pablomorgan
Well-known member
People might have to avoid public events if the deadly swine flu outbreak carries on spreading across Britain, a leading expert warned today.
Professor Sir Roy Anderson, rector of Imperial College, London, declared that a pandemic had already begun and the focus had to be on drug distribution.
People must heed warnings to use a tissue if they sneeze, not to touch their eyes, nose and mouth, to stay at home if feeling ill and to wash hands regularly, he said.
Although we are not at that point yet, 'there may well come a stage where one should avoid large public gatherings', he added.
The stark prospect came as the UK awaited crucial test results on an NHS worker feared to be the first in the UK to be infected by human-to-human transmission.
Graeme Pacitti, 24, has been placed in quarantine after he fell ill following a night out with honeymooner Iain Askham who picked up the virus with his wife in Mexico.
Iain and Dawn Askham
Transmission fears: Iain and Dawn Askham after leaving hospital. They may have passed on the virus to a friend before realising they were ill.
Meanwhile, a London student with the virus is said to be 'reacting very badly' and suffering from severe vomiting and the shakes.
The 22-year-old is being treated in isolation at the Royal Free Hospital in north London. Publicist Max Clifford, who is representing the family, said: 'He's in a bad way.'
Sir Roy said the disease was being transmitted in a sustained way in the US, and this would happen in other countries.
He said: 'The definition of phases five and six [of the WHO's pandemic alert scale] is somewhat irrelevant. A pandemic has started.'
Although Britain is well-placed with stocks of effective drugs, he is worried the NHS might not be able to distribute them to people in time.
'The difficult bits are going to be the logistics of making sure we can get the drug to the people who need it, and making sure the public takes note of the four public health message,' he told the BBC.
He expects the killer virus to hit Britain in two phases - the first lasting for the next few months when 'cases will double every few days'.
Graeme Pacitti could be the first case of human-to-human swine flu transmission after meeting Iain Askham in the pub
Nervous wait: Graeme Pacitti (back) could be the first case of human-to-human swine flu transmission after he met Iain Askham (front) in the pub
The crucial question was how many people might die or will need hospital treatment, he added.
'We've got a series of months where we can refine the logistics - it's not a cause for alarm at the moment and I must stress that if one makes a guess about the case fatality rate its not gong to be very low, but I very much hope it's going to be on the lower rather than the moderate to high stage.'
Gordon Brown, who visited an NHS Direct call centre this morning, said: 'This is across the world, it is hitting Britain and there will be more cases, but at the same time it is treatable.
'If we can get to people quickly, we can trace their contacts and if we can give those affected Tamiflu, then we can avoid the problems that we see in some of the other countries.'
Tests on Mr Pacitti are expected to be released later today. He met up with Mr Askham, 27, last week for a drink before his friend realised he was ill.
He has tested positive for the same type of infection as the Askhams, but further tests are required to determine the actual strain.
Scottish health minister Nicola Sturgeon has said it is 'probable' the flu had been passed between the pair.
If the diagnosis is confirmed by a second test today, it would mark a potential tipping point on the road to a serious outbreak of swine flu here.
Until now, all eight confirmed British cases - including three more revealed yesterday - originated in Mexico.
Last night, Mr Askham said of the possibility that he and his new wife Dawn had unwittingly infected a friend: 'We feel guilty that we could have infected our close family and friends and put their lives at risk.'
The development came as:
* The toll of confirmed cases worldwide soared above 330 as Germany confirmed its first case of human-to-human transmission;
* Hong Kong and Denmark have now confirmed their first cases of infection;
* More than 200 cases in the UK are being investigated. Some 16 in Wales have been ruled out but 20 are still being monitored;
* Mexico's chief epidemiologist Dr Miguel Angel Lezana said he raised the alarm on April 16 but that the World Health Organisation only reacted eight days later.
Mr Pacitti is a member of Mr Askham's six-a-side football team and fell ill after a night in the pub with his team last Thursday.
He is now quarantined at his home in Falkirk with members of his family.
Last night he said: 'It's just typical flu. I have a sore throat, a sore head and an upset stomach. I have been told to stay at home and my mother, her partner and my brother are also in the house.'
Dr Harry Burns, Scotland's chief medical officer, said it was 'more likely than less likely' that he would test positive for swine flu.
http://news.google.co.uk/news?um=1&ned=uk&hl=en&q=swine+flu+afghanistan
Professor Sir Roy Anderson, rector of Imperial College, London, declared that a pandemic had already begun and the focus had to be on drug distribution.
People must heed warnings to use a tissue if they sneeze, not to touch their eyes, nose and mouth, to stay at home if feeling ill and to wash hands regularly, he said.
Although we are not at that point yet, 'there may well come a stage where one should avoid large public gatherings', he added.
The stark prospect came as the UK awaited crucial test results on an NHS worker feared to be the first in the UK to be infected by human-to-human transmission.
Graeme Pacitti, 24, has been placed in quarantine after he fell ill following a night out with honeymooner Iain Askham who picked up the virus with his wife in Mexico.
Iain and Dawn Askham
Transmission fears: Iain and Dawn Askham after leaving hospital. They may have passed on the virus to a friend before realising they were ill.
Meanwhile, a London student with the virus is said to be 'reacting very badly' and suffering from severe vomiting and the shakes.
The 22-year-old is being treated in isolation at the Royal Free Hospital in north London. Publicist Max Clifford, who is representing the family, said: 'He's in a bad way.'
Sir Roy said the disease was being transmitted in a sustained way in the US, and this would happen in other countries.
He said: 'The definition of phases five and six [of the WHO's pandemic alert scale] is somewhat irrelevant. A pandemic has started.'
Although Britain is well-placed with stocks of effective drugs, he is worried the NHS might not be able to distribute them to people in time.
'The difficult bits are going to be the logistics of making sure we can get the drug to the people who need it, and making sure the public takes note of the four public health message,' he told the BBC.
He expects the killer virus to hit Britain in two phases - the first lasting for the next few months when 'cases will double every few days'.
Graeme Pacitti could be the first case of human-to-human swine flu transmission after meeting Iain Askham in the pub
Nervous wait: Graeme Pacitti (back) could be the first case of human-to-human swine flu transmission after he met Iain Askham (front) in the pub
The crucial question was how many people might die or will need hospital treatment, he added.
'We've got a series of months where we can refine the logistics - it's not a cause for alarm at the moment and I must stress that if one makes a guess about the case fatality rate its not gong to be very low, but I very much hope it's going to be on the lower rather than the moderate to high stage.'
Gordon Brown, who visited an NHS Direct call centre this morning, said: 'This is across the world, it is hitting Britain and there will be more cases, but at the same time it is treatable.
'If we can get to people quickly, we can trace their contacts and if we can give those affected Tamiflu, then we can avoid the problems that we see in some of the other countries.'
Tests on Mr Pacitti are expected to be released later today. He met up with Mr Askham, 27, last week for a drink before his friend realised he was ill.
He has tested positive for the same type of infection as the Askhams, but further tests are required to determine the actual strain.
Scottish health minister Nicola Sturgeon has said it is 'probable' the flu had been passed between the pair.
If the diagnosis is confirmed by a second test today, it would mark a potential tipping point on the road to a serious outbreak of swine flu here.
Until now, all eight confirmed British cases - including three more revealed yesterday - originated in Mexico.
Last night, Mr Askham said of the possibility that he and his new wife Dawn had unwittingly infected a friend: 'We feel guilty that we could have infected our close family and friends and put their lives at risk.'
The development came as:
* The toll of confirmed cases worldwide soared above 330 as Germany confirmed its first case of human-to-human transmission;
* Hong Kong and Denmark have now confirmed their first cases of infection;
* More than 200 cases in the UK are being investigated. Some 16 in Wales have been ruled out but 20 are still being monitored;
* Mexico's chief epidemiologist Dr Miguel Angel Lezana said he raised the alarm on April 16 but that the World Health Organisation only reacted eight days later.
Mr Pacitti is a member of Mr Askham's six-a-side football team and fell ill after a night in the pub with his team last Thursday.
He is now quarantined at his home in Falkirk with members of his family.
Last night he said: 'It's just typical flu. I have a sore throat, a sore head and an upset stomach. I have been told to stay at home and my mother, her partner and my brother are also in the house.'
Dr Harry Burns, Scotland's chief medical officer, said it was 'more likely than less likely' that he would test positive for swine flu.
http://news.google.co.uk/news?um=1&ned=uk&hl=en&q=swine+flu+afghanistan