Results Phys . Second wave of COVID-19 in Italy: Preliminary estimation of reproduction number and cumulative case projections

[tetano]

Results Phys


. 2021 Sep;28:104604.
doi: 10.1016/j.rinp.2021.104604. Epub 2021 Jul 27.
Second wave of COVID-19 in Italy: Preliminary estimation of reproduction number and cumulative case projections


Nalini Chintalapudi[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Gopi Battineni[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Francesco Amenta[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP]



Affiliations

• PMID: 34336564
• PMCID: PMC8313897
• DOI: 10.1016/j.rinp.2021.104604

Abstract

The second wave of a novel coronavirus in Italy has caused 247,369 new cases and 1782 deaths only in October 2020. This significantly alarming infectious disease controlling board to impose again mitigation measures for controlling the epidemic growth. In this paper, we estimate the latest COVID-19 reproduction number (R_0) and project the epidemic size for the future 45 days. The R_0 value has calculated as 2.83 (95% CI: 1.5-4.2) and the cumulative incidences 100,015 (95% CI; 73,201-100,352), and daily incidences might be reached up to 15,012 (95% CI: 8234-16,197) respectively.

Keywords: Epidemic size; Italian population; Projections; Second wave COVID-19.