Reconsidering human-to-human transmission of H7N9 in China, April 15, 2013

[Emily]

Re: Reconsidering human-to-human transmission of H7N9 in China, April 15, 2013

Is this their website?
http://www.chp.gov.hk/en/

I don't see the announcement there but could be missing it.

(When I tried to go to the source link in the headlineasia summary, (caijing), my virus software said it caught a script injection exploit or something like that and it wouldn't translate.)

 

[Giuseppe]

Re: Reconsidering human-to-human transmission of H7N9 in China, April 15, 2013

It's all right, all agreeable but with too many unknowns conclusion can't be correct.

Last year a triple (or quadruple) reassortant (H3N2v) started suddenly to spread in the US: in days it reached 300+ confirmed cases (without counting likely 'very mild' unnoticed cases).

The news of a swine-origin virus went almost unnoticed, out of the well known circle of flublogia.

However, we know as a even regional outbreak of H3N2(x) virus may cause severe damage especially in the older people.

Further, the instability of its structure (as demonstrated by the insertion of the M segment from H1pdm09) may put it into the list of suspected pandemic candidate.

Most of the H3N2v patients had a pig exposure but not all.

H3N2v, also, went unnoticed in pig population.

We have an immense domestic birds population in China and daily animal-to-human contacts.

The diffference between the US and the China story resides mostly in the antigenic conserved properties of the H3N2v (so that some degree of immunity exists into population), but this is not true for H7N9 (even though it is not known the level of exposure to prior H7/H9 in youngsters).

We cannot say whether H3N2v will pick up other genes from animal or human viruses and by this way, increasing its virulence and pathogenicity and transmissibility.

Despite this lack of knowledge, people went sooner distracted from this H3N2v, focusing on the Chinese strain (very Dangerous, indeed).

There is a clear bias in the evaluation of the events.

It is at the basis of the facts itself of being struck by surprise again and again by this novel H7N9: world was seeing obsessively toward H5N1 (or pdm09) when well other was smoldering elsewhere.

 

[gsgs]

Re: Reconsidering human-to-human transmission of H7N9 in China, April 15, 2013

post #20, JetStuuby Today, 06:35 AM
post #21, Emily Today, 06:51 AM
post #22, Giuseppe Michieli, Today, 06:58 AM
post #23, JetStuuby, Today, 08:10 AM
post #24, Giuseppe Michieli, Today, 08:12 AM
post #25, JetStuuby, Today, 08:15 AM
post #26, gsgs, Today, 08:16 AM


(FT loads a bit slowly for me currently, maybe ~30% slower than normal)

that link freezes my browser :-( (but I can still go back to the previous page )

OK, it worked with another browser (K-Melion) :

> The H7N9 virus because of the Q226L genetic variation when combined with upper respiratory
> tract cell protein alpha-2, can multiply in the upper respiratory tract similar to other seasonal
> influenza virus. When a person coughs the virus can be ejected from upper respiratory tract
> and infect another person, which increases opportunities for human-to-human transmission.

looks more like an opinion than an analysis or news event

 

[NS1]

Re: Reconsidering human-to-human transmission of H7N9 in China, April 15, 2013

A good discussion of why it is h2h
link to PNG

Why has Emergent H7N9
NOT Gone Viral?​

I can't believe that I'm arguing this side of the issue, but the facts are not elusive at this time.

If the statement and general direction found on the forum you mentioned held veracity:

Quote Redacted, My Paraphrase = H2H is the cause of ALL current H7N9 cases in China.

then probability suggests we would be seeing a far more rapid spread with considerable divergence in age groups. Spread has been slow for at least 6 weeks.

Without question, H2H has occurred, is occurring and will occur again. No one can argue against the fact that this disease has a special dispensation toward pandemic potential. But this thing at the moment must have a prima facie R0 approaching zero where 1.1 is a minimum for chained transmission.

B2H is the more probable primary route based on the sequences, the genetic history of the sequences and the epidemiology that is available at this time.

The combination of polymorphisms on the Hemagglutinin shows certain engagement in active host transition and is definitely acquiring signals that have been previously sampled from other serotypes that successfully adapted in Wet Markets, commercial poultry operations and companion animals.

Try to remember that we are not looking at a continuum or smooth progression between avian and mammal and certainly not a binary selection of avian or mammal.

Based on the data, the disease is alternating hosts and learning at most interactions, but has not yet "gone viral".

If we see emergence in Guizhou or Guangdong, then we'll likely find additional genetic revision within 21 days. At the end of that duration, a direction will be much clearer.

Even before then, if certain genetics are acquired, we must accept the fact of punctuated advancement that we've seen in recent zoonotic emergences. A spark is a spark. pH1N1, a confused reservoir, advanced through the Ukraine and officially put more people in graves over 6 weeks than the US reported in 6 months. Emergent H7N9 has the potential to "go viral" at noon today under the right circumstances.

But due to the intentional slowdown of public data production, we cannot presently quantify that potential.

 

[curiosity]

Re: Reconsidering human-to-human transmission of H7N9 in China, April 15, 2013

Rat (Mink and Fox, too) Meat for Mutton news article on recent discovery that rat, mink and fox meat were being sold as mutton.


Shanghai and Jiangsu provinces - Discovered at end of January ... hmmm ....

 

[jeffrey]

Re: Reconsidering human-to-human transmission of H7N9 in China, April 15, 2013

Rat (Mink and Fox, too) Meat for Mutton news article on recent discovery that rat, mink and fox meat were being sold as mutton.


Shanghai and Jiangsu provinces - Discovered at end of January ... hmmm ....

Interesting as I just found this article on the front of yahoo. A ring was selling rat meat for lamb!

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/rat-meat-sold-lamb-latest-132039664.html

This is Beijing!

 

[curiosity]

Re: Reconsidering human-to-human transmission of H7N9 in China, April 15, 2013

Okay, I'm just going to throw this scenario out there...

Shanghai and Wuxi City, Jiangsu Province are the central locations for the Rat Ring...

Rat meat for mutton = cheap prices on mutton ... What a deal!

Cooks buy "mutton" because of the great deal.
Retired people buy "mutton" because of the great deal.
Retirement homes serve "mutton" because it's a great deal...
(flaw - doesn't explain farmers, although, they probably like a good deal on "mutton", too - and if I was a chicken farmer, I would want a change of taste once in a while...)

Lamb is prepared in many different ways - sometimes served in "rare" or "medium rare" cooked versions.

Shanghai and Jiangsu are the first provinces reporting H7N9.

Rat Ring is beginning to be busted at end of January - ongoing arrest through February, March, April ...

In an effort to dispose of the product, the Rat Ring starts pushing the product away from the implicated areas - into other provinces surrounding Jiangsu and Shanghai (For a great deal, of course.)

The main ring is apprehended in Shanghai around Mid-late April - cases of H7N9 stop in Shanghai.

Cases across the provinces begin to dwindle (as far as we know).


From the beginning, the pattern of cases, erratic, wide geographic spread look similar to a food borne outbreak.

This scenario is really a bit far fetched... in fact, it's crazy, but my imagination just can't help itself.

 

[Shannon Bennett]

Re: Reconsidering human-to-human transmission of H7N9 in China, April 15, 2013

Rats are a natural part of farm life. They are there for the abundant food. Farmers HATE them. If rats are a vector then a farm would be a natural place to encounter rats their feces, urine and saliva.

 

[jeffrey]

Re: Reconsidering human-to-human transmission of H7N9 in China, April 15, 2013

Okay, I'm just going to throw this scenario out there...

Shanghai and Wuxi City, Jiangsu Province are the central locations for the Rat Ring...

Rat meat for mutton = cheap prices on mutton ... What a deal!

Cooks buy "mutton" because of the great deal.
Retired people buy "mutton" because of the great deal.
Retirement homes serve "mutton" because it's a great deal...
(flaw - doesn't explain farmers, although, they probably like a good deal on "mutton", too - and if I was a chicken farmer, I would want a change of taste once in a while...)

Lamb is prepared in many different ways - sometimes served in "rare" or "medium rare" cooked versions.

Shanghai and Jiangsu are the first provinces reporting H7N9.

Rat Ring is beginning to be busted at end of January - ongoing arrest through February, March, April ...

In an effort to dispose of the product, the Rat Ring starts pushing the product away from the implicated areas - into other provinces surrounding Jiangsu and Shanghai (For a great deal, of course.)

The main ring is apprehended in Shanghai around Mid-late April - cases of H7N9 stop in Shanghai.

Cases across the provinces begin to dwindle (as far as we know).


From the beginning, the pattern of cases, erratic, wide geographic spread look similar to a food borne outbreak.

This scenario is really a bit far fetched... in fact, it's crazy, but my imagination just can't help itself.

It will be interesting to see since this is now widely published, if we may have our culprit. I think it is not far fetched at all. I wonder if they ask the patients if they ate lamb, now that we know??? Time will tell, but it is odd that this has just surfaced and no one in the Medical community can figure out the true culprit. Well maybe this is their answer and explains too, why the age group distribution

 

[kiwibird]

Re: Reconsidering human-to-human transmission of H7N9 in China, April 15, 2013

Rat (Mink and Fox, too) Meat for Mutton news article on recent discovery that rat, mink and fox meat were being sold as mutton.


Shanghai and Jiangsu provinces - Discovered at end of January ... hmmm ....

I totally agree with your thoughts. Well worth investigating!