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Risk Communication Dichotomy: BF a Threat or Not???

sharon sanders

Editor-in-Chief & President
Academic says bird flu threat remains



A Gold Coast academic says Australia is still vulnerable to a bird flu pandemic.
The World Health Organisation has estimated a flu pandemic could kill 7.5 million people annually, although some estimates run as high as 62 million.
Professor Mark Von Itzstein from Griffith University helped to develop one of the drugs that are being stockpiled to fight an avian influenza outbreak.
He says there is no magic curtain that protects Australia.
"We have migratory bird populations that come around, whether that has impact or not is another matter, the threat has not gone away," he said.

"Clearly H5N1 is still there, it is still causing loss of life, there are other viruses also appearing and that heightens the importance of surveillance to be ongoing.



http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/02/12/2160035.htm?section=australia


 
Re: Risk Communication Dichotomy: BF a Threat or Not???

<table><tbody><tr><td>
H5NI not a communicable disease, say experts
</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr> <td> Staff Reporter
</td> </tr><tr> <td> LAHORE: There is no need to be afraid as the infective agent of the Bird Flu, H5N1 has not the ability of easy human-to-human transmission. Several outbreaks of the H5N1 strain have been found in birds in Pakistan over the past five years and the first human case was confirmed in December 2007 in the population of 170 million so far due to sound surveillance. These views were expressed by the speakers at a workshop with the theme "Mutation and risk calculations in "H5N1" organised by Pakistan Medical Society (PMS) here on Monday.

PMS Chairman Dr Masood Akhtar Sheikh, Dr Ali, Dr Israr Hussain Asif, Dr Fauzia and Dr Sajid were the key speakers while the workshop was attended by a good number of doctors and medical students. Speaking on the occasion, Dr Masood Akhtar Shaikh observed that H5N1 avian influenza had not yet attained the ability to mutate and transmission man to man. It is being feared that the virus if mutates, it can attain the ability of the inter-species transfer, he obsessed. "Bird flu is an avian influenza virus which presents in a silent form in the wild water fowls like ducks for the last many centuries. These, being the carriers, may harbour the virus without any evidence of the symptomatic disease. The disease may be shown in the poultry flocks in which the severe form of the disease becomes symptomatic, may result in the death of the birds in a short span of time, he added.







http://www.thepost.com.pk/CityNews.aspx?dtlid=144135&catid=3




</td></tr></tbody></table>
 
Re: Risk Communication Dichotomy: BF a Threat or Not???

Trying to comment that obvious dichotomy,
from the cited plain text statement facts, and without debating the sequence proveniences:

"Bird flu is an avian influenza virus which presents in a silent form in the wild water fowls like ducks for the last many centuries. These, being the carriers, may harbour the virus without any evidence of the symptomatic disease."

Seems that the above sentence is an fact, if the formulation "avian virus" means the various avian strains, including the fact of the actual wild birds dying in various parts also.

It will be interesting to know why at Hong Kong 1997 the virus erupted to a dozen humans, and after the cooling of the chickens it vanish - that means it can't spread to humans by wild birds at the time?

Why it started another deadly mutation at Chingai lake?
Why those mutations start to happen if these are not random mutations?
Artificialy started? Dr. Niman theory?

"Dr Masood Akhtar Shaikh observed that H5N1 avian influenza had not yet attained the ability to mutate and transmission man to man, ...
The disease may be shown in the poultry flocks in which the severe form of the disease becomes symptomatic, may result in the death of the birds in a short span of time ..."

The above fact (for now) can point till now, that without the poultry vector, avian flu don't propagate to humans (H2H2H) by wild birds without direct exposure, and manipulative contact with dead wild birds.

The statement "Academic says bird flu threat remains",
probably reflect the next text:
"Clearly H5N1 is still there, it is still causing loss of life, there are other viruses also appearing and that heightens the importance of surveillance to be ongoing."

We start to see more already human seasonal flu virus that mutated, at the same time when the H5N1 strains which afected poultry and wild birds, after 10 years can't achieve the H2H2H jump.

At this point (the mathematic reasearchers will said better), last 2 years, when we have already infections in China, Vietnam, Tailand, Indonesia, Egipt, India, Bangladesh,..., hundred of milions contact-tryings for AH5N1 to became a human virus, because that's are the numbers of humans already in contact with wild birds and bilions of poultry in rural areas afected by the avian flu strains, and it not jumped!

Statisticaly, 100.000 tryings have some relevance, 100 milions will be enaugh to state that maybe there are now much more probabilities that AH5N1 will not jump so easy.

At the same time the already human viruses changed with many mutations every season, and that threat can also give an pandemic strain, maybe easier than the avian strain.

P.S. Please, don't crucif... the heretic ...
 
Re: Risk Communication Dichotomy: BF a Threat or Not???

Considering the monetary losses some of these countries have suffered due to AI in poultry, it seems to me they should set up funds for the farmers to build chicken pens.

If it is indeed in the migratory birds that are spreading this disease, penning up the poultry should solve the problem.
 
Re: Risk Communication Dichotomy: BF a Threat or Not???

Considering the monetary losses some of these countries have suffered due to AI in poultry, it seems to me they should set up funds for the farmers to build chicken pens.

If it is indeed in the migratory birds that are spreading this disease, penning up the poultry should solve the problem.

Considering the other farmers (not funded) needs in some areas, and the vastity of lands with infections in poultry, it will be not done easy in some countries.

The birds spreads the disease to the poultry, but than, by the meaning of humans without biosecurity measures, and by the trade of infected poultry, people spreads further the disease.
 
Re: Risk Communication Dichotomy: BF a Threat or Not???

True, it would not be easy to do; but it does seem like the only solution *if* (I'm not convinced yet they are *the* source) the reservior is wild birds.

So, if the govt can/will not want to take monetary steps to protect the poultry, then what is the alternative?

Edited to add: I wonder how much of a viral load stays on the bottoms of shoes?
 
Re: Risk Communication Dichotomy: BF a Threat or Not???

True, it would not be easy to do; but it does seem like the only solution *if* (I'm not convinced yet they are *the* source) the reservior is wild birds.

So, if the govt can/will not want to take monetary steps to protect the poultry, then what is the alternative?

Edited to add: I wonder how much of a viral load stays on the bottoms of shoes?
Enaugh, that's why setting up in/out desinfection barriers for vehicles, and people.

The alternative is that things will evolve their (wrong) way.
 
Re: Risk Communication Dichotomy: BF a Threat or Not???

You have left out the poor in your scenario. Those who own tiny flocks do not have the means to enclose them. Neither do they have the money to disinfect every time someone goes into the chicken or duck yard. These people depend upon the birds ability to forage for some of their own food. In Europe, North America, or a few other places, you might be able to make a convincing argument for enclosing all poultry but, I doubt it.

It is extremely important to remember to read critically any news reports. Who made them? Is this person an expert or not? Does their message jive* with other experts? Could there be a financial or political reason for releasing the articles? You need to also be aware of any of your own preconceived notions. We all have filters in place. Some of us see pandemic under every stone, others think the disease has had every opportunity to become a h2h one by now and, as it hasn't become a pandemic, it won't ever become one. This is what the above article is saying. But the fallacy with that argument is we are all ignorant of what it takes to get to the tipping point. We have never watched a pandemic influenza move from no threat, to a global disaster before. A slow motion disaster isn't what most of us thought would happen.

Really, nothing has changed in bird flu-dom. We are still watching the virus change incrementally. We still wait with baited breath the first dual infections either in humans or pigs. And we still hear from politicians there is no threat, as a means to protect their poultry industry and quell panic in citizens. No one can put a time limit on when the virus would shift from b2h to h2h. It has always been an unknown. It is still unknown. The risk has gone up since fall of last year. The requirements for ideal temperature have dropped for some strains, and Tamiflu resistant strains are now beginning to circulate. The two have not yet met and married but, they could at any time.

Even if the lower temperature requirement never met the Tamiflu resistant strain we should still be alarmed. What happens next time we have thousands of birds die in a place like Africa or India? You saw the pictures-only some of the cullers were protected and none of the owners or bystanders were. We all read the stories of hungry people digging up the dead birds and eating them. If a family is so desperate for food they are willing to eat diseased and buried birds, do you think they have the ability to sterilize everything the bird touches prior to cooking? Of course they don't.

Tamiflu is the only thing keeping the disease at bay. Tamiflu blankets are effectively limiting the spread of the disease. If the virus cannot replicate and then infect another human, it is stopped in it's tracks. If however, Tamiflu ceases to be effective, then there is nothing to slow the replication. Neither is there anything to halt the disease spreading to other people. The only alternatives are antiviral cocktails and complete isolation of patients. Quarantine, or isolation, would be impossible as every computer driven model has shown. We can use a cocktail for a while but it too is going to be both more expensive and short-lived.

All we are doing is buying time not eradicating the cause of the disease. It would be impossible to go to the source and eliminate all carriers of the disease. It would be utterly impossible to require every citizen in the world to pen their birds. Chicken is a cheap and often only source of protein for a significant portion of the worlds people. We aren't seeing fewer chickens die. We aren't seeing flocks remain free of the disease in places that have been infected previously. We still see people get sick. We still see agencies cover up any illness with tests designed to fail. What we also see is the steady geographical spread and, poor nations completely unable to cope with monitoring the possibility of bird flu.

You have been given the gift of time, education and, a front row seat. The threat continues to grow and has not lessened one iota. At some time, chances are the H5N1 virus is going to occur in a mammal who is already infected with H1N1 or, it is going to infect a person who does not benefit from Tamiflu.


*Jive=mesh or, be the same as or, close to the same.
 
Re: Risk Communication Dichotomy: BF a Threat or Not???

Hi Shannon,

I'm glad that a few member still want to try to comment those massive data related to bf stored on FT. Thank you, and mixin.

1. First, I'm wroted many times here at FT about the media silence on TV.
That's will not changing until a pandemic will start, and the people start to dying. Seems that we cannot do anything about.

We have an example with a seasonal flu, where (without Internet) there are not much news (something esigue, in the newspapers) about the Tamiflu resistance, and the changed, not mached, strains in the seasonal flu vaccine 07/08 (North).

2. Second, it's sure that an pandemic will come, but when?
The world top scientists don't know if it will be 1 year, 5 year, 10 year.
At the 1997., looking the TV pictures from HongKong, most of us think that it starting. But it was stopped.
After that, during the SARS scare, becames tricky.
The Chineses drasticaly start to quarantine, and desinfect even the concrete street walls. It escaped out (Canada,...), but lucky, it wasn't flu.
It was another agent, succesfully stoped in spread.
2005. We have Chingai, and so on. An unprecedent spreading to Europe.
By drastical measures, and with luck, it remained only in birds.
That time, practicaly, we see the importance of poultry in the amplification of the illness, and the subsequent danger for human infections. The infected poultry stocks payed with exterminations, and in the industrialized countries the poultry industry incorporated biosafety measures. The farmers in the afected areas must roofed, and shielded the poultry, the only way to spare the flocks.
Now we are in 2008, and the virus seems spread dangerously, but enaugh slow to not start an human pandemic for now (like OIE, and Dr. Vallat like to say: stable) in humans.

3. Because of the NON-ultimate interpretations, and the NON-knowing of the nearness of an human flu pandemic from the leading flu world scientists, and the NON-wanting of the world countries to put money in the health system, machinery, stockpilles, and to spare of working during 3 months minimaly the un-necessary workforce by self-isolation, and the NON-willing to produce by new cell technologies enaugh pre-pandemic vaccines for the whole humanity (but inserted cruel triages methodes), in the same time when they produced vaccines for poultry, was taking us to the point where we can only prepping ourself without the government, and the health insitutions.

But how this will work in an serious pandemic? Not very well for all the puer, who will not have for a piece of bred, no mention medicines, or other things.
That's exactly the my point to the question:
"So, if the govt can/will not want to take monetary steps to protect the poultry, then what is the alternative?"
I answered:
"The alternative is that things will evolve their (wrong) way."

4. The meaning of this thread is textualy:
"Risk Communication Dichotomy: BF a Threat or Not"

BF is obviously a treat, but exist also many other respiratory mutating microbe threats. We see the resistantTB in Africa, the emerging fulminant meningitis, the flsh-eater stafiloc., the resistant hospital infections, ...

Because of the slumpy financing of the health/social structures, it's normal to became pesimistic if it realy starts.

5. In that view, the OIE statement was an optimistic breeze.
If it not display the reality of facts it's on the public payed health scientists to correct the view, and if they don't want because of self-censure, than the other scientists must provide, to the public, and the researchers the facts, and publicly debate those statements.
After that, the resources will be maybe translated to health, and social preparings.


I shall try to answer to some precise questions from your post, if it was for mine (maybe was to the initial Florida post):

You have left out the poor in your scenario. "Those who own tiny flocks do not have the means to enclose them. Neither do they have the money to disinfect every time someone goes into the chicken or duck yard. These people depend upon the birds ability to forage for some of their own food. In Europe, North America, or a few other places, you might be able to make a convincing argument for enclosing all poultry but, I doubt it."
T.:
Like I said in 3., quite the oposite (about lefting out the poor).
But this way, without government funds (because we talk of enormous quantity of money), this poor people will go on without changing.
If those people cannot put the poultry, pigs, and ..., separated from the living rooms (like was separated 50 years ago in the industrial countries by law), and they eat dead infected chickens because they cannot afford anything else, changing this is changing the world.
Will that happen before a pandemic?

"It is extremely important to remember to read critically any news reports. Who made them? Is this person an expert or not? Does their message jive* with other experts? Could there be a financial or political reason for releasing the articles? You need to also be aware of any of your own preconceived notions. We all have filters in place. Some of us see pandemic under every stone, others think the disease has had every opportunity to become a h2h one by now and, as it hasn't become a pandemic, it won't ever become one. This is what the above article is saying. But the fallacy with that argument is we are all ignorant of what it takes to get to the tipping point. We have never watched a pandemic influenza move from no threat, to a global disaster before. A slow motion disaster isn't what most of us thought would happen."
T.:
I tried to answer in 2., and 3.

"Really, nothing has changed in bird flu-dom. We are still watching the virus change incrementally. We still wait with baited breath the first dual infections either in humans or pigs. And we still hear from politicians there is no threat, as a means to protect their poultry industry and quell panic in citizens. No one can put a time limit on when the virus would shift from b2h to h2h. It has always been an unknown. It is still unknown. The risk has gone up since fall of last year. The requirements for ideal temperature have dropped for some strains, and Tamiflu resistant strains are now beginning to circulate. The two have not yet met and married but, they could at any time."
T.:
I agree. But what we can done without enaugh money, with a media blanket, and the health/med./soc. sector additionaly non-financed?

"Even if the lower temperature requirement never met the Tamiflu resistant strain we should still be alarmed. What happens next time we have thousands of birds die in a place like Africa or India? You saw the pictures-only some of the cullers were protected and none of the owners or bystanders were. We all read the stories of hungry people digging up the dead birds and eating them. If a family is so desperate for food they are willing to eat diseased and buried birds, do you think they have the ability to sterilize everything the bird touches prior to cooking? Of course they don't."
T.:
Like I said, they can't, and they will not, and things will evolve their (wrong) way.

Tamiflu is the only thing keeping the disease at bay. Tamiflu blankets are effectively limiting the spread of the disease. If the virus cannot replicate and then infect another human, it is stopped in it's tracks. If however, Tamiflu ceases to be effective, then there is nothing to slow the replication.
Neither is there anything to halt the disease spreading to other people.
The only alternatives are antiviral cocktails and complete isolation of patients. Quarantine, or isolation, would be impossible as every computer driven model has shown. We can use a cocktail for a while but it too is going to be both more expensive and short-lived.
T.:
I agree with you for the Tamiflu blanket, but it is not impossible to put an quarantine - to initialy slow, and to deminish the impact during the pandemic (history of Venice plague), vast parts of land can be put on quarantine by the military (I mentioned about it one time at FT), and we can bet that this will be the only succ. way.
The isolation is not possible without isolation wards, but they will be settled at homes, schools, hotels, ships, probably in an first trying to contain the disease.

"All we are doing is buying time not eradicating the cause of the disease. It would be impossible to go to the source and eliminate all carriers of the disease. It would be utterly impossible to require every citizen in the world to pen their birds. Chicken is a cheap and often only source of protein for a significant portion of the worlds people. We aren't seeing fewer chickens die. We aren't seeing flocks remain free of the disease in places that have been infected previously. We still see people get sick. We still see agencies cover up any illness with tests designed to fail. What we also see is the steady geographical spread and, poor nations completely unable to cope with monitoring the possibility of bird flu."
T.:
I agree mostly, and I comment only few sentences.
If the source is mostly spreaded by wild birds, we can't, and I hope we dont want to exterminate all the birds, we must only stay away from them, stop totaly the smuggling, and the distribution of infected poultry meat mixed with poultry feed.
It is not necessary to ensure that every citizen pen the poultry - if every country have in place enaugh resurces to react in time, and bonificate the zone where the poultry start to dye, and stop the eating of inf. meat and it's smuggling in the zone - by force, military if necessary (the best way depends on the kind of the country).
Countries can't do the quadrature of the circle: or they invest money in, or they will have much more loses from the (poultry) infection, with repercussions to all of the world later.

"You have been given the gift of time, education and, a front row seat. The threat continues to grow and has not lessened one iota. At some time, chances are the H5N1 virus is going to occur in a mammal who is already infected with H1N1 or, it is going to infect a person who does not benefit from Tamiflu."
T.:
I agree, and we must augment the threat with the incognita of the man made illnesses, and it's world storidges, and so on.
But, we lived with that from the WWII till today, in some way, maybe we have luck to go on further.
For the H1N1 question, like I said in other posts, maybe we will not see H5N1 change in a human like virus, but we have maybe prior chances to see human flu viruses changed to pandemics - the actual Tamiflu resistance of some H1N1, and the H3N2 changes, maybe pointing to such an start of human seasonal virus more changing.
I don't like that the official WHO/.../ flu health scientists estab. don't want to release specific statements about the danger, and to insert new mandatory guideliness for the countries pandemic/or res.illness preparations.

The best health wishes, and good luck to all.

*Jive=mesh or, be the same as or, close to the same.
 
Re: Risk Communication Dichotomy: BF a Threat or Not???

Tropical,
Tell me more about this:
the distribution of infected poultry meat mixed with poultry feed.

Every time I have see reports of AI in a few birds in commercial layer operations (where I assume the birds are caged and housed), I think I would immediately look for contaminated feed if they were my birds. It never crossed my mind they might be putting diseased chickens back into poultry feed.
 
Re: Risk Communication Dichotomy: BF a Threat or Not???

Tropical,
Tell me more about this:

Every time I have see reports of AI in a few birds in commercial layer operations (where I assume the birds are caged and housed), I think I would immediately look for contaminated feed if they were my birds. It never crossed my mind they might be putting diseased chickens back into poultry feed.
Hi mixin,

Thank you for continuing the discussion.
Seems that the rest of the memebers rely only on the various internet world news texts without to be exposed to debating speculations.

Personaly, I'm not happy with the silence coming from the world estab. about the assesment of the actual dangers.

Extracting an personal opinion from the official public statements, and from the various health systems practical readiness, and their preparements for an pandemic (no matter avian's, or seasonal sourced)
- I can't see anything enaugh alarming, or dangerous -
like it is an non-existent thing.
___
"It never crossed my mind they might be putting diseased chickens back into poultry feed."

Unfortunately that exists.

I was aware many decades ago, of at the time "some folks" (reported by the media: the "cage under cage", trace system, etc.) commercial practice of mixing feathers, and other wasted parts, not only in a feed mixture, but even in sausages. After, that's all sterilized, and if the illness is "animal only", "nothing" will happen to the eater.
That was the meaning of "poultry meat mixed with poultry feed" - given than to other poultry as feed.
The "kosher" is obviously not treated that way.

That logic of "no harm" was prior the "mad cow" disease.
The treating of it's begining, from public TV assertions of the (that time) leading scientist in the source country, was a big mistake.

That time, the "folks" have the idea of giving to the cows not only grass, which are naturaly raised gratis throughout the world, but a feed mixed also with meat - a thing that cows naturaly must not eat.
The meat was from butchering wasted parts of sheeps, cows,...

But the "masterpiece of behaviour" was deciding that it will be no harm if it will be inserted an already infected meat from ships deceased of "scrapy" - that disease attack the brain of the ships, because, the "folks" assured, the genetic diference between the ship, and the cow spiece, is enaugh big, that the illness cannot spread from ship scrapied meat to the cows.

What a blow. - for the cows, and for us customers, not for the "folks".
After that kind of illnessed meet mixed feed was sustainable gived to the cows and that cow meat to non-aware people customers, after a bunch of years, we can all see the typical debalanced walk of this poor animals, later named "mad cow disease", was more later diagnosed in healthy (probably geneticaly preoriented) humans who eating such illnessed meat.

After, the public "mea culpa" of the few "top" country scientists, who at the time gived the "green light" to such an feed mixing (because stated harmless), can't stop things going on, unfortunately. The era of the "prions", which is not microbes, starts on.

But, some human's greed was bigger another time.
The vast quantity of illnessed cow feed remains non distributed, after the whole world start to put control measures to curb the disease.
Some holes remained, and the "mad cow" laden feed was some way distributed, creating new sources of infection.

Finaly, enaugh good law importing/exporting restrictions on live cows, cow meat (without interiors, brain, and so on - now relaxed partly), and controled cow feed, was setting up, and the illness was deminished.

That story of a few decades ago, can be easily reviewed from that time newspapers.

Bon apeti'!
 
Re: Risk Communication Dichotomy: BF a Threat or Not???

I remember well the mad cow problems and the controversy regarding mixing cattle parts into chicken feed and then adding chicken litter back into cattle feed.
I just never gave it any consideration what they are putting into chicken feed in other countries. I see where they are banning feed from parts of the country (India) even with claims their feed is all vegetable based. Here a vet claims chickens can't get AI from feed unless there is a poultry farm nearby. If it's all veggie based, then I'm confused why they would ban it?
http://beacononline.wordpress.com/2008/02/05/feed-ban-hurts-manufacturers/
 
Re: Risk Communication Dichotomy: BF a Threat or Not???

... I see where they are banning feed from parts of the country (India) even with claims their feed is all vegetable based. Here a vet claims chickens can't get AI from feed unless there is a poultry farm nearby. If it's all veggie based, then I'm confused why they would ban it?
Even if the feed is pure, it can be contaminated by infected feces or blood, inproper feed storidge biosafety measures from other infected poultry farm workers, contaminated feed transport vehicles, buyed feed than co-mixed with infected feed and distributed unknowingly from distributors, ..., etc.

The big poultry farms have very big concentrations, and live in little cages, or nearby - very stressful for the poultry immune system.

Read on about eggs:

Wednesday, February 13, 2008<SCRIPT language=javascript type=text/javascript>if(uid) {document.write('<a href="javascript: window.print();">');}else {document.write('<a href="/users/login.php?redirect=%2Fpoultrynews%2F14115%2Fcouncil-bans-battery-hen-eggs%2Fprint&loginrequired=true&por=true">');}</SCRIPT>
Council Bans Battery Hen Eggs

UK - Eggs from battery reared hens have been banned from schools and council buildings in a local council in the Liverpool area of the UK.



All eggs now being used by schools, Halton Council staff restaurants, and catering staff at the council's Stobart Stadium Halton, will be free range, according to reports in the Liverpool Daily Post.

The move follows an animal cruelty campaign by chefs Hugh Fearnley-Whittingstall and Jamie Oliver to ban battery chickens from the nation?s dinner plates.

A European-wide ban on battery eggs is due to come into force in 2012.

Halton councillor Phil Harris, executive board member for school meals is reported in the Liverpool Post as saying: ?This shows we are taking the treatment of chickens seriously in Halton.?


ThePoultrySite News Desk
</B></B></B></B></B></B></B>
 
Re: Risk Communication Dichotomy: BF a Threat or Not???

You have left out the poor in your scenario. Those who own tiny flocks do not have the means to enclose them. Neither do they have the money to disinfect every time someone goes into the chicken or duck yard. These people depend upon the birds ability to forage for some of their own food. In Europe, North America, or a few other places, you might be able to make a convincing argument for enclosing all poultry but, I doubt it.

It is extremely important to remember to read critically any news reports. Who made them? Is this person an expert or not? Does their message jive* with other experts? Could there be a financial or political reason for releasing the articles? You need to also be aware of any of your own preconceived notions. We all have filters in place. Some of us see pandemic under every stone, others think the disease has had every opportunity to become a h2h one by now and, as it hasn't become a pandemic, it won't ever become one. This is what the above article is saying. But the fallacy with that argument is we are all ignorant of what it takes to get to the tipping point. We have never watched a pandemic influenza move from no threat, to a global disaster before. A slow motion disaster isn't what most of us thought would happen.

Really, nothing has changed in bird flu-dom. We are still watching the virus change incrementally. We still wait with baited breath the first dual infections either in humans or pigs. And we still hear from politicians there is no threat, as a means to protect their poultry industry and quell panic in citizens. No one can put a time limit on when the virus would shift from b2h to h2h. It has always been an unknown. It is still unknown. The risk has gone up since fall of last year. The requirements for ideal temperature have dropped for some strains, and Tamiflu resistant strains are now beginning to circulate. The two have not yet met and married but, they could at any time.

Even if the lower temperature requirement never met the Tamiflu resistant strain we should still be alarmed. What happens next time we have thousands of birds die in a place like Africa or India? You saw the pictures-only some of the cullers were protected and none of the owners or bystanders were. We all read the stories of hungry people digging up the dead birds and eating them. If a family is so desperate for food they are willing to eat diseased and buried birds, do you think they have the ability to sterilize everything the bird touches prior to cooking? Of course they don't.

Tamiflu is the only thing keeping the disease at bay. Tamiflu blankets are effectively limiting the spread of the disease. If the virus cannot replicate and then infect another human, it is stopped in it's tracks. If however, Tamiflu ceases to be effective, then there is nothing to slow the replication. Neither is there anything to halt the disease spreading to other people. The only alternatives are antiviral cocktails and complete isolation of patients. Quarantine, or isolation, would be impossible as every computer driven model has shown. We can use a cocktail for a while but it too is going to be both more expensive and short-lived.

All we are doing is buying time not eradicating the cause of the disease. It would be impossible to go to the source and eliminate all carriers of the disease. It would be utterly impossible to require every citizen in the world to pen their birds. Chicken is a cheap and often only source of protein for a significant portion of the worlds people. We aren't seeing fewer chickens die. We aren't seeing flocks remain free of the disease in places that have been infected previously. We still see people get sick. We still see agencies cover up any illness with tests designed to fail. What we also see is the steady geographical spread and, poor nations completely unable to cope with monitoring the possibility of bird flu.

You have been given the gift of time, education and, a front row seat. The threat continues to grow and has not lessened one iota. At some time, chances are the H5N1 virus is going to occur in a mammal who is already infected with H1N1 or, it is going to infect a person who does not benefit from Tamiflu.


*Jive=mesh or, be the same as or, close to the same.

This is an excellent summary! Thank you.

J.
 
Re: Risk Communication Dichotomy: BF a Threat or Not???

Shannon,
I agree with a lot of what you say.

However, I'm personally not at the point where I have given up all hope of things turning around. I think there are many things being done to prevent the spread and a lot more things that need to be done.

Starting with the commercial producers. They have the money and must take every precaution to keep their flocks from being infected. They can look closer at the laying facilities to determine how those birds are getting infected. If they are enclosed, there can only be a couple of ways the infection is getting in.

I've spend a huge amount of time reviewing Niman's India map. If it's accurate (and I believe it to be very much so), then the little backyard poultry farms may not be the prime source of infection. Maybe the govt needs to look at the railroads, railroad stations and highways; see what might be coming from those sources. If you zoom in to almost 100% on his pins, you can see that a huge % of farms infected are within a mile or two of one or both of those methods of travel. Rarely is an outbreak sitting out in the middle of nowhere. Maybe it's just a coincidence but it should be worth consideration.

If those people who are testing wild birds are using ineffective tests to spout data that isn't true, then they need to have their feet held to the fire to perform tests that give true results. If wild birds are truly the reservoir, we need to know that.

It's obvious AI is not going away. While human infections and deaths dropped last year from what they were in 2006, it has increased in birds. I have no idea how much money India spent on the poultry cull (cullers, medical workers, reimbursement to the people, medicine, disinfectant, hospital rooms, lodging...) but I don't see how any country can afford to do that year after year. Seems to me it would be money better spent to prevent the spread and protect the birds in the first place.

Every step we take to slow it down or deter it or stop it, is one less chance it has to meet up and marry with the next virus. I'm staying cautiously optimistic.
 
Re: Risk Communication Dichotomy: BF a Threat or Not???

It's odd, I don't think anyone would call me a pessimist. I nearly always find some kind of silver lining. However, I am beginning to see what I think are fewer and fewer ways out of this predicament. I still think we are only slowing down the disease not stopping the eventual release.

Egg and meat producers are doing a lot to reduce infection in the chicken houses. Feed, unless it is contaminated by fecal droppings of infected birds or mammals, is an unlikely source. Contrary to popular belief, most chicken feed contains some animal or more usual fish protein. The ingredients are ground, pelleted, steam cooked, and completely dried. Bacteria and virus are killed during this process. More likely sources of infection are contaminated footwear and clothing of workers, small birds entering the chicken sheds and, infected replacement birds. The prion responsible for CJD is not a bacteria or a virus but something entirely different. You can't kill a prion.
 
Re: Risk Communication Dichotomy: BF a Threat or Not???

I don't think anyone called you pessimistic; I simply stated I'm not ready to take my front row seat and watch disaster strike.

Prions aren't the issue as much as the idea of contaminated feed is. If chicken products are going into chicken feed, then that could be a problem.

I have never seen how chicken feed is made but I would assume there is a large amount of loose product laying around. I can only speak for grinders at the local feed mills and they produce huge amounts of dust which covers everything in the mill.

If the article posted recently about bf being found in feathers is accurate, then I don't see how anyone could guarantee the finished product would be free of contamination.

Unless it's a political issue, why would they ban feed from certain manufacturers?
 
Re: Risk Communication Dichotomy: BF a Threat or Not???

No, the pessimistic comment was not in response to anything you said. It was simply a comment on how I felt about the situation in general.

I agree the feed should be tested if feathers are included in the mix (and they very well may be). The gel found in the feather shaft is a good place for a virus to survive over an extended period of time. The high temps in cooking should kill them however.
 
Re: Risk Communication Dichotomy: BF a Threat or Not???

Most commercial livestock producers feed with a mix that contains a percentage of poultry litter.

They stopped (banned) the practice for a short time when mad cow disease was the fear of the day, but allowed it again soon after.

I think the safety theory is that it's been composted, but from what I've read, all sorts of poultry matter ends up in the pile. Pretty much whatever can't be sold, gets composted and sold as feed for other livestock.

They turn waste matter into profit and eliminate the cost of disposal.
This may not be allowed in all countries, but I know it is in the US. I accidentally stumbled onto it a year or so ago and researched hoping it wasn't true.
 
Re: Risk Communication Dichotomy: BF a Threat or Not???

It never crossed my mind they might be putting diseased chickens back into poultry feed.

Diseased chickens might also end up in fish food, cattle feed, etc:

Here in New Zealand it has recently been revealed that two large salmon farms have been feeding their fish with chicken feathers: more precisely chicken feather meal provided by an Australian supplier. The farms involved say that the meal is a high quality safe source of protein. The feather meal is apparently heat treated to destroy any bacteria and claimed to be devoid of chicken faeces. Clearly the consumption of the feather protein is going to alter the chemistry of the salmon flesh. This practice may be unique to New Zealand. (Feeding of feather meal to cattle is permitted in the US.) One local expert here says that he has never heard of the practice in fish farming overseas. Unfortunately we all seem to have to rely on the press to ferret out information in our respective countries. Consumer groups here in New Zealand are concerned that bacteria, which may have developed resistance to antibiotics fed to chickens, could potentially infect farmed and ultimately wild fish. (Some farmed salmon do escape from their cages). Many also believe that it is wrong in principle to feed any chicken parts to fish. It is clear that this is the sort of farming practice which probably gave rise to mad cow disease in the UK, where cows were in reality turned into cannibals, eating feed which contained the remnants of other cattle and also sheep. Even today it seems that in the US it is still permissible to feed calves with cow's blood. Though the United States banned the use of cow parts in cattle feed in the 1990's, it still permits rendered matter from cows to be fed to pigs and chickens, and rendered pigs and chickens to be fed back to cows. Advantageous commercial practices are not easily changed.

A recent article in The New York Times explained - "Rendering yields fats, including tallows and greases, as well as meat and bone meal. The fats can be made into soaps and lubricants, and also added to some animal feeds. Most of the meat and bone meal is used in feed supplements for animals; 43 percent goes to poultry, 23 percent to pet food, 13 percent to swine, 10 percent to cattle and 11 percent to other uses, among them the production of feed for farmed fish." It is clear that the entire animal feed industry in the North America is highly integrated. That interdependence could provide opportunities for the spread of disease. The European Union does not permit any animal parts to be fed back as feed supplements to cattle.

TO READ THE ENTIRE ARTICLE:

http://www.yourhealthbase.com/farming.htm
 
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