tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Results Phys
. 2022 Mar;34:105195.
doi: 10.1016/j.rinp.2022.105195. Epub 2022 Jan 15.
Forecast and evaluation of asymptomatic COVID-19 patients spreading in China
Xiaxia Kang[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Ye Hu[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Zeyu Liu[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Shahzad Sarwar[SUP] 3 [/SUP]
Affiliations
Abstract
In this paper, we propose a new SAIR model to depict the transmission dynamics of a novel coronavirus in China. We focus on the ability of asymptomatic COVID-19 patients to transmit and the potential impact of population movements on renewed outbreak transmission. Qualitative analysis of the model shows that when the basic productive number R0>1
, the system will stabilize towards a unique endemic equilibrium and pass through a transcritical bifurcation around its disease-free equilibrium. Furthermore, by constructing an appropriate Lyapunov function, we prove that the disease-free equilibrium and endemic equilibrium are globally asymptotically stable under appropriate parameter conditions. Finally, some important results have been verified by numerical simulations.
Keywords: 37B25; 37G10; 37N25; Asymptomatic patients; Disease COVID-19; Global stability; Population mobility; Transcritical bifurcation.
. 2022 Mar;34:105195.
doi: 10.1016/j.rinp.2022.105195. Epub 2022 Jan 15.
Forecast and evaluation of asymptomatic COVID-19 patients spreading in China
Xiaxia Kang[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Ye Hu[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Zeyu Liu[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Shahzad Sarwar[SUP] 3 [/SUP]
Affiliations
- PMID: 35070651
- PMCID: PMC8760652
- DOI: 10.1016/j.rinp.2022.105195
Abstract
In this paper, we propose a new SAIR model to depict the transmission dynamics of a novel coronavirus in China. We focus on the ability of asymptomatic COVID-19 patients to transmit and the potential impact of population movements on renewed outbreak transmission. Qualitative analysis of the model shows that when the basic productive number R0>1
, the system will stabilize towards a unique endemic equilibrium and pass through a transcritical bifurcation around its disease-free equilibrium. Furthermore, by constructing an appropriate Lyapunov function, we prove that the disease-free equilibrium and endemic equilibrium are globally asymptotically stable under appropriate parameter conditions. Finally, some important results have been verified by numerical simulations.
Keywords: 37B25; 37G10; 37N25; Asymptomatic patients; Disease COVID-19; Global stability; Population mobility; Transcritical bifurcation.