tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Rev Panam Salud Publica
. 2020 Nov 20;44:e148.
doi: 10.26633/RPSP.2020.148. eCollection 2020.
The effect of early-stage public health policies in the transmission of COVID-19 for South American countries
Bryan Valcarcel[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Jose L Avilez[SUP] 3 [/SUP], J Smith Torres-Roman[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Julio A Poterico[SUP] 5 [/SUP], Janina Bazalar-Palacios[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Carlo La Vecchia[SUP] 6 [/SUP]
Affiliations
Abstract
in English, Spanish
Objectives: The analysis of transmission dynamics is crucial to determine whether mitigation or suppression measures reduce the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). This study sought to estimate the basic (R[SUB]0[/SUB] ) and time-varying (R[SUB]t[/SUB] ) reproduction number of COVID-19 and contrast the public health measures for ten South American countries.
Methods: Data was obtained from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. Country-specific R[SUB]0[/SUB] values during the first two weeks of the outbreak and R[SUB]t[/SUB] values after 90 days were estimated.
Results: Countries used a combination of isolation, physical distancing, quarantine, and community-wide containment measures to staunch the spread of COVID-19 at different points in time. R[SUB]0[/SUB] ranged from 1.52 (95% confidence interval: 1.13-1.99) in Venezuela to 3.83 (3.04-4.75) in Chile, whereas R[SUB]t[/SUB] after 90 days ranged from 0.71 (95% credible interval: 0.39-1.05) in Uruguay to 1.20 (1.19-1.20) in Brazil. Different R[SUB]0[/SUB] and R[SUB]t[/SUB] values may be related to the testing capacity of each country.
Conclusion: R[SUB]0[/SUB] in the early phase of the outbreak varied across the South American countries. The public health measures adopted in the initial period of the pandemic appear to have reduced R[SUB]t[/SUB] over time in each country, albeit to different levels.
Keywords: Severe acute respiratory syndrome; South America; basic reproduction number; betacoronavirus; communicable diseases, emerging; epidemiology; pandemics.
. 2020 Nov 20;44:e148.
doi: 10.26633/RPSP.2020.148. eCollection 2020.
The effect of early-stage public health policies in the transmission of COVID-19 for South American countries
Bryan Valcarcel[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Jose L Avilez[SUP] 3 [/SUP], J Smith Torres-Roman[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Julio A Poterico[SUP] 5 [/SUP], Janina Bazalar-Palacios[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Carlo La Vecchia[SUP] 6 [/SUP]
Affiliations
- PMID: 33245294
- PMCID: PMC7679045
- DOI: 10.26633/RPSP.2020.148
Abstract
in English, Spanish
Objectives: The analysis of transmission dynamics is crucial to determine whether mitigation or suppression measures reduce the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). This study sought to estimate the basic (R[SUB]0[/SUB] ) and time-varying (R[SUB]t[/SUB] ) reproduction number of COVID-19 and contrast the public health measures for ten South American countries.
Methods: Data was obtained from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. Country-specific R[SUB]0[/SUB] values during the first two weeks of the outbreak and R[SUB]t[/SUB] values after 90 days were estimated.
Results: Countries used a combination of isolation, physical distancing, quarantine, and community-wide containment measures to staunch the spread of COVID-19 at different points in time. R[SUB]0[/SUB] ranged from 1.52 (95% confidence interval: 1.13-1.99) in Venezuela to 3.83 (3.04-4.75) in Chile, whereas R[SUB]t[/SUB] after 90 days ranged from 0.71 (95% credible interval: 0.39-1.05) in Uruguay to 1.20 (1.19-1.20) in Brazil. Different R[SUB]0[/SUB] and R[SUB]t[/SUB] values may be related to the testing capacity of each country.
Conclusion: R[SUB]0[/SUB] in the early phase of the outbreak varied across the South American countries. The public health measures adopted in the initial period of the pandemic appear to have reduced R[SUB]t[/SUB] over time in each country, albeit to different levels.
Keywords: Severe acute respiratory syndrome; South America; basic reproduction number; betacoronavirus; communicable diseases, emerging; epidemiology; pandemics.