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Quantitative Modeling of Virus Evolutionary Dynamics and Adaptation in Serial Passages using Empirically Inferred Fitness Landscapes

tetano

Editor, Senior Moderator
J Virol. 2013 Nov 6. [Epub ahead of print]
Quantitative Modeling of Virus Evolutionary Dynamics and Adaptation in Serial Passages using Empirically Inferred Fitness Landscapes.
Woo HJ, Reifman J.
Source

Biotechnology High Performance Computing Software Applications Institute, Telemedicine and Advanced Technology Research Center, U.S. Army Medical Research and Materiel Command, Fort Detrick, Maryland.
Abstract

We describe a stochastic virus evolution model representing genomic diversification and within-host selection during experimental serial passages in cell culture or live-host conditions. The model incorporates realistic descriptions of the virus genotypes in nucleotide and amino acid sequence spaces, as well as their diversification from error-prone replications. It quantitatively considers factors, such as target cell number, bottleneck size, passage period, infection and cell death rates, and the replication rate of different genotypes, allowing for systematic examinations of how their changes affect the evolutionary dynamics of viruses during passages. The relative probability for a viral population to achieve adaptation under a new host environment, quantified by the rate with which a target sequence frequency rises above 50%, was found to be most sensitive to factors related to sequence structure (distance from the wild type to the target) and selection strength (host cell number and bottleneck size). For parameter values representative of RNA viruses, the likelihood of observing adaptations during passages became negligible as the required number of mutations rose above two amino acid sites. We modeled the specific adaptation process of influenza A H5N1 viruses in mammalian hosts by simulating the evolutionary dynamics of H5 strains under the fitness landscape inferred from multiple sequence alignments of H3 proteins. In light of comparisons with experimental findings, we observed that the evolutionary dynamics of adaptation is strongly affected not only by the tendency towards increasing fitness values but also by the accessibility of pathways between genotypes constrained by the genetic code.

PMID:
24198414
[PubMed - as supplied by publisher]

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24198414
 
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