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Public urged to prepare for flu pandemic

AlaskaDenise

In Memoriam
http://society.guardian.co.uk/health/story/0,,1954092,00.html

James Sturcke
Wednesday November 22, 2006

The civil servant charged with coordinating Britain's response to emergencies has told the public to be ready for a possible flu pandemic.


Bruce Mann, the head of the Cabinet Office's civil contingencies secretariat, yesterday urged people to consider how their families would be likely to be affected by an outbreak, which scientists believe is likely to happen in the near future.

Mr Mann appealed for companies to come forward with information about the proportion of staff they believe would be absent during a pandemic.
<!-- This site/section combo is not set up to show MPU's -->"People need to think about what they would do in the most likely circumstances," he said, adding that there was a "remote possibility" power outages could be a consequence of worker shortages.

He said people should think how their ability to go to work would be affected by school closures or other restrictions likely to be introduced in the event of a pandemic.

However, he said they should "absolutely not" turn to the internet to buy stocks of prescription-only anti-viral drugs such as Tamiflu, which are thought to offer some protection against the worst effects of a flu outbreak.

Mr Mann said the "most fundamental" government reaction to any pandemic - which experts consider would be likely to start in Asia - would be "to communicate".

"When the first case of pandemic flu is discovered in the world, the first thing the government will do is communicate about what is known about the disease and get out the facts needed for decision making," he said. "We will also tell people what they can do to protect themselves."

The government' pandemic influenza contingency plan estimates that 25% of the population could fall ill during an outbreak.

With travel restrictions and other measures being considered by authorities in the event of a pandemic, some firms will be affected more than others.
Businesses whose workers commute by public transport or have childcare responsibilities are likely to be disproportionately hit by staff absence.

Pandemic flu, in common with season flu, is spread through breathing in the infection exhaled by sufferers. Workers who are ill or feel ill will be advised to stay at home, and people will be encouraged to avoid large gatherings.
Firms are being urged to draft contingency plans to cope with a 15% rate of absenteeism at any one time.

Smaller firms are likely to lose around one third of their workforces, and the Cabinet Office has produced a checklist to help businesses plan for pandemic flu.

Earlier, Mr Mann told a conference organised by Survive, a business continuity organisation, that he wanted to test whether what the Cabinet Office was doing "in our ivory tower in Whitehall" was filtering down to companies and the wider public.

He said the government was trying to improve two-way communication with businesses about emergency preparation, and advised delegates to familiarise themselves with the government's UK Resilience and Preparing for Emergencies websites.

Mike Osborne, the managing director of the business continuity firm ICM, claimed the government was failing to tap into the experience the private sector had of firms' emergency planning. "Our ability to engage is being totally ignored," he said.

Earlier this week, a report by the Royal Society and the Academy of Medical Sciences was highly critical of the government's failure to act on scientific advice.
The document proposed that an independent flu specialist should be appointed to advise the cabinet committee on flu pandemic planning alongside the chief medical officer and the chief scientific adviser.

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Re: Public urged to prepare for flu pandemic

"When the first case of pandemic flu is discovered in the world, the first thing the government will do is communicate about what is known about the disease and ........ "We will also tell people what they can do to protect themselves."

Nice to know the UK is sufficiently stocked so people can properly prepare for a 6 to 12 week quarantine on very short notice.

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Re: Public urged to prepare for flu pandemic

AlaskaDenise said:

Nice to know the UK is sufficiently stocked so people can properly prepare for a 6 to 12 week quarantine on very short notice.

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It has often been said that the UK is only 4 meals away from starvation because of its reliance on imports. The national strategic food stockpile (which does exist) does not hold 6 weeks worth of food. I sincerely hope that this policy is revised and updated. It is the cause of considerable worry for those who wholly understand the nature of the threat posed by a pandemic and the threat to JIT supply lines. I wouod love an assesment from tesco over what proportion of food is from import outside the UK, and a survey from their suppliers to find what proportion of their raw ingredients in finished products are dependent on imports. It should give them sleepless nights, as it does me when they look closely at the answers.
 
Re: Public urged to prepare for flu pandemic

As far as I can tell from public pronouncements and Select Committee evidence (so ignoring any secret plans there might be), the UK's thinking is far from 'joined up'.

Unlike the US, where pandemicflu.gov at least gives the nod to personal preparation, the UK has not explained the risk of the supply chain breaking down. Instead it appears that they are planning for the crisis, rather than mitigating it beforehand.

The plan seems to be that, on learning that a novel virus has emerged, the public will be informed about travel risks and personal hygiene and cough etiquette. At some point in the crisis, and we don't know when, the supermarkets will impose rationing. "We already have mechanisms to ration" the head of Sainsbury's said, or words to that effect. They (or the government) may have plans to run adverts for essentials along the lines of http://nuttysquirrelbargains.co.uk/ (watch the TV ad and imagine the products are rice; pasta; etc.), but that's far from clear.

In short, it all seems like a typical UK response which will result in chaos and panic. I hope I'm wrong.
 
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