kent nickell
Well-known member
This an interesting book with some implications also for a high CFR pandemic... I did a short review/synopsis
About the Author
Dmitry Orlov was born in Leningrad and immigrated to the United States at the age of 12. He was an eyewitness to the Soviet collapse over several extended visits to his Russian homeland between the late eighties and mid-nineties. He is an engineer with a BS in Computer Engineering and an MA in Applied Linguistics.
Reinventing Collapse, The Soviet Example and American Prospects by Dmitry Orlov
This book was written in 2008 but already has some wrong predictions.. such as a premise of continuing high oil prices which are now about 25% of what they were. So much for short term predictions. The Soviet Union also experienced hyperinflation as their major problem whereas we appear to be facing deflation. But I think he does make some good comparisons for how an economic collapse could affect the US as compared to how it affected Russia after the collapse of the Soviet Union.
??The ingredients I like to put into my superpower collapse soup are: a severe and chronic shortfall in the production of crude oil (that magic additive elixir of industrial economies), a severe and worsening foreign trade deficit, a runaway military budget and ballooning foreign debt. The heat and agitation can be provided most efficaciously by a humiliating military defeat and widespread fear of a looming catastrophe.??
In the Soviet Union housing was nationalized so people did not lose their house and that helped maintain social cohesion even though the housing was mainly dank apartments. They had much more developed public transportation so they weren?t as affected by the lack of being able to drive private transportation. Services including heat, running water, garbage removal and maintenance were centralized and cheap in terms of labor, materials and energy. Many had ?kitchen gardens to supplement their food supply. They did not have as lavish a lifestyle so were able to adapt to more austere conditions more easily. They often lived with relatives as opposed to having families dispersed over many states which also helped them persevere through difficult times both socially and economically. Soviet businesses were more inefficient which actually seemed to help during a collapse. They were not well enough organized to have a just in time economy so they had larger inventories and were more resourceful in making things work in a less structured way. They didn?t tend to have swift large layoffs but kept companies working at a minimal level where sometimes the most important thing was the cafeteria where workers could depend on a meal and the use of some of the inventory to develop barter oriented black markets.
??Thus all successful adaptations to the new circumstances will have to made at the local level, and will have to rely on existing infrastructure, inventory and locally available talents and skills??
??My conclusion is that the Soviet Union was much better prepared for economic collapse than is the US. It is important to understand that the Soviet Union achieved collapse-preparedness inadvertently, and not because of the success of some crash program??
??In this book, I have said some obvious things and some things that should surprise just about everyone. I have tried to express what most people think but fear to say, and perhaps even a few things that people fear to think. I have worked very hard to write a book on an important but seriously depressing subject that?s nevertheless fun to read; I hope that I have succeeded. All that I ask in return is that you retain the ability to see things clearly, decide for yourself, and keep your sense of humor ? no matter what happens.??
Many interesting things in this book. Often gets very survivalistic based on his experience with very severe conditions in post Soviet Russia?..
About the Author
Dmitry Orlov was born in Leningrad and immigrated to the United States at the age of 12. He was an eyewitness to the Soviet collapse over several extended visits to his Russian homeland between the late eighties and mid-nineties. He is an engineer with a BS in Computer Engineering and an MA in Applied Linguistics.
Reinventing Collapse, The Soviet Example and American Prospects by Dmitry Orlov
This book was written in 2008 but already has some wrong predictions.. such as a premise of continuing high oil prices which are now about 25% of what they were. So much for short term predictions. The Soviet Union also experienced hyperinflation as their major problem whereas we appear to be facing deflation. But I think he does make some good comparisons for how an economic collapse could affect the US as compared to how it affected Russia after the collapse of the Soviet Union.
??The ingredients I like to put into my superpower collapse soup are: a severe and chronic shortfall in the production of crude oil (that magic additive elixir of industrial economies), a severe and worsening foreign trade deficit, a runaway military budget and ballooning foreign debt. The heat and agitation can be provided most efficaciously by a humiliating military defeat and widespread fear of a looming catastrophe.??
In the Soviet Union housing was nationalized so people did not lose their house and that helped maintain social cohesion even though the housing was mainly dank apartments. They had much more developed public transportation so they weren?t as affected by the lack of being able to drive private transportation. Services including heat, running water, garbage removal and maintenance were centralized and cheap in terms of labor, materials and energy. Many had ?kitchen gardens to supplement their food supply. They did not have as lavish a lifestyle so were able to adapt to more austere conditions more easily. They often lived with relatives as opposed to having families dispersed over many states which also helped them persevere through difficult times both socially and economically. Soviet businesses were more inefficient which actually seemed to help during a collapse. They were not well enough organized to have a just in time economy so they had larger inventories and were more resourceful in making things work in a less structured way. They didn?t tend to have swift large layoffs but kept companies working at a minimal level where sometimes the most important thing was the cafeteria where workers could depend on a meal and the use of some of the inventory to develop barter oriented black markets.
??Thus all successful adaptations to the new circumstances will have to made at the local level, and will have to rely on existing infrastructure, inventory and locally available talents and skills??
??My conclusion is that the Soviet Union was much better prepared for economic collapse than is the US. It is important to understand that the Soviet Union achieved collapse-preparedness inadvertently, and not because of the success of some crash program??
??In this book, I have said some obvious things and some things that should surprise just about everyone. I have tried to express what most people think but fear to say, and perhaps even a few things that people fear to think. I have worked very hard to write a book on an important but seriously depressing subject that?s nevertheless fun to read; I hope that I have succeeded. All that I ask in return is that you retain the ability to see things clearly, decide for yourself, and keep your sense of humor ? no matter what happens.??
Many interesting things in this book. Often gets very survivalistic based on his experience with very severe conditions in post Soviet Russia?..
