Profiting during a pandemic ... what then?

[AlaskaDenise]

I'm not a major investor and don't understand all this metals trading. I don't wish financial ruin on anyone, however, there may be considerable reallocation of wealth.

I can't imagine it would be enjoyable to be like "the king was in his counting house, counting all his money" while surrounded by poverty and misery.

So my question is... what would be suitable investment strategies AFTER a pandemic, to help economies and families recover from any disaster?

Can new and creative strategies can be wrought by the financial genius that created the wealth? or will new leaders arise?

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[Laidback Al]

Re: Profiting during a pandemic ... what then?

I'm not a major investor and don't understand all this metals trading. I don't wish financial ruin on anyone, however, there may be considerable reallocation of wealth. . .

We don't really know if our current economic system will be functioning after a severe pandemic. All the discussions about gold, capital preservation, inflation, etc. assume that our economy will function the same way after a pandemic as it is functioning now. This may be an erroneous assumption.

Wealth may very well be defined differently after a pandemic. You may be the wealthiest family in the community if you and your offspring survive and have a sufficiently large garden or farm to produce enough for yourselves and your neighbors.

 

[AlaskaDenise]

Re: Profiting during a pandemic ... what then?

So - we'd need to reallocate resources to whatever new needs appear on the horizon? Maybe Balling Canning Supplies will rival Microsoft!...if they can get the raw materials.

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[StL Bill]

Unless we are talking...

Unless we are talking...

a pandemic significantly beyond 1918...which could happen, I see very little likelihood the the world financial systems are ruined....

I think that under severe pandemic conditions, the aftermath will see many people ruined financially. Most people must have and two incomes to pay the mortgage and without one....well, someone else will own that property.

It's the way of the past and in my view it will be the way of the future.

I think that organizing to aid those who get smacked by the pandemic is a worthy and altruistic goal....just don't expect most of the well healed to do so.

Fortunes were made during the depression and fortunes will be made during the pandemic.

 

[AlaskaDenise]

Re: Profiting during a pandemic ... what then?

I wasn't thinking so much of "aid" as what kind of a new economy will get the ball rolling again. For instance, holding a company that makes tanning salon equipment may do as well as one that makes gardening tools. So to maintain wealth "after" a pandemic, even the "well heeled" may need to change.

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[Laidback Al]

Making money after the pandemic

Making money after the pandemic

I think that under severe pandemic conditions, the aftermath will see many people ruined financially. Most people must have and two incomes to pay the mortgage and without one....well, someone else will own that property.

Yes, the financial ruin at the family level would be great without two incomes. But that begs one of the questions that AlaskaDenise wants answered.

We have to assume that the whole market system will be in disarray. If you or your spouse don?t have a job to go to, that means that your employer has lost customers, no longer has inventory, can not receive inventory because of lack of transportation, etc. Our economy is just one long chain of just-in-time delivery of both good and services. Break one link in that chain and there will be a problem, break many links, as might happen in a pandemic, and it will be difficult to jump start the economy.

<OSo, in response to AlaskaDenise?s question about ?what would be suitable investment strategies AFTER a pandemic? I would suggest investing in local companies that service personal needs, have access to locally produced resources, and that don?t require a lot of skilled labor. Translating this to English, invest in a forward thinking company in your town that has it own power and water supply, sits next to a pulp forest, and manufactures toilet paper. <O

 

[AlaskaDenise]

Re: Making money after the pandemic

Re: Making money after the pandemic

.........“what would be suitable investment strategies AFTER a pandemic” I would suggest investing in local companies that service personal needs, have access to locally produced resources, and that don’t require a lot of skilled labor. Translating this to English, invest in a forward thinking company in your town that has it own power and water supply, sits next to a pulp forest, and manufactures toilet paper. <O

Great Al - that's the kind of thinking I was looking for. The employees might even be former IT professionals - thankful for a job & willing to learn new skills . So the strategy is "find a need a fill it" with LOCAL resources.

Now if we could start getting these enterprises off the ground now... perhaps we could mitigate disastrous impacts on everyone. This is beginning to sound like "cottage industries" with a basic-commodity product line. A small investment now in organic farming could expand when the need arises.


Bill - regarding the concerns of the "well-heeled" - FYI I spent the 1st 30 years of my life in a community that had more millionaires per capita than anywhere else in the US - never met anyone with your attitude.

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[GaudiaRay]

Re: Making money after the pandemic

Re: Making money after the pandemic

Great Al - that's the kind of thinking I was looking for. The employees might even be former IT professionals - thankful for a job & willing to learn new skills . So the strategy is "find a need a fill it" with LOCAL resources.
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Is the skill learning how to use toilet paper?

 

[Laidback Al]

Re: Making money after the pandemic

Re: Making money after the pandemic

Is the skill learning how to use toilet paper?

No, how to carefully roll it on to the cardboard tube.

 

[AlaskaDenise]

Re: Profiting during a pandemic ... what then?

I visualize executives learning how to milk a cow.

Or operate a forklift. (actually my college-educated daughter-in-law did just that - her family said "we sent you to college and you're doing WHAT"?)

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[StL Bill]

Re: Making money after the pandemic

Re: Making money after the pandemic

Bill - regarding the concerns of the "well-heeled" - FYI I spent the 1st 30 years of my life in a community that had more millionaires per capita than anywhere else in the US - never met anyone with your attitude.
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MY attitude?

I was merely stating my observation that in today's 'American' society, there continues to be a gathering of wealth at the top echelons and a dramatic increase in the poor. That to me says that the rich are disinclined to be generours and that if they had the opportunity to futher benefit from the unfortunate, they would do so in a blinding flash.

Still, that was not your issue, or your question and I apologize for missing the point. You asked how the economy would change and I believe that it will not fundamentally change except that those companies that cater to the middle class and upper middle class are likely to fare poorly.

Starbucks, for example,...I'm guessing...would be hard hit.

I don't think 'local' companies are likely to be the answer unless YOU are that local company. I think the big money companies like Walmart are the clear winners. Those that are positioned locally, but have global reach and good management. Companies like that will overcome the 'anti-monopoly' hurdle in society's rush to 'normalcy'. They will receive concessions that today they would not receive....the result? MORE concentration of wealth in big industry.

Of course, because of the demand for labor, this may alter the dynamics. Those big companies may be required to improve the lot of their employees.

 

[Mellie]

Re: Profiting during a pandemic ... what then?

Alaska Denise,

I'm going to work next with local millionaires to see what kinds of companies could be set up now that could mitigate pandemic in terms of toilet paper, soap, whatever else is fairly simple and local.

I'm also going to work with our younger generation business people. My nephews 19 and 21 just participated in a small startup business competition with a small $25,000 award provided to the winner. Great group of entrepreneurial young people here. The nephews are trained in alternative energy technology but, like our sons, have many skills across many areas that translate to self-sufficiency.

I am going to run your thoughts on commodities and businesses that would help in the face of pandemic past them and the older group and ask them to brainstorm what might get planned for now. Our younger generation is very business savy and future thinking. Our older group is very into vitality of the county.

 

[GaudiaRay]

Re: Profiting during a pandemic ... what then?

Alaska Denise,

I'm going to work next with local millionaires to see what kinds of companies could be set up now that could mitigate pandemic in terms of toilet paper, soap, whatever else is fairly simple and local.

I'm also going to work with our younger generation business people. My nephews 19 and 21 just participated in a small startup business competition with a small $25,000 award provided to the winner. Great group of entrepreneurial young people here. The nephews are trained in alternative energy technology but, like our sons, have many skills across many areas that translate to self-sufficiency.

I am going to run your thoughts on commodities and businesses that would help in the face of pandemic past them and the older group and ask them to brainstorm what might get planned for now. Our younger generation is very business savy and future thinking. Our older group is very into vitality of the county.

Don't forget, I want to apply for one of those jobs winding TP onto cardboard tubes. After the stress of the pandemic, I think I'd like a simple, mindless job, something I can do in a factory as by then I don't think I'll need anymore alone time. I wear reading glasses, though, so I hope that doesn't disqualify me.

Further, if I've looted and killed intruders by then, 2 years into the pandemic, will that disqualify me also? Is there no waiver?

 

[Mellie]

Re: Profiting during a pandemic ... what then?

GR, killing intruders, well I don't know. In any case, we'll save you a place in the worker bee line. It would be fun to have your bad mouth and "soft in the middle" up here in norcal, as long as you promise to exercise the youth in such a way that they don't want to throttle you (and succeed)!

If you want something even more boring than rolling TP, I'm sure we can come up with that too! You'll be all the entertainment we'll need post pandemic, I'm sure!

 

[Laidback Al]

Re: Making money after the pandemic

Re: Making money after the pandemic

. . . You asked how the economy would change and I believe that it will not fundamentally change except that those companies that cater to the middle class and upper middle class are likely to fare poorly.

StL Bill has a point, companies that benefit from the disposable income of the middle class will be hit the hardest in and after a pandemic. Even if the rich upper class have there wealth cut in half it shouldn't disturb their buying habits. Poor people already have no disposable income and have to concentrate on buying basic necessities.

The middle class will have to adjust their spending patterns, especially if one of the family breadwinners has lost their job. Spending will be cut back to basic necessities, and the spending patterns of the middle class will probably mirror those of the poorer classes.

No new SUVs, TVs, DVD players, etc. I think that repair services will be a hot sector after the pandemic. We will no longer have a throw-away mentality. Repairing vehicles, bicycles, washing machines, etc. will be big business. And certainly trained plumbers and electricians will be able to make a fortune repairing things.

 

[sharon sanders]

Re: Profiting during a pandemic ... what then?

Since H5N1 has an affinity for the working age groups and younger, there will be an extreme shortage of labor.

Any businesses that can obtain and then provide labor will be a "winner". This might be a Nursing Staffing Company, for instance.

The trick would be to establish those contacts now, including how to legally bring in foreign workers to fill the gap.

 

[AlaskaDenise]

Re: Making money after the pandemic

Re: Making money after the pandemic

StL Bill has a point, companies that benefit from the disposable income of the middle class will be hit the hardest in and after a pandemic. Even if the rich upper class have there wealth cut in half it shouldn't disturb their buying habits. Poor people already have no disposable income and have to concentrate on buying basic necessities.

The middle class will have to adjust their spending patterns, especially if one of the family breadwinners has lost their job. Spending will be cut back to basic necessities, and the spending patterns of the middle class will probably mirror those of the poorer classes.

No new SUVs, TVs, DVD players, etc. I think that repair services will be a hot sector after the pandemic. We will no longer have a throw-away mentality. Repairing vehicles, bicycles, washing machines, etc. will be big business. And certainly trained plumbers and electricians will be able to make a fortune repairing things.

I love ALL your points!

Spending would probably be on necessities and the lack of throw-away items would spur basic repair enterprises & skill-demands. (note to myself - learn how to repair everything)

Those with some wealth may find their sought-after goods simply unavailable, either due to lack of materials or low demand shutting down the enterprise.

If communities can plan now to activate at least a scaled down version (aka cottage industry) of basic necessity enterprises, they may be in a better position in the future. Then they need to SUPPORT those enterprises now. That might entail NOT allowing subdivisons or retail on good farm land close to population centers, etc.

Regarding TP - how much of that paper pulp comes from the US? Do we have sufficient capacity of materials and processing to be self-sufficient in TP? What are the alternatives? .......ditto for other necessities.

We may measure time in terms of when the TP (or coffee, or chocolate, or plastic sacks, or auto parts, or soap ) ran out and how many months/years passed before they reappeared. Even though I can make soap, I still need the oils and lye.

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[Mellie]

Re: Profiting during a pandemic ... what then?

AD,

I got the soapmaking skills honed again in January with necessity in mind.

Yeah on the lye. I looked for it EVERYWHERE. In the "olden days" when we had summercamp you could buy a whole 25# sack to use either to toss a scooper down the outhouse hole or to make soap with. The kids loved soapmaking...

Well I looked and looked for lye. No luck. Finally I asked an old friend who owns a hardware store. He said that lye is an ingredient in some cooked drug like methemphetamine. As a result, it's not so available.

You can't buy lye in large quantities any more for soap or cleaning your drains or anything. Hardware stores mow have to keep track of people who buy more than a pound or two... and it's only sold in small quantities.

I recall making soap with ashes from the fire pit too. It worked pretty well.

Sudafed (or the costco alternative generic antihistamine) is another ingredient of meth. I got some of that in case it helps with cytokine storm.

 

[AlaskaDenise]

Re: Profiting during a pandemic ... what then?

I understand the lye problem. When my premix soap base runs out & I start doing cold process, my son will special order me some lye - he manages a hardware store. They need to ship it with their "dangerous" stuff.

Sometimes I think the biggest "danger" is that cottage industries are cutting into profits of the bigger businesses.

I've been trying to find large bottles of shampoo - I'm about ready to order a gallon+ of the base for shampoo making. Then I can make a really good shampoo & have large quantities.
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