Respiratory Illness Low In The U.S., But Taiwan & Hong Kong Report Increased COVID Activity - Taiwan Surge Aug 4th

[Michael Coston]

Credit CDC

#19,246

Reassuringly, in their latest update (July 10th), the CDC is reporting very low respiratory illness in the United States right now.

What to know​

• As of July 10, 2026, the amount of acute respiratory illness causing people to seek health care is very low.

• RSV activity is very low in most areas of the country. Emergency department visits and hospitalizations for RSV are low but remain highest among infants and children younger than 4 years old.

• COVID-19 activity is low and stable nationally but is beginning to increase from low in a few areas of the country.

• Seasonal influenza activity is low.

• Parainfluenza (PIV), a respiratory virus that can cause illnesses such as croup, is elevated nationally. Rhinovirus/enterovirus (RV/EV), which often cause cold-like respiratory illness, are also elevated nationally but is going down. Whooping cough (pertussis) is still circulating.

But, as mentioned above, some states are showing signs of increasing COVID activity, as depicted in the following CDC map.




While we've yet to see a summer surge in COVID this year in the United States, the virus continues to circulate - and evolve - around the globe, and some places are reporting increased activity.


The most recent update from Hong Kong indicates COVID cases are rising:



Meanwhile, Taiwan's CDC issued the following (translated) statement today (July 14th).

As the COVID-19 pandemic continues to escalate, the public is urged to get vaccinated; those at risk of severe illness should seek medical attention immediately if they experience suspected symptoms.​

Release Date: 2026-07-14​

The Centers for Disease Control (CDC) stated today (July 14th) that the domestic COVID-19 epidemic continues to escalate. To protect their own health and the health of others, the CDC urges the public to take self-prevention measures and get vaccinated against COVID-19 this season. It is recommended to wear masks when entering and exiting medical care facilities and in crowded places where proper social distancing cannot be maintained or ventilation is poor. If fever or respiratory symptoms occur, it is recommended to stay home and avoid unnecessary outings. Individuals with severe risk factors should seek medical attention as soon as possible if they experience suspected symptoms. A doctor can assess and conduct a rapid test, or they can use a commercially available home rapid test. A doctor can also assess and prescribe antiviral drugs for those with severe risk factors who test positive for COVID-19, reducing the risk of serious complications or death after infection.​

The CDC stated that the domestic COVID-19 epidemic continues to rise. In the 27th week (July 5th-July 11th), there were 2,811 outpatient and emergency room visits for COVID-19, an increase of 34.4% compared to the previous week. Last week (July 7th-July 13th), there were 17 new local cases of severe COVID-19 complications, with no new local deaths. Since October 2025, a total of 136 local cases of severe COVID-19 complications have been reported, with 18 deaths. The majority of severe cases were among those aged 65 and above (72.1%) and those with a history of chronic diseases (83.8%). 94.9% of these cases were not vaccinated this season.​

Globally, the COVID-19 positivity rate has recently increased, showing an upward trend in all regions except the Eastern Mediterranean region. Neighboring countries/regions such as China, Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea, and Singapore are also experiencing rising cases. Currently, the predominant circulating strain globally is NB.1.8.1, followed by JN.1 and XFG.​

The Centers for Disease Control (CDC) indicates that as of July 12, 2026, approximately 1.732 million COVID-19 vaccinations have been administered this season. The vaccination rates among those aged 65 and above are 20.97% for the first dose and 0.51% for the second dose. International research has found that receiving the current season's COVID-19 vaccine provides additional protection on top of existing immunity.​

Vaccination with the current season's COVID-19 vaccine can reduce the risk of visiting the emergency room or emergency outpatient clinic due to COVID-19 by approximately 48%–50%, and reduce the risk of hospitalization by approximately 53%–55%. This demonstrates that COVID-19 vaccination effectively reduces the severity of the disease and the medical burden caused by COVID-19, and has a significant protective effect in preventing severe illness and hospitalization.​

The Taiwan Centers for Disease Control (CDC) urges that, as the majority of severe local COVID-19 cases in Taiwan are still among the elderly aged 65 and above and those with a history of chronic diseases, and most of them have not yet received the current season's COVID-19 vaccine, the CDC urges high-risk individuals, such as those aged 65 and above, who have not yet been vaccinated or have received their first dose at least 6 months ago, to get vaccinated as soon as possible to enhance their immune protection and reduce the risk of severe illness and hospitalization.​

(Continue . . .)​

Whether we get a significant summer surge in COVID remains to be seen, but the recent extended lull is no guarantee that futures outbreaks will not occur.

The CDC adds:

Season Outlook

CDC has observed a trend of declining COVID-19 hospitalizations nationally over time. However, it remains possible that there could be larger increases this summer, particularly if a variant that the immune system no longer recognizes becomes more common .​

Scenario modeling indicates that regions which did not experience a substantial level of COVID-19 activity during the most recent winter months (South and West) are expected to experience increases in COVID-19 activity in the summer months. Read more: 2026 COVID-19 Summer Outlook | CFA: Qualitative Assessments | CDC​

Which is why I've recently (May) gotten a COVID booster shot to hopefully boost my protection through the summer.

https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2026/07/respiratory-illness-low-in-us-but.html
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[sharon sanders]

WastewaterSCAN which is a Stanford/Emory project says the US is has been in a downward SARS-CoV-2 trend but at a medium concentration. It is interesting to look at but I have no idea how valid these wastewater analyses are. As of this posting their map shows "high" in Houston, Tampa, Miami, Las Vegas, San Francisco. link

In my experience in Orlando all respiratory diseases start to climb after July 4th gatherings and they do not reduce for a couple of months because schools re-open in August which continues the infectious cycle into early September.

Not medical advice but I stay boosted against COVID19. I get the Novavax product.

 

[Michael Coston]

Mainland China, Taiwan & Hong Kong All Reporting Summer Surge of COVID



Credit China CDC (translated by google)

#19,276

While we've enjoyed a prolonged lull in COVID activity here in the United States, the same can't be said for everyone. As we noted 3 weeks ago, both Hong Kong and Taiwan were reporting a summer uptick in COVID cases.

Reassuringly, in their latest update (July 31st), the CDC continues to report very low respiratory illness in the United States, but indicates that - unlike with Flu and RSV - COVID activity is slowly rising.





Where COVID is Increasing (CDC 7/31/26)

By contrast, this week China is reporting 20% COVID positivity (see chart at top of blog) among influenza-like illnesses seen at sentinel hospital outpatient and emergency departments, while last week Hong Kong reported:

`The latest surveillance data showed that local COVID-19 activity is currently in an active period and remains at a relatively high level.'​

Today Taiwan's CDC is reporting an additional surge in serious (and even fatal) COVID-19 cases, and is urging the public to get vaccinated and take extra precautions to avoid infection.

With the domestic COVID-19 epidemic rising and currently in its epidemic period, we urge those who have not yet been vaccinated to get vaccinated as soon as possible and to implement self-protective measures such as frequent handwashing and wearing masks.

Release Date: 2026-08-04​

The Centers for Disease Control (CDC) stated today (August 4th) that the domestic COVID-19 epidemic continues to rise and is in its epidemic period. The CDC urges the public not to let their guard down and to take good self-protection measures, including frequent handwashing; wearing masks when entering and exiting medical care facilities, taking public transportation, and going to crowded indoor places; if experiencing fever or respiratory symptoms, it is recommended to stay home as much as possible and avoid unnecessary outings, remembering to wear a mask when going out; those who have not yet been vaccinated should get vaccinated as soon as possible; and those with other risk factors for severe illness should seek medical attention immediately if they experience suspected symptoms, so that doctors can diagnose and treat them early and prescribe antiviral drugs, reducing the risk of severe complications or death after infection.

According to CDC monitoring data, the domestic COVID-19 epidemic is rising. In the 30th week (July 26th - August 1st), there were 18,990 outpatient and emergency room visits for COVID-19, an increase of 74.8% compared to the previous week (July 19th - July 25th); last week (July 28th - August 3rd), there were 62 new local severe cases and 3 local deaths.​

Since October 2025, there have been a total of 265 local cases of COVID-19 complicated by severe illness, of which 28 have died. The majority of severe cases are among those aged 65 and above (74.0%) and those with a history of chronic diseases (85.3%). 89.1% of these cases have not been vaccinated this season. In the past four weeks, the predominant variant strain in local cases is PQ.16.1.1.​

The global positivity rate is trending upward, with the US and Europe showing a slight increase from their lows, while Southeast Asia and the Western Pacific are at a plateau. The epidemic continues to rise in China, the US, and the UK; the epidemic is declining weekly in Hong Kong, Japan, and Thailand. Recently, the predominant global variant strains are NB.1.8.1, XFG, and JN.1.

The Centers for Disease Control (CDC) points out that as of August 2, 2026, approximately 1.772 million COVID-19 vaccinations have been administered this season, with vaccination rates among those aged 65 and above at 21.12% for the first dose and 0.78% for the second dose. Taiwan has approximately 165,000 doses of COVID-19 vaccine in stock. 80,550 doses were allocated to various counties and cities for vaccination on July 30th, and an additional 45,000 doses are expected to be distributed on August 6th based on demand.​

(Continue . . . )​

While all remains relatively quiet here, the CDC has produced a forecast of sorts; one which suggests that a late summer surge is possible, particularly in areas which saw lower COVID activity last winter.

National Outlook​

While the past several waves have shown a trend of declining hospitalizations nationally, it remains possible that there could be a larger increase this summer. There is regional variability in both the timing and magnitude of COVID-19 activity. We developed two COVID-19 modeling scenarios for the summer to demonstrate the range of possibilities for how COVID-19 activity could unfold nationally.

One scenario assumes that no variant with significant immune-escape properties emerges; the other is based on the possible emergence of a variant with moderate immune-escape properties that achieves predominance. The latter scenario is based on the characteristics that were observed in variants that emerged in the United States in the pastA.

While not specifically modeled in this scenario, we note that since its first detection in the U.S. in 2025, there have been detections of BA.3.2 in at least 29 U.S. states and Puerto RicoB. These modeling results show that in the absence of the emergence of a variant with moderate immune-escape properties, we do not expect an increase substantially larger than that experienced this past winter (Figure 2). If such a variant does emerge, there is substantial uncertainty (Figure 2), but modeling suggests increases would likely be within the range of what has been observed in the past 3 years (Figure 1).​

Whether COVID-19 will increase significantly in the short-run here in the U.S. is unknown - but given its continued evolution and proven affinity for infecting humans - it seems unlikely that we've seen the last of this troublesome virus.

https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2026/08/mainland-china-taiwan-hong-kong-all.html​