tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Res Econ
. 2022 Jun 25.
doi: 10.1016/j.rie.2022.06.001. Online ahead of print.
Non-pharmaceutical interventions and mortality in U.S. cities during the great influenza pandemic, 1918-1919
Robert J Barro[SUP] 1 [/SUP]
Affiliations
Abstract
A key issue for the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic is whether non-pharmaceutical public-health interventions (NPIs) retard death rates. Good information about causal effects from NPIs comes from flu-related excess deaths in large U.S. cities during the second wave of the Great Influenza Pandemic, September 1918-February 1919. The measured NPIs are in three categories: school closings, prohibitions of public gatherings, and quarantine/isolation. Although an increase in NPIs flattened the curve in the sense of reducing the ratio of peak to overall flu-related excess death rates, the estimated effect on overall deaths is small and statistically insignificant. These findings differ from those associated with COVID-19 in the sense that facemask mandates and usage seem to reduce COVID-related cases.
. 2022 Jun 25.
doi: 10.1016/j.rie.2022.06.001. Online ahead of print.
Non-pharmaceutical interventions and mortality in U.S. cities during the great influenza pandemic, 1918-1919
Robert J Barro[SUP] 1 [/SUP]
Affiliations
- PMID: 35784011
- PMCID: PMC9232401
- DOI: 10.1016/j.rie.2022.06.001
Abstract
A key issue for the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic is whether non-pharmaceutical public-health interventions (NPIs) retard death rates. Good information about causal effects from NPIs comes from flu-related excess deaths in large U.S. cities during the second wave of the Great Influenza Pandemic, September 1918-February 1919. The measured NPIs are in three categories: school closings, prohibitions of public gatherings, and quarantine/isolation. Although an increase in NPIs flattened the curve in the sense of reducing the ratio of peak to overall flu-related excess death rates, the estimated effect on overall deaths is small and statistically insignificant. These findings differ from those associated with COVID-19 in the sense that facemask mandates and usage seem to reduce COVID-related cases.
