Scenarios for pre-pandemic zoonotic influenza preparedness and response

[Commonground]

4 Dec 2025



The aim of this framework is to guide a scalable public health response to influenza of zoonotic origin in EU/EEA countries and provide options for preparing and responding to different possible pre-pandemic scenarios. The European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) reported unprecedented levels of HPAI A(H5N1) circulation in wild birds across Europe during the 2025 autumn migration, highlighting the need for strengthened preparedness and coordinated public health action.

We have defined 14 scenarios based on specific epidemiological and virological factors, including animal origin, characteristics of human cases (number and exposure context), severity signals, that are then further defined based on the presence of virus mammalian adaptation, antiviral resistance and mismatch with available pre-pandemic vaccines and/or candidate vaccine viruses. The document provides a detailed guide and a simple downloadable Excel tool for defining and scoring the different scenarios based on early triggers, promoting transparency and coherence across countries, integrating a One Health perspective, through focusing on the public health side of the response measures; it describes the baseline/escalating public health actions that should be in place/implemented to ensure a timely and effective response.

Baseline actions in surveillance, laboratory preparedness and other public health interventions should always be in place in the current epidemiological situation in the EU/EEA. If there are human cases in the EU/EEA, escalating actions will apply depending on the scenario characteristics and will be further defined according to the assessment of the risk assessment; examples of escalating actions are described for every public health domain: interventions, surveillance, laboratory preparedness and additional studies/research. This guidance aims to strengthen countries’ preparedness and capacities for the early detection and assessment of potential pandemic threats from zoonotic influenza viruses. The scenario framework is intended to inform appropriate public health actions, adaptable to evolving scientific evidence and the changing epidemiological context.

The framework is intended for EU/EEA national public health authorities, in particular those involved in preparedness plan updating, risk assessors and managers, and policy-makers in EU/EEA countries. It is also relevant to clinical and laboratory stakeholders involved in zoonotic influenza surveillance, risk communication, and outbreak response.

​ Download
Scenarios for pre-pandemic zoonotic influenza preparedness and response - EN - [PDF-3.16 MB]​

Instructions for using the ECDC publication ’Scenarios for pre-pandemic zoonotic influenza preparedness and response in the EU/EEA' - EN - [PDF-187.84 KB]
Excel tool: Scenarios for pre-pandemic zoonotic influenza preparedness and response in the EU/EEA, version 1.0 - EN - [XLSX-352.93 KB]​

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publi...-zoonotic-influenza-preparedness-and-response

 

[Commonground]

Press Release
ECDC defines strategies to fight avian and swine flu in humans
4 Dec 2025



Unprecedented outbreaks in birds highlight the need for early detection and preparedness.

This autumn, Europe has seen a sharp increase in avian influenza A(H5N1) cases in wild birds and poultry. Its wide circulation among birds increases the risk of human exposure to infected animals and the virus subsequently spilling over to humans.

The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) has today released a guide and tools to help European countries detect and respond to possible animal-related influenza threats, including pandemics.

‘Although the current risk for the European people is low, avian influenza is still a serious public health threat due to widespread outbreaks among animals across Europe.’ says Edoardo Colzani, ECDC Head of Respiratory Viruses. ‘We need to make sure that early warning signs don’t go unnoticed and that public health actions are timely, coordinated, and effective. This document provides countries with a clear and adaptable framework to prepare for and respond to animal-to-human influenza transmission.’​

This new guide sets out practical response scenarios ranging from the current situation - where no human cases have been reported in the European Union (EU)/European Economic Area (EEA) but avian influenza viruses are circulating widely in animals - to more serious scenarios involving human infections and even potential transmission human-to-human that could lead to a pandemic.

The framework is designed to help countries act quickly and proportionately as risks evolve. It includes a range of public health response measures, from enhancing surveillance and laboratory testing to ensuring protective equipment is available and communicating clearly with the public. It also highlights the importance of genomic surveillance, laboratory capacity building, and real-time data sharing.

Crucially, the guidance embraces a ‘One Health’ approach, recognising that human health is closely connected to the health of animals and the environment. Close collaboration between veterinary services, agriculture, and public health, is essential to detect and contain threats early and protect people across Europe.

The guide was developed in close collaboration with the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA), the European Medicines Agency (EMA), the European Agency for Safety and Health at Work (EU-OSHA), the European Reference Laboratory for avian influenza and national experts. These materials are designed to help countries integrate the recommendations into their national preparedness plans.

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/news-events/ecdc-defines-strategies-fight-avian-and-swine-flu-humans


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[sharon sanders]

Please see:

ECDC Pre-pandemic Guidance: Strategies to Fight Avian and Swine flu in Humans​