tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Sci Rep
. 2022 Jun 4;12(1):9332.
doi: 10.1038/s41598-022-13371-2.
COVID-19 waves: variant dynamics and control
Abhishek Dutta[SUP] 1 [/SUP]
Affiliations
Abstract
The waves of COVID-19 infections driven by its variants continue to nullify the success we achieved through efficacious vaccines, social restrictions, testing and quarantine policies. This paper models the two major variants-driven waves by two sets of susceptible-infected-quarantined-recovered-vaccinated-deceased coupled dynamics that are modulated by the three main interventions: vaccination, quarantine and restrictions. This [Formula: see text] system is used to demonstrate that the second major novel coronavirus wave in the US is caused by the delta variant and the corresponding rapid surge in infectious cases is driven by the unvaccinated pool of the populace. Next, a feedback control based planned vaccination strategy is derived and is shown to be able to suppress the surge in infections effectively.
. 2022 Jun 4;12(1):9332.
doi: 10.1038/s41598-022-13371-2.
COVID-19 waves: variant dynamics and control
Abhishek Dutta[SUP] 1 [/SUP]
Affiliations
- PMID: 35661125
- DOI: 10.1038/s41598-022-13371-2
Abstract
The waves of COVID-19 infections driven by its variants continue to nullify the success we achieved through efficacious vaccines, social restrictions, testing and quarantine policies. This paper models the two major variants-driven waves by two sets of susceptible-infected-quarantined-recovered-vaccinated-deceased coupled dynamics that are modulated by the three main interventions: vaccination, quarantine and restrictions. This [Formula: see text] system is used to demonstrate that the second major novel coronavirus wave in the US is caused by the delta variant and the corresponding rapid surge in infectious cases is driven by the unvaccinated pool of the populace. Next, a feedback control based planned vaccination strategy is derived and is shown to be able to suppress the surge in infections effectively.