Giuseppe
Emeritus
[Source: Scientific Reports, full page: (LINK). Abstract, edited.]
Scientific Reports | Article / <ABBR>Open</ABBR>
<ABBR></ABBR>
<ABBR></ABBR>Determination of Original Infection Source of H7N9 Avian Influenza by Dynamical Model
Juan Zhang,<SUP>1, 2</SUP><SUP>, </SUP>Zhen Jin,<SUP>1</SUP><SUP>, </SUP>Gui-Quan Sun,<SUP>1, 4</SUP><SUP>, </SUP>Xiang-Dong Sun,<SUP>3</SUP><SUP>, </SUP>You-Ming Wang<SUP>3</SUP><SUP>, </SUP>& Baoxu Huang<SUP>3</SUP><SUP>, </SUP>
<SUP></SUP>
Journal name: Scientific Reports - Volume: 4, Article number: 4846 - DOI: doi:10.1038/srep04846
Received 14 February 2014 - Accepted 11 April 2014 - Published 02 May 2014
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H7N9, a newly emerging virus in China, travels among poultry and human. Although H7N9 has not aroused massive outbreaks, recurrence in the second half of 2013 makes it essential to control the spread. It is believed that the most effective control measure is to locate the original infection source and cut off the source of infection from human. However, the original infection source and the internal transmission mechanism of the new virus are not totally clear. In order to determine the original infection source of H7N9, we establish a dynamical model with migratory bird, resident bird, domestic poultry and human population, and view migratory bird, resident bird, domestic poultry as original infection source respectively to fit the true dynamics during the 2013 pandemic. By comparing the date fitting results and corresponding Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) values, we conclude that migrant birds are most likely the original infection source. In addition, we obtain the basic reproduction number in poultry and carry out sensitivity analysis of some parameters.
Subject terms: Applied mathematics ? Influenza virus
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Scientific Reports | Article / <ABBR>Open</ABBR>
<ABBR></ABBR>
<ABBR></ABBR>Determination of Original Infection Source of H7N9 Avian Influenza by Dynamical Model
Juan Zhang,<SUP>1, 2</SUP><SUP>, </SUP>Zhen Jin,<SUP>1</SUP><SUP>, </SUP>Gui-Quan Sun,<SUP>1, 4</SUP><SUP>, </SUP>Xiang-Dong Sun,<SUP>3</SUP><SUP>, </SUP>You-Ming Wang<SUP>3</SUP><SUP>, </SUP>& Baoxu Huang<SUP>3</SUP><SUP>, </SUP>
<SUP></SUP>
Journal name: Scientific Reports - Volume: 4, Article number: 4846 - DOI: doi:10.1038/srep04846
Received 14 February 2014 - Accepted 11 April 2014 - Published 02 May 2014
____
H7N9, a newly emerging virus in China, travels among poultry and human. Although H7N9 has not aroused massive outbreaks, recurrence in the second half of 2013 makes it essential to control the spread. It is believed that the most effective control measure is to locate the original infection source and cut off the source of infection from human. However, the original infection source and the internal transmission mechanism of the new virus are not totally clear. In order to determine the original infection source of H7N9, we establish a dynamical model with migratory bird, resident bird, domestic poultry and human population, and view migratory bird, resident bird, domestic poultry as original infection source respectively to fit the true dynamics during the 2013 pandemic. By comparing the date fitting results and corresponding Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) values, we conclude that migrant birds are most likely the original infection source. In addition, we obtain the basic reproduction number in poultry and carry out sensitivity analysis of some parameters.
Subject terms: Applied mathematics ? Influenza virus
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