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Risk in Perspective: Valuing "Lives Saved" vs. "Life-Years Saved"

Laidback Al

Well-known member
Valuing "Lives Saved" vs. "Life-Years Saved"
Risk in Perspective, March 2008

link to pdf file: http://www.hcra.harvard.edu/rip/rip_Mar_2008.pdf

Excerpt:
Introduction<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p></o:p>
James K. Hammitt<o:p></o:p>
<o:p></o:p>
<o:p></o:p>
There is long-standing debate whether<o:p></o:p>
to count ?lives saved? or ?life-years saved?<o:p></o:p>
when evaluating policies to reduce mortality<o:p></o:p>
risk. Historically, the two approaches<o:p></o:p>
have been applied in different domains.<o:p></o:p>
Environmental and transportation policies<o:p></o:p>
have often been evaluated using lives<o:p></o:p>
saved, while life-years saved has been the<o:p></o:p>
preferred metric in other areas of public<o:p></o:p>
health including medicine, vaccination, and<o:p></o:p>
disease screening. For benefit-cost analysis,<o:p></o:p>
the monetary value of risk reductions<o:p></o:p>
can be calculated either by multiplying expected<o:p></o:p>
lives saved by the ?value per statistical<o:p></o:p>
life? (VSL) or by multiplying expected<o:p></o:p>
life-years saved by the ?value per<o:p></o:p>
statistical life-year? (VSLY).<o:p></o:p>
<o:p></o:p>
The choice between metrics can affect<o:p></o:p>
the apparent merits of regulatory programs<o:p></o:p>
that affect people with different life expectancies.<o:p></o:p>
For example, the air-pollution<o:p></o:p>
measures that dominate the <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" /><st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">U.S.</st1:place></st1:country-region> regulatory<o:p></o:p>
agenda may disproportionately benefit people<o:p></o:p>
who are older or in poor health and<o:p></o:p>
have shorter-than-average life expectancies.<o:p></o:p>
The benefits of these rules may appear<o:p></o:p>
larger when counting lives rather than lifeyears<o:p></o:p>
saved. Conversely, policies to protect<o:p></o:p>
children such as car-seat requirements may<o:p></o:p>
appear to be larger when counting lifeyears<o:p></o:p>
saved. The <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">U.S.</st1:place></st1:country-region> Office of Management<o:p></o:p>
and Budget has encouraged federal<o:p></o:p>
agencies to analyze regulations using both<o:p></o:p>
the lives-saved and life-years-saved approaches.<o:p></o:p>
<o:p></o:p>
In this issue of Risk in Perspective, I<o:p></o:p>
describe how the value of any intervention<o:p></o:p>
that alters mortality risk can be expressed<o:p></o:p>
using either lives saved or life-years saved<o:p></o:p>
and the appropriate VSL or VSLY. However,<o:p></o:p>
because theory and empirical evidence<o:p></o:p>
suggest that neither VSL nor VSLY<o:p></o:p>
is constant over an individual?s life, accurate<o:p></o:p>
valuation requires using values that<o:p></o:p>
depend on characteristics of the affected<o:p></o:p>
individuals. The extent to which VSL and<o:p></o:p>
VSLY vary with life expectancy, age,<o:p></o:p>
health, and other factors is not clear; better<o:p></o:p>
empirical evidence is required. . . .

from-

Harvard Center for Risk Analysis (HCRA): Risk in Perspective

Our newsletter allows HCRA faculty and invited authors to communicate their research on an issue of interest. It provides a shorter and more accessible account of research findings and their policy relevance.

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<o:p></o:p>
<o:p>http://www.hcra.harvard.edu/index.html</o:p>
 
Re: Risk in Perspective: Valuing "Lives Saved" vs. "Life-Years Saved"

The social value, the 'worth' of goods and services are intrinsically related to volume available. An over-abundance reduces value.

At what point does it sink home that an overabundance of humans in a resource limited system does nothing to improve the value of each new unit (human lives added to the overall population)??

At ~6.6 billion units, human lives have questionable value in terms of social benefit gain, but carry ever-increasing physical and social maintenance costs that collectively increase risk for the rest of us. The pretense that we humans have inherent value arises from historic experience of periodic massive loss of life within and across regions. By the year 1900, twenty percent of humans died within the first few years of infancy in the richest nations while they died at nearly triple the rate in the poorest; if you lived past the crucial age of five, the odds of surviving to a 'ripe' age of 45 or 50 was pretty good, presupposing that you weren't killed in war, by starvation, accident or pestilence in adulthood. If you belonged to the lower working class, you might not be in the best of health when poverty, drought or famine dwindled local food supply, but you didn't necessarily succumb to disease as an adult.

So why do we have all the fuss and bother over human lives saved - when we do so very little to keep those lives from being lost to war, poverty and famine, chronic and infectious disease? The most populace nations suffer the worst, when wealth inequity dominates society, driving civil unrest, ethnic cleansing, and enforced famine. We have poor nations awash in sudden mineral wealth, that do NOTHING for the staving rural poor. They fully expect that wealthier nations will continue to provide 'emergency' aide, year after year, as they have done for decades.

All that foreign aide has accomplished it to increase the population of rural poor who willingly immigrate to escape grinding poverty.

Infectious disease epidemics arise for dashed good reasons. The foremost of physical drivers is overpopulation. The fact that cannot be disputed: humankind is long 'over-due' for a population reset.

The winnowing of the genetically weak by predators (including microbial types) has been the biological norm for millions of years, a system of resource availability and niche fitness checks and balances that shaped hominid history from the time of the Ice Age. If one examines graphs of global population estimates, you see that regional population began to drift beyond 'typical' population controls, about the year 1750, in China, the most densely populated nation at that time:

p_18_m.gif


Asia represented 63% of the world population of 791 million; it has represented between 55-65% of the world population, for the last two thousand years. It is also the purported origin of many medically important infectious diseases.

The year 1750 is nearly universally recognized as the beginning of the Modern Industrial Age. A dizzying progression of technological innovation would forever change age-old patterns of living and survival 'against' the odds and usher in a wave of social reordering that would dwarf previous, remarkable eras of civilization. It simultaneously marked the rise of middle class wealth and the beginning of the end of the dominance by landed peerage and religious states.

With technological prowess that afforded industrial, merchantile and agricultural productivity and wealth, men began to explore the concept of managing public health in earnest. As the wealth of the common man began to accumulate in industrialized nations, the global population rose in response to continued increase in food supply and mechanization that reduced human and animal labor, alongside improvements in affordable shelter and medical care, although general longevity would remain below age 50 in the more wealthy nations until the turn of the twentieth century.

Life expectancy increased by more than 60 percent through the end of the twentieth century in Industrialized Nations, largely due to improvements in sanitation science, but continues to lag in the poorest nations, barely improved over typical life expectancy of many thousands of years past. Global population climbed to 2,521 million by mid-century and an astronomical 6 billion by it's end.

Pray tell, how has this dramatic surge in life-years improved the value of human life on this planet?

To put risk in perspective, the larger your population, the greater the shared risk burden to each and every unit, because disease thrives under poverty conditions in densely populated environments. Thus the number living in poverty will rise as the fixed quality of resource wealth is divided into increasingly smaller proportion to offset cumulative human-years maintenance (social cost of each added unit and life-year). Not only is poverty rising, but we are also loosing important land value, as urban habitation expands and arable landmass declines.

It is an Achilles Heel that cannot be avoided.
 
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