Re: INDONESIA: 60 H5N1 cases in 2011? Dr. Aditama's misquote corrected by IRIN

[Shiloh]

Re: INDONESIA: 60 H5N1 cases in 2011? Dr. Aditama's misquote corrected by IRIN

Source: http://www.irinnews.org/report.aspx?reportid=94727

INDONESIA: Bird flu deaths raise red flags

JAKARTA, 26 January 2012 (IRIN) - Two recent deaths from bird flu in Indonesia highlight the need for continued vigilance against a possible resurgence of the deadly virus, an official and health expert warned.

On 16 January, a five-year-old girl from northern Jakarta died after being tested positive for the H5N1 bird flu virus. She was a relative of a 24-year-old man who died on 7 January, the World Health Organization (WHO) said, adding that the two had contact with the same pigeons in their neighbourhood.

According to WHO, the latest fatalities brought the death toll from avian influenza in the country to 152, out of 184 confirmed cases since 2006.

The Health Ministry's director-general of disease control and environmental health, Tjandra Yoga Aditama, said there was no evidence that human-to-human transmission was involved in the latest case.

"As long as there are still birds carrying the virus, there will be cases of bird flu in humans from time to time," Aditama told IRIN.

Of 60 bird flu cases detected last year in Indonesia, 11 were fatal, Aditama said....

 

[sharon sanders]

Re: INDONESIA: Bird flu deaths raise red flags

Re: INDONESIA: Bird flu deaths raise red flags

Of 60 bird flu cases detected last year in Indonesia, 11 were fatal, Aditama said....

The WHO has only 12 cases H5N1 bird flu cases listed for Indonesia for 2011.

Were there 60 cases???

 

[sharon sanders]

Re: INDONESIA: 60 H5N1 cases in 2011? Aditama quoted by IRIN

Re: INDONESIA: 60 H5N1 cases in 2011? Aditama quoted by IRIN

Updated 2012 Confirmed and Suspected Human H5N1 Cases with Link to 2011 WHO Confirmed Case List

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?p=439181#post439181

 

[Vibrant62]

Re: INDONESIA: 60 H5N1 cases in 2011? Aditama quoted by IRIN

Re: INDONESIA: 60 H5N1 cases in 2011? Aditama quoted by IRIN

the numbers seem more realistic, if this quote is accurate. It must be remembered that it is entirely optional as to whether countries permit positive cases to be made public by WHO, although all cases must be reported to them. If this were accurate, then we would have a CFR of @ 20%.

If only 50% of cases are detected, then that would bring about a CFR of @10%.

This sort of logic may be where Ranicello gets his CFR estimate of 10% from. Still four times worse than 1918 however..

 

[Laidback Al]

Re: INDONESIA: 60 H5N1 cases in 2011? Dr. Aditama's misquote corrected by IRIN

Re: INDONESIA: 60 H5N1 cases in 2011? Dr. Aditama's misquote corrected by IRIN

On January 31, 2011, the IRIN corrected its previous report in which Dr. Aditama was quoted as saying there were 60 bird flu cases in Indonesia in 2011.

Today, the revision states

In 2011, there were 11 cases in Indonesia, and 60 in the world, Aditama said.

http://www.irinnews.org/report.aspx?reportid=94727

This revision is based on a DEPKES report from January 10, 2012 which reads in part --

In 2011, there were 11 cases in Indonesia, and 60 cases in the world ", said Prof. dr. Tjandra Yoga Aditama.

see: http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showpost.php?p=436109&postcount=3

Whether there were other unreported H5N1 cases in Indonesia in 2011 is unknown.