tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Sci Rep
. 2020 Nov 26;10(1):20731.
doi: 10.1038/s41598-020-77698-4.
Fatality rate and predictors of mortality in an Italian cohort of hospitalized COVID-19 patients
Mattia Bellan[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Giuseppe Patti[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Eyal Hayden[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Danila Azzolina[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Mario Pirisi[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Antonio Acquaviva[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Gianluca Aimaretti[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Paolo Aluffi Valletti[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Roberto Angilletta[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Roberto Arioli[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Gian Carlo Avanzi[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Gianluca Avino[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Piero Emilio Balbo[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Giulia Baldon[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Francesca Baorda[SUP] 1 4 [/SUP], Emanuela Barbero[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Alessio Baricich[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Michela Barini[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Francesco Barone-Adesi[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Sofia Battistini[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Michela Beltrame[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Matteo Bertoli[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Stephanie Bertolin[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Marinella Bertolotti[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Marta Betti[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Flavio Bobbio[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Paolo Boffano[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Lucio Boglione[SUP] 1 4 [/SUP], Silvio Borr?[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Matteo Brucoli[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Elisa Calzaducca[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Edoardo Cammarata[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Vincenzo Cantaluppi[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Roberto Cantello[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Andrea Capponi[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Alessandro Carriero[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Francesco Giuseppe Casciaro[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Luigi Mario Castello[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Federico Ceruti[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Guido Chichino[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Emilio Chirico[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Carlo Cisari[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Micol Giulia Cittone[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Crizia Colombo[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Cristoforo Comi[SUP] 1 4 [/SUP], Eleonora Croce[SUP] 1 4 [/SUP], Tommaso Daffara[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Pietro Danna[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Francesco Della Corte[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Simona De Vecchi[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Umberto Dianzani[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Davide Di Benedetto[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Elia Esposto[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Fabrizio Faggiano[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Zeno Falaschi[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Daniela Ferrante[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Alice Ferrero[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Ileana Gagliardi[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Gianluca Gaidano, Alessandra Galbiati[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Silvia Gallo[SUP] 1 4 [/SUP], Pietro Luigi Garavelli[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Clara Ada Gardino[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Massimiliano Garzaro[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Maria Luisa Gastaldello[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Francesco Gavelli[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Alessandra Gennari[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Greta Maria Giacomini[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Irene Giacone[SUP] 1 4 [/SUP], Valentina Giai Via[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Francesca Giolitti[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Laura Cristina Gironi[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Carla Gramaglia[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Leonardo Grisafi[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Ilaria Inserra[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Marco Invernizzi[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Marco Krengli[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Emanuela Labella[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Irene Cecilia Landi[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Raffaella Landi[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Ilaria Leone[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Veronica Lio[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Luca Lorenzini[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Antonio Maconi[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Mario Malerba[SUP] 1 4 [/SUP], Giulia Francesca Manfredi[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Maria Martelli[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Letizia Marzari[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Paolo Marzullo[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Marco Mennuni[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Claudia Montabone[SUP] 1 4 [/SUP], Umberto Morosini[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Marco Mussa[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Ilaria Nerici[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Alessandro Nuzzo[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Carlo Olivieri[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Samuel Alberto Padelli[SUP] 1 4 [/SUP], Massimiliano Panella[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Andrea Parisini[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Alessio Pasch?[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Alberto Pau[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Anita Rebecca Pedrinelli[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Ilaria Percivale[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Roberta Re[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Cristina Rigamonti[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Eleonora Rizzi[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Andrea Rognoni[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Annalisa Roveta[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Luigia Salamina[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Matteo Santagostino[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Massimo Saraceno[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Paola Savoia[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Marco Sciarra[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Andrea Schimmenti[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Lorenza Scotti[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Enrico Spinoni[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Carlo Smirne[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Vanessa Tarantino[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Paolo Amedeo Tillio[SUP] 1 4 [/SUP], Rosanna Vaschetto[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Veronica Vassia[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Domenico Zagaria[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Elisa Zavattaro[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Patrizia Zeppegno[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Francesca Zottarelli[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Pier Paolo Sainaghi[SUP] 5 6 [/SUP]
Affiliations
Abstract
Clinical features and natural history of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) differ widely among different countries and during different phases of the pandemia. Here, we aimed to evaluate the case fatality rate (CFR) and to identify predictors of mortality in a cohort of COVID-19 patients admitted to three hospitals of Northern Italy between March 1 and April 28, 2020. All these patients had a confirmed diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 infection by molecular methods. During the study period 504/1697 patients died; thus, overall CFR was 29.7%. We looked for predictors of mortality in a subgroup of 486 patients (239 males, 59%; median age 71 years) for whom sufficient clinical data were available at data cut-off. Among the demographic and clinical variables considered, age, a diagnosis of cancer, obesity and current smoking independently predicted mortality. When laboratory data were added to the model in a further subgroup of patients, age, the diagnosis of cancer, and the baseline PaO[SUB]2[/SUB]/FiO[SUB]2[/SUB] ratio were identified as independent predictors of mortality. In conclusion, the CFR of hospitalized patients in Northern Italy during the ascending phase of the COVID-19 pandemic approached 30%. The identification of mortality predictors might contribute to better stratification of individual patient risk.
. 2020 Nov 26;10(1):20731.
doi: 10.1038/s41598-020-77698-4.
Fatality rate and predictors of mortality in an Italian cohort of hospitalized COVID-19 patients
Mattia Bellan[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Giuseppe Patti[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Eyal Hayden[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Danila Azzolina[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Mario Pirisi[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Antonio Acquaviva[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Gianluca Aimaretti[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Paolo Aluffi Valletti[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Roberto Angilletta[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Roberto Arioli[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Gian Carlo Avanzi[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Gianluca Avino[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Piero Emilio Balbo[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Giulia Baldon[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Francesca Baorda[SUP] 1 4 [/SUP], Emanuela Barbero[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Alessio Baricich[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Michela Barini[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Francesco Barone-Adesi[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Sofia Battistini[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Michela Beltrame[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Matteo Bertoli[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Stephanie Bertolin[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Marinella Bertolotti[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Marta Betti[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Flavio Bobbio[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Paolo Boffano[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Lucio Boglione[SUP] 1 4 [/SUP], Silvio Borr?[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Matteo Brucoli[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Elisa Calzaducca[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Edoardo Cammarata[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Vincenzo Cantaluppi[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Roberto Cantello[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Andrea Capponi[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Alessandro Carriero[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Francesco Giuseppe Casciaro[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Luigi Mario Castello[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Federico Ceruti[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Guido Chichino[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Emilio Chirico[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Carlo Cisari[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Micol Giulia Cittone[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Crizia Colombo[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Cristoforo Comi[SUP] 1 4 [/SUP], Eleonora Croce[SUP] 1 4 [/SUP], Tommaso Daffara[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Pietro Danna[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Francesco Della Corte[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Simona De Vecchi[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Umberto Dianzani[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Davide Di Benedetto[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Elia Esposto[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Fabrizio Faggiano[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Zeno Falaschi[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Daniela Ferrante[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Alice Ferrero[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Ileana Gagliardi[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Gianluca Gaidano, Alessandra Galbiati[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Silvia Gallo[SUP] 1 4 [/SUP], Pietro Luigi Garavelli[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Clara Ada Gardino[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Massimiliano Garzaro[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Maria Luisa Gastaldello[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Francesco Gavelli[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Alessandra Gennari[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Greta Maria Giacomini[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Irene Giacone[SUP] 1 4 [/SUP], Valentina Giai Via[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Francesca Giolitti[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Laura Cristina Gironi[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Carla Gramaglia[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Leonardo Grisafi[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Ilaria Inserra[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Marco Invernizzi[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Marco Krengli[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Emanuela Labella[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Irene Cecilia Landi[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Raffaella Landi[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Ilaria Leone[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Veronica Lio[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Luca Lorenzini[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Antonio Maconi[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Mario Malerba[SUP] 1 4 [/SUP], Giulia Francesca Manfredi[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Maria Martelli[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Letizia Marzari[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Paolo Marzullo[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Marco Mennuni[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Claudia Montabone[SUP] 1 4 [/SUP], Umberto Morosini[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Marco Mussa[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Ilaria Nerici[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Alessandro Nuzzo[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Carlo Olivieri[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Samuel Alberto Padelli[SUP] 1 4 [/SUP], Massimiliano Panella[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Andrea Parisini[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Alessio Pasch?[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Alberto Pau[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Anita Rebecca Pedrinelli[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Ilaria Percivale[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Roberta Re[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Cristina Rigamonti[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Eleonora Rizzi[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Andrea Rognoni[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Annalisa Roveta[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Luigia Salamina[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Matteo Santagostino[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Massimo Saraceno[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Paola Savoia[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Marco Sciarra[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Andrea Schimmenti[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Lorenza Scotti[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Enrico Spinoni[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Carlo Smirne[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Vanessa Tarantino[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Paolo Amedeo Tillio[SUP] 1 4 [/SUP], Rosanna Vaschetto[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Veronica Vassia[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Domenico Zagaria[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Elisa Zavattaro[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Patrizia Zeppegno[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Francesca Zottarelli[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Pier Paolo Sainaghi[SUP] 5 6 [/SUP]
Affiliations
- PMID: 33244144
- DOI: 10.1038/s41598-020-77698-4
Abstract
Clinical features and natural history of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) differ widely among different countries and during different phases of the pandemia. Here, we aimed to evaluate the case fatality rate (CFR) and to identify predictors of mortality in a cohort of COVID-19 patients admitted to three hospitals of Northern Italy between March 1 and April 28, 2020. All these patients had a confirmed diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 infection by molecular methods. During the study period 504/1697 patients died; thus, overall CFR was 29.7%. We looked for predictors of mortality in a subgroup of 486 patients (239 males, 59%; median age 71 years) for whom sufficient clinical data were available at data cut-off. Among the demographic and clinical variables considered, age, a diagnosis of cancer, obesity and current smoking independently predicted mortality. When laboratory data were added to the model in a further subgroup of patients, age, the diagnosis of cancer, and the baseline PaO[SUB]2[/SUB]/FiO[SUB]2[/SUB] ratio were identified as independent predictors of mortality. In conclusion, the CFR of hospitalized patients in Northern Italy during the ascending phase of the COVID-19 pandemic approached 30%. The identification of mortality predictors might contribute to better stratification of individual patient risk.