Recent fatality rate 1.32%

[Ronan Kelly]

Flu fatality rate in nine increased over 13 times in 6 weeks

Rata de fatalitate ?n gripa cu virusul A/H1N1 a crescut, ?n ultimele şase săptăm?ni, de peste 13 ori, de la 0,1% la 1,32%, adică un rom?n dintr-o sută moare din cauza maladiei, potrivit analizei datelor centralizate la Ministerul Sănătăţii. Fatality rate in influenza A/H1N1 virus has increased in the last six weeks, over 13 times, from 0.1% to 1.32%, ie from a Romanian one hundred dies from the disease, according to data analysis centralized at the Ministry of Health.

Rata de fatalitate ?n gripa nouă a crescut de peste 13 ori, ?n 6 săptăm?ni Flu fatality rate in nine increased over 13 times in 6 weeks
"Rata deceselor cauzate de gripa cu virusul A/H1N1 a depăşit-o pe cea prin gripa sezonieră. Astfel, dacă ?n gripa sezonieră rata de fatalitate a fost de 0,01-0,1 la sută, ?n gripa pandemică a ajuns la 1,32%", a declarat, miercuri, agenţiei MEDIAFAX, secretarul de stat ?n Ministerul Sănătăţii, Adrian Streinu Cercel. "The rate of deaths from influenza A/H1N1 virus has exceeded the one that the seasonal flu. Thus, if the seasonal flu fatality rate was 0.01-0.1 percent, pandemic influenza has reached 1 , 32%, "said Wednesday, AFP agency, the Secretary of State for Health, Adrian Streinu Cercel.

Totalul cazurilor de ?mbolnăviri ?nregistrate p?nă miercuri ?n Rom?nia este 6.255, din care 96 decese. All cases of illness recorded by Wednesday in Romania is 6255, of which 96 deaths.

P?nă ?n prezent au fost vaccinate ?mpotriva virusului pandemic 516.905 persoane. So far they have been vaccinated 516,905 people against the pandemic virus. Dintre acestea, peste 300.000 au fost vaccinate ?n perioada 4-10 ianuarie, nefiind ?nregistrate reacţii adverse importante, potrivit Ministerului Sănătăţii. Of these, 300,000 were vaccinated during 4-10 January, not recorded significant adverse reactions, according to Ministry of Health. http://translate.googleusercontent....le.com&usg=ALkJrhjgNC9ZZgRMWKNgCnVVtZGm2IsLGw

 

[alert]

Re: Recent fatality rate 1.32%

There is no reason to think that everyone in Romania (or anywhere else, for that matter) who caught H1N1 is a confirmed case. So the above calculation of 96 deaths in 6,255 confirmed cases may be an overestimate of the CFR of this virus.

 

[Vibrant62]

Re: Recent fatality rate 1.32%

Since only serious cases (ones bad enough to need hospitalisation) get tested just about everywhere in the world, comparison of CFR between countries based on confirmed cases only to the number of deaths is about as good a consistency of comparator as we are going to get.

The real ratio of course much lower if we take into account mild or non hospitalised cases, but since we have no way of accurately quantifying those figures (unless or until widespread antibody studies are undertaken from random subsets of populations) this sort of comparator is not unreasonable - but am open to suggestions or ideas of what else we could use between countries so that we are as close as we can be to comparing 'apples with apples'.

Other confounding factors of course will be access to healthcare - in some countries where regardless of problems, people have to pay to be seen, then lots of serious cases will stay (and perhaps die) at home.

We wont be able to know the true picture for several years, after the epidemiologists have done thier work looking at excess mortality data, and compared patterns country by country.

In the meantime confirmed cases to deaths seem as good a measure as any.

 

[Laidback Al]

Re: Recent fatality rate 1.32%

. . . In the meantime confirmed cases to deaths seem as good a measure as any.

Especially if the deaths counts are adjusted by population. Rates can then be compared between regions or countries.

 

[alert]

Re: Recent fatality rate 1.32%

I think differences in healthcare between countries is exactly what you are seeing. With the possible exception of the RBD mutations issue, this is the same virus worldwide, so any differences in CFR or apparent CFR would have to be solely due to differences in the population and the healthcare system.

And as far as the RBD changes, I think that too will take years before we fully understand the effect of those.