Pathfinder
Editor, Senior Moderator
Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs
Rapid Risk Assessment on
the finding of H5N6 HPAI in
wild birds in England and
Wales
22nd January 2018
Summary
This document is an update of a rapid risk assessment made on the 14th January in
response to a finding of H5N6 HPAI in Dorset and follows new findings in wild birds and a
revision to the original risk question. The same strain of virus has now been detected in
wild water birds in Warwickshire and Hertfordshire and this changes the risk assessment.
All updates made on the 22nd January are shown in red for ease of reference.
In December 2017, the Netherlands reported a new strain of H5N6 HPAI in a duck
fattening farm in Flevoland; several cases in wild birds (mute swans, Cygnus olor) in the
same region and cases in captive birds at a single site (mallard ducks, mute swans,
greylag geese and guinea fowl) were reported in the following days. In late December /
early January two further cases in wild birds were reported, one in southern Germany and
one in west Switzerland. In January 2018, three mute swans were found dead and tested
positive for H5N6 HPAI in Dorset, on the South coast of England and initial analysis
confirms this virus has the same characteristics as the Netherlands strain. The current
numbers, as of 12th January, are 15 mute swans, 1 Canada goose and 1 pochard, all
found dead and all testing positive. There have been no reports in domestic poultry, either
commercial or small holding premises.
On the 11th January, a second site was reported to the authorities. A large wild bird die-off
involving nearly 70 birds was observed by the site warden and 17 of the assemblage were
sent to the EU/OIE/FAO AI Reference Lab for testing. Thirteen birds of mixed species
tested positive for H5N6 HPAI and this was confirmed on the 16th January. The site is a
known gull roost in the Midlands, with several thousand gulls roosting at the site over the
winter months. Other migratory and resident wild waterfowl are also regularly reported
from the site. On the 19th January another submission of wild birds found dead at a third
site in Hertfordshire tested positive for H5N6. The submission included 19 wild waterfowl
and gulls. The site is in one of the Higher Risk Areas (European Implementing Decision
2017/263), identified by the high number of migratory wild waterfowl that overwinter there.
This rapid risk assessment is to gather the evidence and assess the likely source of
infection and the risk of spread of the virus to poultry or to wild birds in England and
Wales, in the context of the background risk level from migratory wild birds.
The assessment suggests that there is now an increase in the likelihood of finding more
cases in wild birds in England and Wales as a result of this finding, which increases this
risk level to HIGH in comparison to the previous national risk of incursion level (MEDIUM).
At a local level, around the site in Dorset, there would be a slight increase in the risk of
spread for poultry on poultry farms in the immediate area, where poultry mix with wild
birds, but there is some uncertainty around the role of bridging species and the modes and
risk of fomite spread into the local environment. The new site in Warwickshire is the roost
of many gulls of various species, several of which are migratory and local ornithological
expertise suggests they will travel long distances as part of their migration and relatively
long distances on their daily commute between feeding sites and roosting sites. The third
site hosts a substantial number of waterfowl and other water birds including gulls which
were amongst those tested positive for H5N6. Infected gulls may act as bridging species
for poultry farms or through transmission to other water birds and waterfowl. The
uncertainty around the length of time disease has been present and the probability of a
greater geographical spread of infection in wild birds has increased the risk level for the
direct and indirect exposure to poultry to MEDIUM although this will depend on the
biosecurity level at the holding level. Where strong biosecurity is implemented, the risk
may be mitigated to low.
...
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploa...sessment-avian-flu-wild-birds-H5N6-180121.pdf
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/avian-influenza-bird-flu-in-europe
Rapid Risk Assessment on
the finding of H5N6 HPAI in
wild birds in England and
Wales
22nd January 2018
Summary
This document is an update of a rapid risk assessment made on the 14th January in
response to a finding of H5N6 HPAI in Dorset and follows new findings in wild birds and a
revision to the original risk question. The same strain of virus has now been detected in
wild water birds in Warwickshire and Hertfordshire and this changes the risk assessment.
All updates made on the 22nd January are shown in red for ease of reference.
In December 2017, the Netherlands reported a new strain of H5N6 HPAI in a duck
fattening farm in Flevoland; several cases in wild birds (mute swans, Cygnus olor) in the
same region and cases in captive birds at a single site (mallard ducks, mute swans,
greylag geese and guinea fowl) were reported in the following days. In late December /
early January two further cases in wild birds were reported, one in southern Germany and
one in west Switzerland. In January 2018, three mute swans were found dead and tested
positive for H5N6 HPAI in Dorset, on the South coast of England and initial analysis
confirms this virus has the same characteristics as the Netherlands strain. The current
numbers, as of 12th January, are 15 mute swans, 1 Canada goose and 1 pochard, all
found dead and all testing positive. There have been no reports in domestic poultry, either
commercial or small holding premises.
On the 11th January, a second site was reported to the authorities. A large wild bird die-off
involving nearly 70 birds was observed by the site warden and 17 of the assemblage were
sent to the EU/OIE/FAO AI Reference Lab for testing. Thirteen birds of mixed species
tested positive for H5N6 HPAI and this was confirmed on the 16th January. The site is a
known gull roost in the Midlands, with several thousand gulls roosting at the site over the
winter months. Other migratory and resident wild waterfowl are also regularly reported
from the site. On the 19th January another submission of wild birds found dead at a third
site in Hertfordshire tested positive for H5N6. The submission included 19 wild waterfowl
and gulls. The site is in one of the Higher Risk Areas (European Implementing Decision
2017/263), identified by the high number of migratory wild waterfowl that overwinter there.
This rapid risk assessment is to gather the evidence and assess the likely source of
infection and the risk of spread of the virus to poultry or to wild birds in England and
Wales, in the context of the background risk level from migratory wild birds.
The assessment suggests that there is now an increase in the likelihood of finding more
cases in wild birds in England and Wales as a result of this finding, which increases this
risk level to HIGH in comparison to the previous national risk of incursion level (MEDIUM).
At a local level, around the site in Dorset, there would be a slight increase in the risk of
spread for poultry on poultry farms in the immediate area, where poultry mix with wild
birds, but there is some uncertainty around the role of bridging species and the modes and
risk of fomite spread into the local environment. The new site in Warwickshire is the roost
of many gulls of various species, several of which are migratory and local ornithological
expertise suggests they will travel long distances as part of their migration and relatively
long distances on their daily commute between feeding sites and roosting sites. The third
site hosts a substantial number of waterfowl and other water birds including gulls which
were amongst those tested positive for H5N6. Infected gulls may act as bridging species
for poultry farms or through transmission to other water birds and waterfowl. The
uncertainty around the length of time disease has been present and the probability of a
greater geographical spread of infection in wild birds has increased the risk level for the
direct and indirect exposure to poultry to MEDIUM although this will depend on the
biosecurity level at the holding level. Where strong biosecurity is implemented, the risk
may be mitigated to low.
...
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploa...sessment-avian-flu-wild-birds-H5N6-180121.pdf
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/avian-influenza-bird-flu-in-europe