Report from CDC / King county (WA) co-sponsored event on 11/4/2006
I participated in the following event in Seattle yesterday (11/4/2006):
The Public Engagement Project on Community Control Measures for Pandemic Influenza.
Website: www.keystone.org/Public_Policy/pandemic_control.html
Roger Bernier, senior epidemiologist from the CDC, was there and gave a presentation.
(See quotes from him below.)
He said the main goal of these meetings was "to establish public control measures to lesson the spread of the pandemic, via restricting movement, large public gatherings, access to business sites, school and social events."
The purpose of the meeting was to assess the willingness of 100+ members of the non healthcare general community to different proposals to attempt to slow down the rate of infection of H5N1 in the area (after a pandemic had begun.)
MAJOR QUOTES AND MY OBSERVATIONS I CAME AWAY WITH FROM THE MEETING:
(All quotes below from Roger Bernier, senior epidemiologist from the CDC)
A. The first wave "will last from 6 to 8 weeks. A second wave will occur three to four months after the first one."
B. The CDC is assuming that "approximately 90 million US citizans could fall ill."
C. The CDC still has operating assumptions that H5N1 will have a case fatality rate of 2% or less. ("From 200,000 to up to 2,000,000 deaths in the US could happen.")
C. The CDC assumes that it would take "within 30 days after a confirmed pandemic has begun in another country" for it to reach the lower 48 states, with communities across the US being affected "within several weeks after that."
D. The pandemic could cause "over 10 million US hospitalizations."
E. My observation: They have *not* factored in the possibility of H5N1 retaining its current CFR of 60+%
F. They are leaving open the probability that supply chain disruptions will affect "hospitals, stores, banks, loss of wages, and restraints on people's freedom of movement and freedom to gather." These disruptions will be caused both from actual illness, and measures taken to combat the spread of H5N1.
G. My observation: There was no mention at all that the public will be told by CDC to store up substantial supplies of emergency food / water / medicine. NONE. Reason: "We want to avoid panicking the public."
**** (MY OPINION: The resulting lack of preparedness of the vast majority of the general public, combined with the potential of a CFR 30 times higher than what the CDC is preparing for, will be huge factors to elicit public panic because the vast majority of it will enter the pandemic totally unprepared for the possibilities. It is exactly those people who will NOT stay sequestered at home--they will be out looking for food.) ****
H. "There will be no vaccine for at least 2 years once the pandemic has begun," and "the general public will not be given any." (Only healthcare workers, emergency personnel, government officials and military members would be given it--once available.) The 2 year lag was seen as the result of the time taken to ID the actual virus strain causing the pandemic, the time it will take to perfect an effective and safe vadcine, and limits to production / distribution capacities.
I. Tamiflu: Production limits to Tamiflu "will limit availability of it to US citizens for up to 25% of the population" and it will take "up to 2 years to produce that amount." It will be provided first to the persons identified in above paragraph.
J. "Effective face masks that prevent viral inhalation will not be available to the public."
K. "No detailed study has been done on influenza virus, or on H5N1, to determine their ability to spread infection via aerosol (suspended particles in the air)."
=========
The participants were asked if they would be willing to agree to any or all of the following if local / national government agencies promoted the options below.
(The official results of how participants responded to the different options below will be posted at:
http://www.keystone.org/Public_Policy/pandemic_control.html )
** Encourage sick persons to stay at home "for 7 days." "Patients are infective for up to seven days, but then infectivity drops off even of patient is still sick." (Direct quote from from Roger Bernier, senior epidemiologist from the CDC.)
** Care for your own sick family members (hospitals will not be available)
** Stay at home for at least 7 days of anyone in your house has BF.
** Close schools and day care centers for up to 12 weeks
** Work from home
** Prevent children and teenagers from congregating in large groups outside of school
** Have employers change work schedules and locations to reduce the number of workers being in close proximity
** Cancel large public gatherings (including churches)
MY CONCLUDING OBSERVATONS:
** How will the general public be trained to NOT take a loved one to the hospital who is deathly ill with BF?
** How will the general public cope with watching their loved ones die at home?
** If people have run out of sick leave at work--but they must stay home because of family illnesses--how do they pay bills?
** "It is not known if banks will foreclose on homeowners for non payment of home mortgages, or if utilities will be shut off from non payment."
** Severe weather (heat / cold) will make it harder to stay home if utilities are shut off
** If people run out of food--they will not stay home
** Transporting of goods via cargo ships / trucking fleets will cease (workers will not want to travel long distances from home.)
** If too many utility workers stay home, utilities might be shut down--which may force many people to go outdoors looking for water.
** How are "essential employees" (police, firemen, healthcare and utility workers) going to get to work if there is no gasoline for their vehicles?
** Will banks face cash shortage? How will they operate with lack of electricity?
** If banks are shut--the general economy will grind to a halt.
~~gregory benesch
I participated in the following event in Seattle yesterday (11/4/2006):
The Public Engagement Project on Community Control Measures for Pandemic Influenza.
Website: www.keystone.org/Public_Policy/pandemic_control.html
Roger Bernier, senior epidemiologist from the CDC, was there and gave a presentation.
(See quotes from him below.)
He said the main goal of these meetings was "to establish public control measures to lesson the spread of the pandemic, via restricting movement, large public gatherings, access to business sites, school and social events."
The purpose of the meeting was to assess the willingness of 100+ members of the non healthcare general community to different proposals to attempt to slow down the rate of infection of H5N1 in the area (after a pandemic had begun.)
MAJOR QUOTES AND MY OBSERVATIONS I CAME AWAY WITH FROM THE MEETING:
(All quotes below from Roger Bernier, senior epidemiologist from the CDC)
A. The first wave "will last from 6 to 8 weeks. A second wave will occur three to four months after the first one."
B. The CDC is assuming that "approximately 90 million US citizans could fall ill."
C. The CDC still has operating assumptions that H5N1 will have a case fatality rate of 2% or less. ("From 200,000 to up to 2,000,000 deaths in the US could happen.")
C. The CDC assumes that it would take "within 30 days after a confirmed pandemic has begun in another country" for it to reach the lower 48 states, with communities across the US being affected "within several weeks after that."
D. The pandemic could cause "over 10 million US hospitalizations."
E. My observation: They have *not* factored in the possibility of H5N1 retaining its current CFR of 60+%
F. They are leaving open the probability that supply chain disruptions will affect "hospitals, stores, banks, loss of wages, and restraints on people's freedom of movement and freedom to gather." These disruptions will be caused both from actual illness, and measures taken to combat the spread of H5N1.
G. My observation: There was no mention at all that the public will be told by CDC to store up substantial supplies of emergency food / water / medicine. NONE. Reason: "We want to avoid panicking the public."
**** (MY OPINION: The resulting lack of preparedness of the vast majority of the general public, combined with the potential of a CFR 30 times higher than what the CDC is preparing for, will be huge factors to elicit public panic because the vast majority of it will enter the pandemic totally unprepared for the possibilities. It is exactly those people who will NOT stay sequestered at home--they will be out looking for food.) ****
H. "There will be no vaccine for at least 2 years once the pandemic has begun," and "the general public will not be given any." (Only healthcare workers, emergency personnel, government officials and military members would be given it--once available.) The 2 year lag was seen as the result of the time taken to ID the actual virus strain causing the pandemic, the time it will take to perfect an effective and safe vadcine, and limits to production / distribution capacities.
I. Tamiflu: Production limits to Tamiflu "will limit availability of it to US citizens for up to 25% of the population" and it will take "up to 2 years to produce that amount." It will be provided first to the persons identified in above paragraph.
J. "Effective face masks that prevent viral inhalation will not be available to the public."
K. "No detailed study has been done on influenza virus, or on H5N1, to determine their ability to spread infection via aerosol (suspended particles in the air)."
=========
The participants were asked if they would be willing to agree to any or all of the following if local / national government agencies promoted the options below.
(The official results of how participants responded to the different options below will be posted at:
http://www.keystone.org/Public_Policy/pandemic_control.html )
** Encourage sick persons to stay at home "for 7 days." "Patients are infective for up to seven days, but then infectivity drops off even of patient is still sick." (Direct quote from from Roger Bernier, senior epidemiologist from the CDC.)
** Care for your own sick family members (hospitals will not be available)
** Stay at home for at least 7 days of anyone in your house has BF.
** Close schools and day care centers for up to 12 weeks
** Work from home
** Prevent children and teenagers from congregating in large groups outside of school
** Have employers change work schedules and locations to reduce the number of workers being in close proximity
** Cancel large public gatherings (including churches)
MY CONCLUDING OBSERVATONS:
** How will the general public be trained to NOT take a loved one to the hospital who is deathly ill with BF?
** How will the general public cope with watching their loved ones die at home?
** If people have run out of sick leave at work--but they must stay home because of family illnesses--how do they pay bills?
** "It is not known if banks will foreclose on homeowners for non payment of home mortgages, or if utilities will be shut off from non payment."
** Severe weather (heat / cold) will make it harder to stay home if utilities are shut off
** If people run out of food--they will not stay home
** Transporting of goods via cargo ships / trucking fleets will cease (workers will not want to travel long distances from home.)
** If too many utility workers stay home, utilities might be shut down--which may force many people to go outdoors looking for water.
** How are "essential employees" (police, firemen, healthcare and utility workers) going to get to work if there is no gasoline for their vehicles?
** Will banks face cash shortage? How will they operate with lack of electricity?
** If banks are shut--the general economy will grind to a halt.
~~gregory benesch
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