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Remnants of Lee - Heavy rains and flooding expected from the Mid-Atlantic states into parts of Northeast

Pathfinder

Pathfinder

Editor, Senior Moderator
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office


New Orleans/Baton Rouge

Tropical Wave



A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GULF LATE
THIS WEEK. THERE ARE STILL MANY UNCERTAINTIES IN LOCATION...
STRENGTH...AND WHETHER THIS WILL BE A TRUE TROPICAL SYSTEM.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA
BY MID WEEK AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION...MORE SO
ALONG COASTAL LOUISIANA PARISHES. IN ADDITION...COASTAL WATER WINDS
WILL INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BY THURSDAY SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AND AT THE LEAST A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED BY FRIDAY FOR THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL RESPOND
WITH A WELL DEVELOPED SWELL OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST BY FRIDAY. THIS
WILL COMBINE WITH WAVES TO CREATE SEAS OF 6 TO AS HIGH AS 10 FEET

BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
</PRE>
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/graphicast.php?site=lix&gc=5



</PRE>
 
Re: Tropical wave to impact the Western Gulf of Mexico

Re: Tropical wave to impact the Western Gulf of Mexico

Atlantic Graphical TWO Area 1 closeup



<HR align=left width="100%" noShade><!-- Content here -->


1. A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE ADJACENT LAND AREAS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CENTRAL OR WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN A FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.


</PRE><!-- Set from archive.pl for LANA crossing 140W --><!-- END OF CONTENT -->http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/gtwo_atl_sub.shtml?area1#contents
 
Re: Tropical wave to impact the Western Gulf of Mexico

Re: Tropical wave to impact the Western Gulf of Mexico

Gulf Sea Surface Temperatures

Sea_Surface_Temps-640x360.jpg


More maps here:
http://www.wwltv.com/weather/hurricane/maps?radar=94692959&img=2&c=y
 
Re: Tropical wave to impact the Western Gulf of Mexico

Re: Tropical wave to impact the Western Gulf of Mexico

Oil firms start U.S. Gulf evacuations due to weather

By Kristen Hays and Erwin Seba

HOUSTON | Wed Aug 31, 2011 7:10pm EDT

HOUSTON (Reuters) - BP Plc on Wednesday became the first major oil producer to say it was evacuating some workers from Gulf of Mexico oil and gas platforms because of a tropical disturbance that could become a named storm this week.

Later on Wednesday, Anadarko Petroleum Corp joined BP saying it has evacuated non-essential workers from three platforms in the Gulf.

Royal Dutch Shell also was preparing to evacuate some workers and expected to decide whether to move forward with that during the day, spokeswoman Kelly op de Weegh said.

More...
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011...20110831?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews&rpc=71
 
Re: Tropical wave to impact the Western Gulf of Mexico

Re: Tropical wave to impact the Western Gulf of Mexico

Atlantic Graphical TWO Area 1 closeup


</PRE>

1. A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...BUT ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE ON THURSDAY...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD. INTERESTS ALONG THE ENTIRE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE.


</PRE><!-- Set from archive.pl for LANA crossing 140W --><!-- END OF CONTENT -->http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/gtwo_atl_sub.shtml?area1#contents
 
Re: Tropical wave to impact the Western Gulf of Mexico

Re: Tropical wave to impact the Western Gulf of Mexico

New Orleans
Bob Breck, Chief Meteorologist FOX 8


Wednesday, August 31, 2011

Lee Likely by Weekend...

Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to fly into the tropical disturbance over the south central Gulf on Thursday so we should finally know if we indeed have a center of circulation. As I mentioned last night, it is difficult to predict where "it" is going when you don't know where "it" is. I have never seen the spread/loops on the various computer models which tells me there is great uncertainty regarding whatever forms. All bring something towards the LA/MS coast and slow it down or stall it for 2-3 days. NWS now has upped their rainfall extimate to 8-10"+ for the South Shore by Monday. I should point out that the real heavy rain events in the past have NEVER been predicted ahead of time. That 8-10" could easily top 20"+ creating widespread flooding and limiting travel around the metro area. Slow moving tropical storms scare me, not for their winds, but for the sometimes incredible amounts of rain they generate (Allison 30-40"+). Right now there is enough wind shear over the northern Gulf to prevent any major system from forming, but that could change by Sunday and Monday. Stay tuned and be prepared for a real soggy 4-5 days.

...
http://bobbreck.blogspot.com/
 
Re: Tropical wave to impact the Western Gulf of Mexico

Re: Tropical wave to impact the Western Gulf of Mexico

Flash Flood Watch for Orleans, LA
Top of page
is_single_pixel_gif.gif
Table of contents for Orleans, LA


[SIZE=-1]WGUS64 KLIX 010903FFALIX[/SIZE]
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTEDFLOOD WATCHNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA403 AM CDT THU SEP 1 2011
[SIZE=+1]A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE WEEKEND[/SIZE]
.AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE MIDDLE GULF OF MEXICOWAS INTERACTING WITH A SURFACE TROPICAL WAVE TO PRODUCE A LARGEAREA OF DEVELOPING TROPICAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THISCOMPLEX SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD TO NEAR THE LOUISIANACOAST THEN MEANDER AROUND THE NORTH GULF THIS WEEKEND. THISPATTERN WILL RESULT IN EFFICIENT RAINS THAT PRODUCE FLASH FLOODINGFOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ..

403 AM CDT THU SEP 1 2011
[SIZE=+1]FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING[/SIZE]
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...ASSUMPTION...LOWER JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST. BERNARD...LOWER TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...ST. CHARLES...ST. JAMES...ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER LAFOURCHE...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST. BERNARD AND UPPER TERREBONNE. IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...HANCOCK...HARRISON AND JACKSON. * THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING* EFFICIENT AND TORRENTIAL TROPICAL RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO ONSET TODAY AND CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE MID-GULF REGION THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. RAIN RATES OF 1 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR CAN RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING AND GENERAL PONDING OF WATER IN STREETS. MODEL ESTIMATES AND THE NOAA HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER INDICATES AN AVERAGE OF 10 INCHES MAY OCCUR THIS WEEKEND ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS 15 TO 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE...DEPENDING ON FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS OF THE GULF SYSTEM INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...RESIDENTS AND BUSINESSES IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD ENSURE THAT DRAINAGE DITCHES...CATCH BASINS...AND CULVERTS ARE CLEARED OFDEBRIS BEFORE RAINS ONSET TO ALLOW FOR ADEQUATE DRAINAGE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. && 24/RR


</PRE>...
http://weather.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/iwszone?Sites=:laz062#t1
 
Re: Tropical wave to impact the Western Gulf of Mexico

Re: Tropical wave to impact the Western Gulf of Mexico

City Of New Orleans

9/1/2011


medal.ashx

<!-- text-box -->MAYOR LANDRIEU UPDATES CITIZENS ON TROPICAL WEATHER SYSTEM PREPAREDNESS

FAQ about Tropical Weather

NEW ORLEANS, LA?Today, Mayor Mitch Landrieu joined City officials as they outlined the City?s preparedness plans for this weekend?s potential heavy rain and wind event caused by a tropical weather system.

"Today, we are preparing for a significant rain and wind event that could last into early next week," said Mayor Landrieu. "It is unpredictable and slow-moving. The City and our partner agencies are taking all necessary steps to prepare. I am asking all of our residents to get prepared and heed our warnings."


In advance of the weather, the City is taking the following precautions:
  • Sewerage and Water Board pumps are 100% operational, and backup generators at the Sewerage and Water Board Power Plant are active.
  • The Department of Public Works has two contractors on standby for road repair and debris removal.
  • The Departments of Parks and Parkways and Sanitation have equipment staged and ready to clear roadways for fallen trees or debris.
  • Capital construction projects will be shut down if sustained winds reach 25 miles per hour.
  • The City is also coordinating with tourism leaders to ensure the safety of visitors.
In advance of the weather, the City is asking residents to take the following precautions:
  • Clean or clear catch basins near your home.
  • Prepare emergency supply kits to ensure your personal safety and well-being in the event of loss of power or heavy street flooding.
  • Secure debris and loose furniture on your property.
Additionally, the City is allowing residents to secure their vehicles on the neutral ground throughout the weekend.

EMERGENCY SUPPLY KITS


According to Emergency Preparedness officials, families should build an emergency supply kit at home that includes:
  • Water (one gallon per person, per day ? three day supply for evacuation, two-week supply for home)
  • Non-perishable food (three-day supply for evacuation and a two-week supply for home)
  • Can opener for food
  • Radio (battery-powered or hand crank)
  • Flashlights
  • First aid kit (medications and medical supplies, seven-day supply)
  • Whistle
  • Dust masks
  • Sanitation items
  • Personal hygiene items
  • Wrench or pliers to turn off utilities
  • Maps
  • Important family documents
EMAIL AND TEXT ALERTS

Citizens are encouraged to sign up for email and text message alerts by going to www.nolaready.info or sending a text message to ?NOLA4U?. This service allows city officials to contact citizens during emergencies, which includes life-threatening weather events, evacuation or shelter in place information, and other pertinent emergency information.

http://www.nola.gov/PRESS/City-Of-N...IZENS-ON-TROPICAL-WEATHER-SYSTEM-PREPAREDNESS
 
Tropical depression forms over the central Gulf of Mexico - Tropical storm warning issued

Tropical depression forms over the central Gulf of Mexico - Tropical storm warning issued

Tropical Depression THIRTEEN Public Advisory

000
WTNT33 KNHC 012341
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132011
700 PM CDT THU SEP 01 2011

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 91.4W
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO FROM PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI WESTWARD TO
SABINE PASS TEXAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI WESTWARD TO SABINE PASS TEXAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
THIRTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.4 WEST.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H.
A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST
OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND
THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON FRIDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1
TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IN AREAS
OF ONSHORE FLOW.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA

--------------------------------------------------------------------

Tropical Depression THIRTEEN Forecast Discussion

000
WTNT43 KNHC 012342
TCDAT3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132011
700 PM CDT THU SEP 01 2011

SATELLITE...SURFACE...AND NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE
THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO HAS
ACQUIRED A CLOSED CIRCULATION THAT IS DEFINED ENOUGH TO BE
CONSIDERED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. HOWEVER...THE CENTRAL REGION
STILL CONSISTS OF A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT WINDS. THE AIRCRAFT DATA
AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS WIND SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE...AN UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER...SINCE THE CIRCULATION IS
LARGE ONLY GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS REASONING AND IS CLOSE TO THE
SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE.

SINCE THE DEPRESSION IS IN ITS FORMATIVE STAGE THE INITIAL MOTION
IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. IN FACT...THE CENTER COULD REFORM WITHIN THE
LARGE CIRCULATION DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. THE DEPRESSION IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SLIDE EASTWARD AND
WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS...LEAVING THE CYCLONE IN WEAK
STEERING FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST. THE NHC TRACK IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE
GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT 5
DAYS PROLONGING THE PERIOD OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0000Z 26.6N 91.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 27.5N 92.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 28.2N 92.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 28.7N 92.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 29.3N 92.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 04/1800Z 30.1N 92.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
96H 05/1800Z 31.1N 91.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 06/1800Z 32.0N 90.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/012342.shtml?
 
Re: Tropical depression forms over the central Gulf of Mexico - Tropical storm warning issued

Re: Tropical depression forms over the central Gulf of Mexico - Tropical storm warning issued

Tropical depression forms in Gulf; coastal states brace for storm

<!--endclickprintinclude--><!--startclickprintexclude-->By the CNN Wire Staff<SCRIPT type=text/javascript>cnnAuthor = "By the CNN Wire Staff";</SCRIPT>
<SCRIPT type=text/javascript>if(location.hostname.indexOf( 'edition.' ) > -1) {document.write('September 2, 2011 -- Updated 0147 GMT (0947 HKT)');} else {document.write('September 1, 2011 9:47 p.m. EDT');}</SCRIPT>September 1, 2011 9:47 p.m. EDTSeptember 1, 2011 9:47 p.m. EDT


(CNN) -- Oil companies evacuated workers from offshore wells, New Orleans prepared for possible flooding and Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal declared a state of emergency as a tropical depression formed Thursday in the Gulf of Mexico.
...
New Orleans -- much of which sits below sea level -- is likely to see 8 to 10 inches of rain in the next few days, Mayor Mitch Landrieu told reporters.

"What we do know is there's high wind, there is a lot of rain and it's going slow," Landrieu said. "That's not a good prescription for the city of New Orleans should it come this way."

It was six years ago this week that Hurricane Katrina slammed into the Gulf Coast, devastating coastal Louisiana and Mississippi and inundating much of New Orleans.

Full text:
http://www.cnn.com/2011/US/09/01/tropical.weather.gulf/
 
Re: Tropical depression forms over the central Gulf of Mexico - Tropical storm warning issued

Re: Tropical depression forms over the central Gulf of Mexico - Tropical storm warning issued

Tropical Depression THIRTEEN Public Advisory

000
WTNT33 KNHC 021456
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132011
1000 AM CDT FRI SEP 02 2011

...DEPRESSION NEARLY STATIONARY SOUTH OF THE LOUISIANA COAST...
RAINBANDS MOVING ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.3N 91.5W
ABOUT 190 MI...310 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SE OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI WESTWARD TO SABINE PASS TEXAS...INCLUDING
THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE MAUREPAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA ...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
THIRTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.5 WEST.
THE DEPRESSION IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H.
A CONTINUED SLOW AND POSSIBLY ERRATIC MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
OR NORTH IS EXPECTED TODAY AND SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...
THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA DURING THE WEEKEND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. WINDS
OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE BEING REPORTED ON OIL RIGS NORTH AND
EAST OF THE CENTER AT ELEVATIONS OF A FEW HUNDRED FEET.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON REPORTS FROM NEARBY
OIL RIGS AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 1005
MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO
CAUSE EXTENSIVE FLOODING.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2
TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IN AREAS
OF ONSHORE FLOW.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA THIS EVENING...MAKING OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TONIGHT.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/021456.shtml
 
Depression strengtens into tropical storm Lee south of the Louisiana coast

Depression strengtens into tropical storm Lee south of the Louisiana coast

Tropical Storm LEE Public Advisory

000
WTNT33 KNHC 021731
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LEE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132011
100 PM CDT FRI SEP 02 2011

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM LEE SOUTH OF THE
LOUISIANA COAST...HEAVY RAINBANDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS MUCH
OF SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.4N 91.5W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SE OF CAMERON LOUISIANA
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI WESTWARD TO SABINE PASS TEXAS...INCLUDING
THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE MAUREPAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LEE WAS
LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND
OBSERVATIONS FROM OIL RIGS TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 27.4 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 91.5 WEST. LEE IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 2
MPH...4 KM/H. A CONTINUED SLOW AND POSSIBLY ERRATIC MOTION TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH IS EXPECTED TODAY AND SATURDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE COAST OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA DURING THE WEEKEND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 60 MPH ARE BEING REPORTED ON OIL
RIGS NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER AT ELEVATIONS OF A FEW HUNDRED
FEET ABOVE THE OCEAN SURFACE.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325
KM...MAINLY NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON REPORTS FROM NEARBY
OIL RIGS AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 1003
MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TROPICAL STORM LEE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO
CAUSE EXTENSIVE FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2
TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IN AREAS
OF ONSHORE FLOW.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING...MAKING
OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TONIGHT.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/021731.shtml
 
Re: Depression strengtens into tropical storm Lee south of the Louisiana coast

Re: Depression strengtens into tropical storm Lee south of the Louisiana coast

Mississippi

9.2.11 MEMA URGES RESIDENTS TO PREPARE FOR TROPICAL WEATHER
The Mississippi Emergency Management Agency is urging residents throughout the state to prepare for the effects of tropical weather this holiday weekend. The system in the Gulf of Mexico could bring more than a foot of rain in some areas. Click here for more.

9.2.11 GOVERNOR BARBOUR DECLARES A STATE OF EMERGENCY DUE TO TROPICAL WEATHER
Governor Haley Barbour declared a State of Emergency for seven Mississippi counties and other areas which are expected to be impacted by tropical weather this weekend. Click here for more. Click here for the State of Emergency.

http://www.msema.org/
 
Re: Depression strengtens into tropical storm Lee south of the Louisiana coast

Re: Depression strengtens into tropical storm Lee south of the Louisiana coast

City Of New Orleans

9/2/2011
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

medal.ashx

<!-- text-box -->MAYOR LANDRIEU DECLARES STATE OF EMERGENCY AS CITY PREPARES FOR TROPICAL STORM LEE


Streets in Greater New Orleans Area Prone To Flooding



FAQ about Tropical Storm


NEW ORLEANS, LA?Today, Mayor Mitch Landrieu joined City officials as they outlined the City?s preparedness plans for this weekend?s heavy rain and wind event caused by Tropical Storm Lee. Mayor Landrieu declared a state of emergency for the City earlier today.

"We are continuing to prepare for a significant rain and wind event that could last into early next week," said Mayor Landrieu. "Tropical Storm Lee is unpredictable and slow-moving. The City and our partner agencies are taking all necessary steps to get ready. Now is not the time to panic; it?s a time to prepare."

The City is taking the following precautions:

? Emergency Operations Center is at Activation Level 2, with 24/7 operations at this time.

? All 24 Sewerage and Water Board pumps are 100% operational, and backup generators at the Sewerage and Water Board Power Plant are active.

? In conjunction with the US Army Corps of Engineers, the City and Sewerage and Water Board are monitoring water levels in canals and the Lake. As a result of water reaching the operational trigger of 2.5 ft. and rising at the London Ave. Canal, Col. Ed Fleming, New Orleans District commander of the US Army Corps of Engineers, ordered the canal gates closed today at 4:30 p.m. The gates took about 50 minutes to close and, once closed, the Corps began pumping water from the canal into Lake Pontchartrain to maintain the safe water elevation of 5 ft.

? The City has added enhanced Mississippi River monitoring with the Coast Guard and DEQ.

? 3-1-1 will operate 24/7 for residents to get updated information and report problems.

? The Department of Public Works has two contractors on standby for road repair and debris removal.

? The Departments of Parks and Parkways and Sanitation have equipment staged and ready to clear roadways for fallen trees or debris.

? Sanitation contractors will continue regular trash pickup unless streets have standing water. Once trash is picked up, residents should secure trash cans.

? Capital construction projects have ceased at this time.

? New Orleans public libraries have been closed as of 1:00 p.m. today. Libraries will return to normal operation on Tuesday, September 6.

? All NORDC activities for this weekend are cancelled at this time.

? The Louis Armstrong Airport is operational at this time, but the City is in constant communication with airlines.

? RTA is operating as normal at this time.

? The City is communicating with hospitals and nursing homes. Homeless shelters have added extra bed capacity.

? The City is also coordinating wit h tourism leaders to ensure the safety of visitors.

The City is allowing residents to secure their vehicles on the neutral ground throughout the weekend.

Additionally, the NOPD will ticket vehicles that drive faster than 5 miles per hour down streets with standing water.

In advance of the weather, the City is asking residents to take the following precautions:

? Clean or clear catch basins near your home.

? Prepare emergency supply kits to ensure your personal safety and well-being in the event of loss of power or heavy street flooding.

? Secure debris and loose furniture on your property.

HOMELESS SHELTERS

The following shelters will be available for homeless persons through the morning of Tuesday, September 6:

? Covenant House: 611 N. Rampart Street, (504) 584-1111. Males and females 16-21 years old, or any females with children are welcome.

? New Orleans Mission: 1130 Oretha Castle Haley Boulevard, (504) 270-4967. Males and females are welcome. The Mission is closed on Monday.

? Ozanam Inn: 843 Camp Street, (504) 523-1184. Males of any age are welcome.

? Salvation Army: 4530 South Claiborne Avenue, (504) 896-7315. Males of any age are welcome.

EMERGENCY SUPPLY KITS

According to Emergency Preparedness officials, families should build an emergency supply kit at home that includes:

? Water (one gallon per person, per day ? three day supply for evacuation, two-week supply for home)
? Non-perishable food (three-day supply for evacuation and a two-week supply for home)
? Can opener for food
? Radio (battery-powered or hand crank)
? Flashlights
? First aid kit (medications and medical supplies, seven-day supply)
? Whistle
? Dust masks
? Sanitation items
? Personal hygiene items
? Wrench or pliers to turn off utilities
? Maps
? Important family documents

EMAIL AND TEXT ALERTS
Citizens are encouraged to sign up for email and text message alerts by going to www.nolaready.infoor sending a text message to ?NOLA4U?. This service allows City officials to contact citizens during emergencies, which includes life-threatening weather events, evacuation or shelter in place information, and other pertinent emergency information.

http://www.nola.gov/PRESS/City-Of-N...GENCY-AS-CITY-PREPARES-FOR-TROPICAL-STORM-LEE
 
Re: Lee strengthening - Heavy rains occuring over southern Louisiana with tropical storm conditions along the coast

Re: Lee strengthening - Heavy rains occuring over southern Louisiana with tropical storm conditions along the coast

Tropical Storm LEE Public Advisory

ZCZC MIATCPAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LEE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132011
700 AM CDT SAT SEP 03 2011

...LEE STRENGTHENING...HEAVY RAINS OCCURRING OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA
WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS CONTINUING ALONG THE COAST...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.4N 92.0W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM SSE OF INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM S OF NEW IBERIA LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER WESTWARD TO SABINE PASS TEXAS...INCLUDING
THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE MAUREPAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER EASTWARD TO DESTIN FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LEE WAS
LOCATED BY NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADARS NEAR LATITUDE 29.4 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 92.0 WEST. LEE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR
7 MPH...11 KM/H. A SLOW AND POSSIBLY ERRATIC MOTION TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST OR NORTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF LEE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE LOUISIANA COAST
THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA ON SUNDAY.

NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADARS INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME
SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING BEFORE THE CENTER
MOVES WELL INLAND OVER LOUISIANA THIS AFTERNOON.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM
MAINLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. RECENTLY AN OIL
RIG JUST SOUTH OF GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF
58 MPH AND A GUST TO 67 MPH AT 200 FEET ELEVATION.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON OBSERVATIONS FROM
OIL RIGS IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TROPICAL STORM LEE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS ARE
EXPECTED TO CAUSE EXTENSIVE FLOODING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST...AND BY AS
MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND
ALABAMA COASTS INCLUDING MOBILE BAY. SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES FOR MORE DETAILS. A STORM
SURGE OF NEAR 4 FEET WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT SHELL BEACH
LOUISIANA...AND A SURGE HEIGHT OF 2.4 FEET WAS REPORTED AT GRAND
ISLE LOUISIANA.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA TODAY.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN
ALABAMA...AND THE FAR WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/DDHHMM.shtml
 
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