1 [/SUP], David W Yeung[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Yumiao Zhang[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Yacong Bo[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Md Shakhaoat Hossain[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Yiqian Zeng[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Xiang Qian Lao[SUP] 5 [/SUP]
Affiliations
Abstract
The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), which first emerged in Hubei province, China, has become a pandemic. However, data regarding the effects of meteorological factors on its transmission are limited and inconsistent. A mechanism-based parameterisation scheme was developed to investigate the association between the scaled transmission rate (STR) of COVID-19 and the meteorological parameters in 20 provinces/municipalities located on the plains in China. We obtained information on the scale of population migrated from Wuhan, the world epicentre of the COVID-19 outbreak, into the study provinces/municipalities using mobile-phone positioning system and big data techniques. The highest STRs were found in densely populated metropolitan areas and in cold provinces located in north-eastern China. Population density had a non-linear relationship with disease spread (linearity index, 0.9). Among various meteorological factors, only temperature was significantly associated with the STR after controlling for the effect of population density. A negative and exponential relationship was identified between the transmission rate and the temperature (correlation coefficient, -0.56; 99% confidence level). The STR increased substantially as the temperature in north-eastern China decreased below 0 ?C (the STR ranged from 3.5 to 12.3 when the temperature was between -9.41 ?C and -13.87 ?C), whilst the STR showed less temperature dependence in the study areas with temperate weather conditions (the STR was 1.21 ? 0.57 when the temperature was above 0 ?C). Therefore, a higher population density was linearly whereas a lower temperature (<0 ?C) was exponentially associated with an increased transmission rate of COVID-19. These findings suggest that the mitigation of COVID-19 spread in densely populated and/or cold regions will be a great challenge.
Keywords: COVID-19; Imported scale; Meteorology; Population density; Temperature.
. 2020 Jun 18;737:140348.
doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.140348. Online ahead of print.
A Mechanism-Based Parameterisation Scheme to Investigate the Association Between Transmission Rate of COVID-19 and Meteorological Factors on Plains in China
Changqing Lin[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Alexis K H Lau[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Jimmy C H Fung[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Cui Guo[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Jimmy W M Chan[SUP] 1 [/SUP], David W Yeung[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Yumiao Zhang[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Yacong Bo[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Md Shakhaoat Hossain[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Yiqian Zeng[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Xiang Qian Lao[SUP] 5 [/SUP]
Affiliations
- PMID: 32569904
- DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.140348
Abstract
The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), which first emerged in Hubei province, China, has become a pandemic. However, data regarding the effects of meteorological factors on its transmission are limited and inconsistent. A mechanism-based parameterisation scheme was developed to investigate the association between the scaled transmission rate (STR) of COVID-19 and the meteorological parameters in 20 provinces/municipalities located on the plains in China. We obtained information on the scale of population migrated from Wuhan, the world epicentre of the COVID-19 outbreak, into the study provinces/municipalities using mobile-phone positioning system and big data techniques. The highest STRs were found in densely populated metropolitan areas and in cold provinces located in north-eastern China. Population density had a non-linear relationship with disease spread (linearity index, 0.9). Among various meteorological factors, only temperature was significantly associated with the STR after controlling for the effect of population density. A negative and exponential relationship was identified between the transmission rate and the temperature (correlation coefficient, -0.56; 99% confidence level). The STR increased substantially as the temperature in north-eastern China decreased below 0 ?C (the STR ranged from 3.5 to 12.3 when the temperature was between -9.41 ?C and -13.87 ?C), whilst the STR showed less temperature dependence in the study areas with temperate weather conditions (the STR was 1.21 ? 0.57 when the temperature was above 0 ?C). Therefore, a higher population density was linearly whereas a lower temperature (<0 ?C) was exponentially associated with an increased transmission rate of COVID-19. These findings suggest that the mitigation of COVID-19 spread in densely populated and/or cold regions will be a great challenge.
Keywords: COVID-19; Imported scale; Meteorology; Population density; Temperature.