tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Sci Rep
. 2022 Dec 6;12(1):21096.
doi: 10.1038/s41598-022-21674-7.
Containment of SARS-CoV-2 Delta strain in Guangzhou, China by quarantine and social distancing: a modelling study
Zhiqi Zeng[SUP] #[/SUP][SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Tong Wu[SUP] #[/SUP][SUP] 3 4 [/SUP], Zhijie Lin[SUP] #[/SUP][SUP] 3 [/SUP], Lei Luo[SUP] #[/SUP][SUP] 5 [/SUP], Zhengshi Lin[SUP] #[/SUP][SUP] 1 [/SUP], Wenda Guan[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Jingyi Liang[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Minfei Yu[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Peikun Guan[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Wei He[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Zige Liu[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Guibin Lu[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Peifang Xie[SUP] 6 [/SUP], Canxiong Chen[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Eric H Y Lau[SUP] 7 8 [/SUP], Zifeng Yang[SUP] 9 10 11 [/SUP], Chitin Hon[SUP] 12 13 [/SUP], Jianxing He[SUP] 14 [/SUP]
Affiliations
Abstract
China detected the first case of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection with Delta variant in May 2021. We assessed control strategies against this variant of concern. We constructed a robust transmission model to assess the effectiveness of interventions against the Delta variant in Guangzhou with initial quarantine/isolation, followed by social distancing. We also assessed the effectiveness of alternative strategies and that against potentially more infectious variants. The effective reproduction number (R[SUB]t[/SUB]) fell below 1 when the average daily number of close contacts was reduced to ≤ 7 and quarantine/isolation was implemented on average at the same day of symptom onset in Guangzhou. Simulations showed that the outbreak could still be contained when quarantine is implemented on average 1 day after symptom onset while the average daily number of close contacts was reduced to ≤ 9 per person one week after the outbreak's beginning. Early quarantine and reduction of close contacts were found to be important for containment of the outbreaks. Early implementation of quarantine/isolation along with social distancing measures could effectively suppress spread of the Delta and more infectious variants.
. 2022 Dec 6;12(1):21096.
doi: 10.1038/s41598-022-21674-7.
Containment of SARS-CoV-2 Delta strain in Guangzhou, China by quarantine and social distancing: a modelling study
Zhiqi Zeng[SUP] #[/SUP][SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Tong Wu[SUP] #[/SUP][SUP] 3 4 [/SUP], Zhijie Lin[SUP] #[/SUP][SUP] 3 [/SUP], Lei Luo[SUP] #[/SUP][SUP] 5 [/SUP], Zhengshi Lin[SUP] #[/SUP][SUP] 1 [/SUP], Wenda Guan[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Jingyi Liang[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Minfei Yu[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Peikun Guan[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Wei He[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Zige Liu[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Guibin Lu[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Peifang Xie[SUP] 6 [/SUP], Canxiong Chen[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Eric H Y Lau[SUP] 7 8 [/SUP], Zifeng Yang[SUP] 9 10 11 [/SUP], Chitin Hon[SUP] 12 13 [/SUP], Jianxing He[SUP] 14 [/SUP]
Affiliations
- PMID: 36473881
- DOI: 10.1038/s41598-022-21674-7
Abstract
China detected the first case of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection with Delta variant in May 2021. We assessed control strategies against this variant of concern. We constructed a robust transmission model to assess the effectiveness of interventions against the Delta variant in Guangzhou with initial quarantine/isolation, followed by social distancing. We also assessed the effectiveness of alternative strategies and that against potentially more infectious variants. The effective reproduction number (R[SUB]t[/SUB]) fell below 1 when the average daily number of close contacts was reduced to ≤ 7 and quarantine/isolation was implemented on average at the same day of symptom onset in Guangzhou. Simulations showed that the outbreak could still be contained when quarantine is implemented on average 1 day after symptom onset while the average daily number of close contacts was reduced to ≤ 9 per person one week after the outbreak's beginning. Early quarantine and reduction of close contacts were found to be important for containment of the outbreaks. Early implementation of quarantine/isolation along with social distancing measures could effectively suppress spread of the Delta and more infectious variants.