Emily
Editor, Senior Moderator
https://www.ng.ru/economics/2022-02-10/4_8369_march.html
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10.02.2022 21:12:00
March could be a turning point in the fight against the pandemic
Russia enters political global anti-COVID easing race
Anastasia Bashkatova
Deputy Head of the Economics Department of Nezavisimaya Gazeta
More and more countries are talking about the imminent lifting of anti-COVID restrictions, including vaccine passports. According to experts, the real turning point may come in March. Signs of relaxation are also visible in Russia: decisions are being made that recently seemed unrealizable, for example, to issue certificates for tests, including express, for antibodies. But even if the restrictions are softened, this is not yet a guarantee of rapid development, in particular, of the service sector. In the Russian Federation, in addition to covid, there are other problems - the stagnation of incomes of the population.
...
“The actions of the European authorities are connected, in our opinion, with two circumstances. First, with the expectation that a new type of coronavirus will work as a vaccine and the pandemic will turn into a mild seasonal illness. Secondly, with the accumulated fatigue and discontent that overwhelm developed countries,” explained Dmitry Zhuravlev, scientific director of the Institute of Regional Problems.
According to him, in this case, the authorities made a choice not only in favor of preserving the economy, but also, apparently, "in favor of preserving themselves."
All this creates a dilemma for Russian officials as well. “As long as restrictions were everywhere, people tolerated them. But against the backdrop of the lifting of restrictions in Europe, the question of the same lifting of restrictions in Russia will rise to its full height,” Zhuravlev suggests. “Meanwhile, the number of cases in our country is very high and the lifting of restrictions would be inappropriate,” he said.
As follows from the expert's explanations, it is possible that "our authorities (and these will be regional authorities) will have to choose between people's health, on the one hand, and economic and social stability, on the other." “The lifting of restrictions will give an impetus to the development of the economy, stabilize public tension, unless it leads to a new round of the epidemic,” Zhuravlev continued. This is true for the world in general, and for Russia in particular.
Although, as Ivan Samoylenko, managing partner of the B&C Agency, clarified, if we talk about the consumption model, it is unlikely that it will recover quickly. Indeed, over the past two years, the middle class of the population has also suffered greatly. Let's add global inflation.
In Russia, this is an acute problem: in order for the same service sector to be able not only to win back the pandemic failure, but to demonstrate rapid growth already from the level that it was before covid, it will also be necessary to ensure a stable increase in the income of the population.
Meanwhile, the incomes of the population, we recall, even before the pandemic did not have time to return to the level of the pre-crisis 2013.
https://www-ng-ru.translate.goog/ec...uto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-US&_x_tr_pto=wapp
10.02.2022 21:12:00
March could be a turning point in the fight against the pandemic
Russia enters political global anti-COVID easing race
Anastasia Bashkatova
Deputy Head of the Economics Department of Nezavisimaya Gazeta
More and more countries are talking about the imminent lifting of anti-COVID restrictions, including vaccine passports. According to experts, the real turning point may come in March. Signs of relaxation are also visible in Russia: decisions are being made that recently seemed unrealizable, for example, to issue certificates for tests, including express, for antibodies. But even if the restrictions are softened, this is not yet a guarantee of rapid development, in particular, of the service sector. In the Russian Federation, in addition to covid, there are other problems - the stagnation of incomes of the population.
...
“The actions of the European authorities are connected, in our opinion, with two circumstances. First, with the expectation that a new type of coronavirus will work as a vaccine and the pandemic will turn into a mild seasonal illness. Secondly, with the accumulated fatigue and discontent that overwhelm developed countries,” explained Dmitry Zhuravlev, scientific director of the Institute of Regional Problems.
According to him, in this case, the authorities made a choice not only in favor of preserving the economy, but also, apparently, "in favor of preserving themselves."
All this creates a dilemma for Russian officials as well. “As long as restrictions were everywhere, people tolerated them. But against the backdrop of the lifting of restrictions in Europe, the question of the same lifting of restrictions in Russia will rise to its full height,” Zhuravlev suggests. “Meanwhile, the number of cases in our country is very high and the lifting of restrictions would be inappropriate,” he said.
As follows from the expert's explanations, it is possible that "our authorities (and these will be regional authorities) will have to choose between people's health, on the one hand, and economic and social stability, on the other." “The lifting of restrictions will give an impetus to the development of the economy, stabilize public tension, unless it leads to a new round of the epidemic,” Zhuravlev continued. This is true for the world in general, and for Russia in particular.
Although, as Ivan Samoylenko, managing partner of the B&C Agency, clarified, if we talk about the consumption model, it is unlikely that it will recover quickly. Indeed, over the past two years, the middle class of the population has also suffered greatly. Let's add global inflation.
In Russia, this is an acute problem: in order for the same service sector to be able not only to win back the pandemic failure, but to demonstrate rapid growth already from the level that it was before covid, it will also be necessary to ensure a stable increase in the income of the population.
Meanwhile, the incomes of the population, we recall, even before the pandemic did not have time to return to the level of the pre-crisis 2013.
