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OPEC cuts oil demand projections for remainder of 2026
10/13/26 3:04 PM ET
Excerpt:
The group projected Tuesday that oil demand for this year will grow by roughly 200,000 barrels per day relative to 2025, down from OPEC’s forecast in September of about 400,000 barrels per day.
OPEC’s forecast of 2026 oil demand also fell last month from roughly 600,000 barrels per day in August, as the Iran war and its spillover impacts on the energy industry persist.
-snip-
Challenges that the oil industry is facing will not slow demand for petroleum next year, OPEC projected...
The organization raised its forecast for global oil demand in 2027 to about 2.6 million barrels per day, up from its September projection of roughly 2.4 million barrels per day.
World oil demand is forecast to fall by 2.5 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q26 and 2.6 mb/d on average in 2026. As the Iran war manifests itself through restricted product availability, soaring fuel prices and a deteriorating economic outlook, diesel will register 25% of the drop. A partial recovery, of 2 mb/d, will leave 2027 global oil use 620 kb/d, or 0.6%, below 2025 levels.
Global oil supply increased by 2.5 mb/d m-o-m to 102.3 mb/d in September, driven by Gulf producers. OPEC+ gains of 2.1 mb/d were led by Saudi Arabia, while the UAE drove non-OPEC+ increases. Oil supply is projected to post an average annual decline of 5.8 mb/d, to 100.7 mb/d, this year, before reversing course and rising by 7.7 mb/d in 2027. Renewed attacks in the Gulf leave the recovery fragile.
Global refinery runs are set to hit a seasonal low of 81.3 mb/d in October before rebounding to 84.6 mb/d by year-end. Record freight and crude costs crushed margins in Europe and Asia, while discounted feedstocks propelled US margins to new highs. Global runs will drop by 2.3 mb/d, to 81.7 mb/d, this year, and rise by 2.8 mb/d in 2027.
Diesel markets remained under significant strain as prolonged supply disruptions forced counter-seasonal stock draws ahead of autumn refinery maintenance and peak winter demand. Global diesel exports in September were 700 kb/d lower y-o-y, as a 1.3 mb/d loss from Russia and the Middle East was only partly offset by higher supply from other sources.
Global observed oil inventories edged down by 10 mb in September as a further 113 mb decline in on-land stocks was largely offset by a surge in oil on water. Non-OECD crude stocks slumped by 76 mb, with China accounting for 78% of the decline, while OECD inventories dropped by 37 mb. Global stocks were 509 mb (-2.4 mb/d) lower than at end-February.
North Sea Dated crude soared by $26.17/bbl m-o-m to $116.89/bbl in September, as renewed Middle East hostilities disrupted supplies and Asian refiners accelerated purchases. The 11 September bombing of the Saudi East-West Pipeline and an exponential rise in freight rates compounded the rally. At the time of writing, Dated was trading around $134/bbl.
Fragile rebound...
Gasoil and diesel market tightness set to extend into 2027...
Higher global refinery output will return the gasoil/diesel market to a surplus in 1Q27, lifting stocks broadly in line with normal seasonal patterns. However, this will be insufficient to offset the deficit accumulated during 2026. As a result, the gasoil market balance will remain tight well into 2027 and is dependent on a recovery of product supply from the Middle East. Failing this, further demand reductions and the heavy economic costs these will entail may be needed to balance markets.
Against this challenging backdrop, on 2 October, G7 leaders announced their commitment to accelerate the delivery of the agreed volumes under the IEA Collective Action of 11 March, with the priority on the speedy release of diesel supplies to the market in the coming weeks.
IEA Governing Board statement on energy markets and security
15 October 2026
In today’s meeting, the IEA Governing Board reiterated its commitment to international energy security.
The IEA Governing Board noted the IEA Secretariat's most recent assessments, which point to continued tightness in oil markets, notably for diesel. They stated their willingness to take further actions to address challenges in global energy markets, building on the G7 statement of 2 October.
