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Remnant of Matthew produces torrential rain over Mexico and Central America - Landslide buries hundreds of homes in Mexico

Pathfinder

Pathfinder

Editor, Senior Moderator
<!-- Content here -->
1. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEAIS PRODUCING A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS ANDTHUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME ATROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARDAT 15 MPH TOWARD THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THERE IS A HIGHCHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONEDURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER THENETHERLANDS ANTILLES...AND THE NORTHERN COASTS OF WESTERN VENEZUELAAND COLOMBIA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TOPRODUCE HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA IN A COUPLEDAYS.


</PRE>

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/gtwo_atl_sub.shtml?area1#contents


</PRE>
 
Last edited:
Re: An area of low pressure over the south-central Caribbean sea has the potential to become a tropical depression

Re: An area of low pressure over the south-central Caribbean sea has the potential to become a tropical depression

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Re: An area of low pressure over the south-central Caribbean sea has the potential to become a tropical depression

Re: An area of low pressure over the south-central Caribbean sea has the potential to become a tropical depression

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE AND BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...
AND THIS DISTURBANCE COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE UNIT AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM
LATER THIS MORNING. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS DISTURBANCE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA IN A COUPLE
OF DAYS.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/gtwo_atl_sub.shtml?area1#contents
 
New depression forms over south-central Caribbean sea - Watches and Warnings issued for portions of Central America

New depression forms over south-central Caribbean sea - Watches and Warnings issued for portions of Central America

000
WTNT35 KNHC 231749
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152010
200 PM EDT THU SEP 23 2010

...NEW DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...
...WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 76.2W
ABOUT 485 MI...775 KM E OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND
A HURRICANE WATCH FROM PUERTO CABEZAS NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER WITH
HONDURAS...INCLUDING THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS. THE GOVERNMENT OF
HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH
FROM THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER WESTWARD TO LIMON...INCLUDING
THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA TO LIMON HONDURAS...INCLUDING THE
OFFSHORE ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA TO LIMON HONDURAS...INCLUDING THE
OFFSHORE ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.2 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE
NEAR THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THE
DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TONIGHT OR FRIDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT...MAKING OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME COASTAL
FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DANGEROUS WAVES.

RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND
HONDURAS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5+shtml/231749.shtml?
 
Depression strengthens into tropical storm Matthew - Watches and Warnings issued for portions of Central America

Depression strengthens into tropical storm Matthew - Watches and Warnings issued for portions of Central America

Tropical Storm MATTHEW Public Advisory

000
WTNT35 KNHC 232041
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152010
500 PM EDT THU SEP 23 2010

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 76.9W
ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM E OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA TO LIMON HONDURAS...INCLUDING THE
OFFSHORE ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA TO LIMON HONDURAS...INCLUDING THE
OFFSHORE ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA ...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.9 WEST. MATTHEW IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR...THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE MATTHEW IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND MATTHEW COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY
SATURDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT...MAKING OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA BY SATURDAY.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME COASTAL
FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER OF MATTHEW MAKES
LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
AND DANGEROUS WAVES.

RAINFALL...MATTHEW IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 10 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINFALL
TOTALS MAY PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5+shtml/232041.shtml
 
Re: Depression strengthens into tropical storm Matthew - Watches and Warnings issued for portions of Central America

Re: Depression strengthens into tropical storm Matthew - Watches and Warnings issued for portions of Central America

Tropical Storm Force Wind Speed Probabilities - 120 Hours
Select a Future Forecast Time Below:
0 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 hours Loop


Click image to zoom in ? Download GIS data: 0.1 degree .shp 0.5 degree .shp

Click Here for a Printer Friendly Graphic

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/203526.shtml?tswind120#contents


Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center

Click image to zoom in ? Download GIS data
Other images: 5-Day track on ? 3-Day track on ? 3-Day track off


Click Here for a Printer Friendly Graphic
Note: If a storm is expected to dissipate within 5 days, its track will be shorter

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/203526.shtml?5-daynl#contents
 
Re: Depression strengthens into tropical storm Matthew - Watches and Warnings issued for portions of Central America

Re: Depression strengthens into tropical storm Matthew - Watches and Warnings issued for portions of Central America

Posted on Thursday, 09.23.10


Tropical Storm Matthew could be threat to Florida

BY CURTIS MORGAN​
cmorgan@MiamiHerald.com

Excerpt:
​

​


...``There are a lot of variables involved that make this a complicated forecast,'' said Michael Lowry, a meteorologist at the center in West Miami-Dade County.
...​

Some computer models, Lowry said, suggest the storm might split, with Matthew moving inland but a remnant left behind reforming into a new system. Lowry said the storm is too far off to get a solid handle on it, but the path should become more clear in coming days. For Florida, he said, it was a ``concern'' that many computer models predicted the system moving somewhere across the state...​


​
 
Re: Depression strengthens into tropical storm Matthew - Watches and Warnings issued for portions of Central America

Re: Depression strengthens into tropical storm Matthew - Watches and Warnings issued for portions of Central America

Sep 23, 2010 8:05 pm US/Eastern
Tropical Storm Matthew Headed To Western Caribbean

Excerpt:

...CBS4 Meteorologist Lissette Gonzalez says this is a storm to closely monitor over the next few days because a few of the models take this system towards the Western Caribbean this weekend and then possibly on a northerly track towards the Florida Straits by the middle of next week. Other models take the system towards Central America where it's already dumping rain. Regardless of development, this system will produce heavy rainfall over portions of Central America...

http://cbs4.com/local/Tropical.Depression.15.2.1928297.html
 
Re: Tropical Storm MATTHEW Public Advisory Number (4) 3 Day Forecast Track

Re: Tropical Storm MATTHEW Public Advisory Number (4) 3 Day Forecast Track

Matthew May Near Hurricane Strength by Nightfall

 September 24, 2010, 8:22 AM EDT<cite>By Alex Morales and Brian K. Sullivan</cite>


Sept. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Tropical Storm Matthew may near hurricane strength later today before hitting the Nicaragua- Honduras border along its Caribbean coast and continuing on a course toward Belize and Mexico?s Yucatan peninsula.

 Matthew?s winds increased to 50 miles (85 kilometers) an hour from 45 mph earlier today, the National Hurricane Center said in a website advisory at 6 a.m. Honduras time. A hurricane warning was in place from Puerto Cabezas in Nicaragua to Limon, Honduras, including offshore islands such as Roatan, indicating winds of at least 74 mph are expected within 36 hours.
?Matthew could be near hurricane strength before it moves close to Central America late today,? the Miami-based center said. ?The center of Matthew is expected to be near or over northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras later today.?
Matthew helped push natural gas futures higher over concerns that the system may develop into a hurricane and threaten energy interests in the Gulf of Mexico, home to 31 percent of U.S. oil production and 10 percent of gas. The southern gulf also contains the Petroleos Mexicanos?s Cantarell oil field, Mexico?s largest.

....
The center?s track shows Matthew grazing Honduras?s east coast before striking Belize early Sunday, Sept. 26, then turning northwest into the tip of Guatemala and to Mexico?s Yucatan early Tuesday, Sept. 28, on a course toward the Gulf. The center has said repeatedly its long-range tracks can be off by several hundred miles. The center warned of heavy rainfall over portions of Nicaragua and Honduras of six to 15 inches in isolated areas, including life-threatening flash floods and possible landslides.
...

--Editors: Randall Hackley, Todd White To contact the reporters on this story: Alex Morales in London at amorales2@bloomberg.net Brian K. Sullivan in Boston at bsullivan10@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Reed Landberg at landberg@bloomberg.net

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-09-24/matthew-may-near-hurricane-strength-by-nightfall.html
 
Re: Tropical Storm MATTHEW just north of San Andres, Providencia, Colombia; could become hurricane for Nicaragua, Honduras, Yucatan Peninsula

Re: Tropical Storm MATTHEW just north of San Andres, Providencia, Colombia; could become hurricane for Nicaragua, Honduras, Yucatan Peninsula

Friday, Sep 24th
Last update:10:17:26 AM GMT



Colombia's Caribbean coast prepares for tropical storm

Friday, 24 September 2010 07:17 Adriaan Alsema

<ins style="display: inline-table; border: medium none; height: 15px; margin: 0pt; padding: 0pt; position: relative; visibility: visible; width: 468px;"><ins id="google_ads_frame1_anchor" style="display: block; border: medium none; height: 15px; margin: 0pt; padding: 0pt; position: relative; visibility: visible; width: 468px;"></ins></ins>
matthew.jpg

Authorities on Colombia's Caribbean coast and the island of San Andres are preparing for the arrival of heavy weather due to tropical storm Matthew.
Even though the eye of the storm is staying north of the Caribbean islands of San Andres and Providencia, authorities expect heavy rains and squals to hit the islands and Colombia's northern coast on Friday and Saturday.
Authorities recommend tourists, fishermen and boat owners to consult the different port authorities before going to sea.
U.S. hurricane authorities are expecting Matthew to turn into a hurricane on Friday before hitting Honduras and continuing towards Belize and Mexico's Yucatan peninsula.


http://colombiareports.com/colombia...ibbean-coast-prepares-for-tropical-storm.html

Colombia Reports
 
Matthew heading toward Central America in a hurry - Watches and Warnings issued for portions of Central America

Matthew heading toward Central America in a hurry - Watches and Warnings issued for portions of Central America

Tropical Storm MATTHEW Public Advisory

000
WTNT35 KNHC 241456
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152010
1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 24 2010

...MATTHEW HEADING TOWARD CENTRAL AMERICA IN A HURRY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 82.2W
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM ESE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENTS OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA HAVE REPLACED THE
HURRICANE WARNING FROM PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA TO LIMON
HONDURAS...INCLUDING THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS...WITH A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH.

THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS REPLACED THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE
COAST OF BELIZE WITH A TROPICAL STORM WATCH.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER WITH
HONDURAS...INCLUDING THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS...INCLUDING THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF BELIZE

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.2 WEST. MATTHEW HAS
INCREASED ITS FORWARD SPEED AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR
20 MPH...32 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTIONS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF MATTHEW IS EXPECTED TO BE
NEAR OR OVER NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE OVER NORTHERN HONDURAS TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR BEFORE LANDFALL BUT
THEREAFTER...WEAKENING IS FORECAST.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE PLANE WAS 1001
MB...29.56 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST
WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME COASTAL
FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER OF MATTHEW MAKES
LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
AND DANGEROUS WAVES.

RAINFALL...MATTHEW IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 10 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINFALL
TOTALS MAY PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5+shtml/241456.shtml
 
Re: Matthew heading toward Central America in a hurry - Watches and Warnings issued for portions of Central America

Re: Matthew heading toward Central America in a hurry - Watches and Warnings issued for portions of Central America

<TABLE id=mapTable class=sm cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=3><TBODY><TR><TD class=full>Image Updated: 2:59 PM GMT on September 24, 2010</TD><SCRIPT language=javascript> var prefix="at201015_sat"; var zoom=3; var suffix = ".jpg"; var zoomtext; if (zoom != 3) zoomtext= "_"+ zoom; else zoomtext=""; function zoom_sat(dir) { if (dir=="in") zoom--; else zoom++; if (zoom < 0) zoom = 3; if (zoom > 3) zoom = 0; if (zoom != 3) zoomtext= "_"+ zoom; else zoomtext=""; document.getElementById('tropicalmap').src="http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/"+prefix+zoomtext+suffix; return; } function anim_sat() { if (suffix==".jpg") { suffix="_anim.gif"; document.getElementById("anim_button").src = "http://icons-ecast.wxug.com/graphics/pause_12x12.gif"; document.getElementById("anim_text").innerHTML = "Stop"; } else { suffix=".jpg"; document.getElementById("anim_button").src = "http://icons-ecast.wxug.com/graphics/play_12x12.gif"; document.getElementById("anim_text").innerHTML = "Animate"; } document.getElementById('tropicalmap').src="http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/"+prefix+zoomtext+suffix; return; } </SCRIPT><TD></TD><TD class=nobr>Animate</TD><TD></TD><TD style="WIDTH: 75px" class=nobr>Zoom Out</TD><TD></TD><TD class=nobr>Zoom In</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
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avn-l.jpg


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rgb-l.jpg


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Re: Matthew heading toward Central America in a hurry - Watches and Warnings issued for portions of Central America

Re: Matthew heading toward Central America in a hurry - Watches and Warnings issued for portions of Central America

New Orleans

Bob Breck, Chief Meteorologist Blog:


Thursday, September 23, 2010

Matthew Racing Towards Central America...


Newly named T.S. Matthew is racing westward at 17 mph and shows no signs of slowing down or turning to the north. NHC has shifted their earlier track slightly to the south and west meaning Matthew will impact land sooner and stay over land longer...bad news for Honduras and Belize and the Yucatan, but good news for us. We finally have a real cold front coming that will drop the Southshore into the 60s for next week with 50s on the Northshore ! That should protect us from whatever is left of Matthew or any new system that might develop south of Cuba. Florida could see an extended period of heavy rains thru the weekend into next week...

Read more:
http://bobbreck.blogspot.com/
 
Re: Matthew heading toward Central America in a hurry - Watches and Warnings issued for portions of Central America

Re: Matthew heading toward Central America in a hurry - Watches and Warnings issued for portions of Central America

Tropical Storm MATTHEW Public Advisory

000
WTNT35 KNHC 241752
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152010
200 PM EDT FRI SEP 24 2010

...MATTHEW ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR THE EASTERN TIP OF HONDURAS
AND NORTHERN NICARAGUA...TORRENTIAL RAINS ANTICIPATED...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 83.0W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM SSE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER WITH
HONDURAS...INCLUDING THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS...INCLUDING THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
* PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA TO LIMON HONDURAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF BELIZE

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA ...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.0 WEST. MATTHEW IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
MATTHEW IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER EXTREME NORTHEASTERN
NICARAGUA WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THEREAFTER...MATTHEW IS
FORECAST TO MOVE OVER NORTHERN HONDURAS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. MATTHEW IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE PLANE WAS 998
MB...29.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY REACHING THE COAST
OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA.
THESE WINDS SHOULD SPREAD INLAND LATER TODAY.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME COASTAL
FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER OF MATTHEW MAKES
LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
AND DANGEROUS WAVES.

RAINFALL...MATTHEW IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 10 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5+shtml/241752.shtml?
 
Re: Matthew heading toward Central America in a hurry - Watches and Warnings issued for portions of Central America

Re: Matthew heading toward Central America in a hurry - Watches and Warnings issued for portions of Central America

Tropical Storm MATTHEW Forecast Discussion

000
WTNT45 KNHC 241457
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152010
1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 24 2010

AN AIR FORCE PLANE INVESTIGATING MATTHEW THIS MORNING FOUND THAT THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS NOT BECOME ANY STRONGER. EASTERLY SHEAR HAS
KEPT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER NEAR THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF A ROUND BLOB
OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION AS INDICATED BY THE AIR FORCE PLANE AND
MICROWAVE DATA. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT AN INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS...BUT DATA FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE SO
FAR SUGGEST THAT THIS ESTIMATE COULD BE GENEROUS. MATTHEW ONLY HAS
12 HOURS OR LESS TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE LANDFALL...AND GIVEN THAT THE
ENVIRONMENT IS ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION DUE TO
SHEAR...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NO LONGER FORECAST MATTHEW TO BECOME
A HURRICANE.

THE CYCLONE HAS INCREASED ITS FORWARD SPEED AND THE BEST ESTIMATE OF
THE INITIAL MOTION IS TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 KNOTS.
MATTHEW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A STRONG DEEP EASTERLY FLOW AND THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST THAT THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE
WESTWARD OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. BEYOND TWO
DAYS...MODELS SHOW DIFFERENT SCENARIOS AND THE FORECAST BECOMES
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT THE MID-LEVEL
CENTER CONTINUES WESTWARD AND DISSIPATES...WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION WEAKENS AND BECOMES PART OF A NEARLY STATIONARY BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. SUCH A WEATHER PATTERN
WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE DANGEROUS TORRENTIAL RAINS IN CENTRAL AMERICA
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 24/1500Z 14.4N 82.2W 45 KT
12HR VT 25/0000Z 14.6N 84.2W 35 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 25/1200Z 15.4N 86.5W 30 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 26/0000Z 16.0N 89.0W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 26/1200Z 17.0N 90.0W 25 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 27/1200Z 18.0N 90.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT 28/1200Z 18.5N 90.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT 29/1200Z 18.5N 90.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT5+shtml/241457.shtml?
 
Re: Matthew heading toward Central America in a hurry - Watches and Warnings issued for portions of Central America

Re: Matthew heading toward Central America in a hurry - Watches and Warnings issued for portions of Central America

<TABLE class=full cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=full>Matthew not strengthening; Igor is Newfoundland's worst hurricane in memory</B>


</TD><TD></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>Updated: 2:02 PM GMT on September 24, 2010

Excerpt:


Impact of Matthew on Nicaragua, Honduras, and Belize

Tropical storm force winds from Matthew are forecast to extend outwards from the center between 40 - 80 nm (46 - 92 miles) as the storm moves along the north coast of Honduras this weekend. Matthew's initial forward speed of 15 mph will slow to 10 mph by Sunday morning. In combination, these factors should bring tropical storm force winds of 39+ mph to Guanaja, Roatan, and the central Honduras coast beginning between 4am - 8am EDT Saturday. These winds will last about 6 - 12 hours. Given the current weak state of Matthew, I doubt winds in excess of 50 mph will be seen on the Honduras coast as the storm passes to the north. The coast of Belize will be subject to a longer period of strong winds, since Matthew will be moving slower when it hits Belize, and may be a stronger storm. Expect 39+ mph winds to arrive at the coast of Belize between 6 - 10 pm EDT Saturday night, and persist for 12 - 16 hours, near where the center of Matthew makes landfall. A good way to compute these times of arrival and duration is to use our wundermap with the hurricane wind radius forecast layer turned on (Figure 1.) The main danger for Honduras, Belize, Mexico, and northern Guatemala will be from heavy rains, not wind. The forecast rain amounts of 6 - 10 inches, with isolated amounts of 15 inches, will cause severe flooding and dangerous mudslides. Belize is probably most at risk from Matthew's rains.

<B><BIG>Long range forecast for Matthew</B></BIG>

Matthew is being forced just north of due west by a strong ridge of high pressure. This ridge will keep the storm moving at 15 mph through Saturday. On Sunday, a trough of low pressure diving southwards over the Eastern U.S. will weaken the steering currents over the Western Caribbean and cause Matthew to slow to just 5 mph by Sunday night. The models are divided into two basic camps on what might happen next. One solution, championed by the ECMWF, NOGAPS, and UKMET models, has Matthew continuing inland once it makes landfall in Belize Sunday morning or afternoon. This solution means Matthew would likely dissipate over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. The other solution, given by the GFS, GFDL, and HWRF models, predicts Matthew will move inland over Belize for a day or so, then drift northeast and pop back out into the Western Caribbean sometime Monday or Tuesday. The key to Matthew's long range track depends upon how it interacts with a tropical low pressure area developing in the Eastern Pacific, and the trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. With steering currents expected to be weak, and small changes in Matthew's track making the difference between the storm being over land or water, the long range forecast for the storm is highly uncertain. It Matthew lingers in the Western Caribbean off the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula for several days, the potential exists for the storm to grow into a large and dangerous major hurricane. Sea surface temperatures and the total heat content of the Caribbean in this region are greater than the previous record highs set in 2005 (Figure 2), so there is plenty of fuel for a hurricane.

.../
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/article.html
 
Matthew moved inland over eastern Nicaragua - Expected to produce torrential rain over Central America

Matthew moved inland over eastern Nicaragua - Expected to produce torrential rain over Central America

Tropical Storm MATTHEW Public Advisory

000
WTNT35 KNHC 242035
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152010
500 PM EDT FRI SEP 24 2010

...MATTHEW MOVED INLAND OVER EASTERN NICARAGUA...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
TORRENTIAL RAINS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 83.7W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM WSW OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENTS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS HAVE DISCONTINUED THE
HURRICANE WATCH FROM PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA TO LIMON HONDURAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER WITH
HONDURAS...INCLUDING THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS...INCLUDING THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF BELIZE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
12 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW WAS
LOCATED INLAND OVER NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA NEAR LATITUDE 14.7
NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.7 WEST. MATTHEW HAS DECREASED ITS FORWARD
SPEED AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR.
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
BRINGING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ACROSS HONDURAS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND MATTHEW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE BY SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. NOAA BUOY 42057 LOCATED ABOUT 200
MILES...320 KM...NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF MATTHEW IS STILL
REPORTING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BE SPREADING WESTWARD MAINLY
OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

RAINFALL...MATTHEW IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 10 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5+shtml/242035.shtml?
 
Re: Matthew moved inland over eastern Nicaragua - Expected to produce torrential rain over Central America

Re: Matthew moved inland over eastern Nicaragua - Expected to produce torrential rain over Central America

Tropical Storm MATTHEW Forecast Discussion

000
WTNT45 KNHC 242036
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152010
500 PM EDT FRI SEP 24 2010

THE LATEST AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IN THE AREA FIXED THE
CENTER OF MATTHEW AT 1717 UTC ABOUT 30 NMI EAST OF THE NORTHEAST
COAST OF NICARAGUA WITH A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 998 MB AND WINDS
SUPPORTING AN INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS. SINCE THEN...MATTHEW MOVED
WESTWARD AND THE CENTER CROSSED THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA
AND IS NOW LOCATED INLAND SOUTH OF PUERTO LEMPIRA HONDURAS. THE
CLOUD PATTERN IS STILL WELL ORGANIZED WITH NUMEROUS CYCLONICALLY
CURVED RAINBANDS TO THE NORTH AND VERY DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE
CENTER. SINCE THE CENTER IS ALREADY OVER LAND...GRADUAL WEAKENING
SHOULD BEGIN.

AS THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE MOVES WESTWARD OVER HONDURAS DURING THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...A LARGE PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION WILL BE
OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS THERE
WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE. THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED IN THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE BASED ON AIRCRAFT AND NOAA BUOY DATA.

MATTHEW HAS DECREASED SOME IN FORWARD SPEED AND IS MOVING WESTWARD
ABOUT 13 KNOTS...WELL EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF A
SUBTROPICAL HIGH. THIS PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH IN
THE SHORT TERM...SO THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION IN ABOUT 2 TO 3
DAYS.

FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY DEPICTING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE MOST RECENT RUNS INDICATE THAT ANY
DEVELOPMENT THERE WOULD LIKELY NOT HAVE CONTINUITY WITH MATTHEW...
BUT RATHER REPRESENT THE FORMATION A NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 24/2100Z 14.7N 83.7W 40 KT
12HR VT 25/0600Z 15.2N 85.6W 35 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 25/1800Z 15.8N 88.0W 30 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 26/0600Z 16.5N 90.0W 25 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 26/1800Z 17.0N 91.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 27/1800Z 17.0N 91.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT5+shtml/242036.shtml?
 
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