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Profiteering is off limits?

Re: Profiteering is off limits?

Think demand for aluminum foil will rise even more? :D

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Re: Profiteering is off limits?

Laidback Al said:
I am in on this as well. We need to continue the discussion about financial preps to help refine our own thinking as the situation changes and to provide up-to-date discussions for those just starting to plan for the financial impacts of a pandemic.

Since we don't have a pandemic at the moment, I don't see how anyone can be talking about or promoting "profiteering". We all want to minimize our losses and maximizes our gains in light of uncertain market conditions. It will only be after a pandemic has started that we can, retrospectively, apply the term "profiteering" to certain economic activities.

Laidback Al,

I believe 'profiteering' is taking place as we speak.

Let's look at this scenario:

1) Company A claims to have a potential vaccine or new approach to H5N1.
2) You invest in Company A.
3) Company A issues a press release on this potential vaccine/new approach and their stock price takes a positive bounce.
4) You sell off your investement.
5) It later turns out that Company A's potential vaccine/new approach won't be ready for 5 -10 years or the potential vaccine/new approach is really just a whole bunch of hot air with no real substance.
6) Company A stock price takes a loss.

True or false?

You just made money off of pure H5N1 speculation with no proven facts.

Would you call that 'profiteering'?

I would.
 
Re: Profiteering is off limits?

I am an active investor and initially became interested in bird flu for that reason. I follow and own a handful of "bird flu stocks" -- mostly companies that make masks and other protective gear. Call it profiteering if you like -- I just look at it as investing and another level of self protection.

ALL investing -- whether its in widgets or apples -- is a level of profiteering.

Most bird flu stocks, by the way, have performed horribly over the last 2-3 months. Interest in bird flu has waned among speculators and there's a greater awareness that vaccine production is a crap shoot. How do you manufacture a vaccine for a virus that doesn't yet exist?

Having said that -- I don't think there's anything wrong with owning a few of these stocks, if only as a hedge. A pandemic will trash financial markets around the world. Your 401k's, IRA's, personal investments, etc. will all suffer enormous losses and likely stay that way for years. Buying a few bird flu stocks can hedge you against those kind of losses. Look at them as insurance.

Gold and gold mining stocks are also insurance. Just look for companies that have mines in politically stable, developed countries -- where the effects of a pandemic on the workforce might not be as severe.

Look for the U.S. dollar and U.S. government and corporate bonds to rally in a pandemic, as there would be a flight to quality... a search for "safe" assets with reliable dividends.

Financial markets around the world are paying little or no attention to bird flu. I've watched in amazement this year as the Jakarta market has rallied in the face of earthquakes, bird flu clusters and an incompetent government. The world is far more concerned about interest rates and oil than it is about avian flu. WHO's disingenuous statements have played a role in this --- setting us up for quite a fall when the first quarantines and travel restrictions begin and the realization sinks in there's a nasty virus spreading fast.

The markets are totally unprepared for it. You should be.
 
Re: Profiteering is off limits?

Pat18970,

I agree with you that the markets are unprepared for what is coming.

It seems that when it comes to 'really bad things' the markets take a 'wait till it happens' approach.

In 1914 the stock markets were oblivious the day before the start of World War I.

Which is why trying to play the markets going into and during a pandemic is a feat in futility.

One of my biggest concerns will be the 'snake oil' type solutions that are going to appear during the pandemic. We at FluTrackers will do everything in our power to fight these types of solutions, which fall into the category of 'profiteering'.

Even today we fight. As of today we do not allow articles from PRWEB to be posted to the site because they are press releases in which any company can make any claim they want without a shred of evidence. The false claims that some companies and individuals make already fall into the category of 'profiteering'.

The stock market is just one avenue for 'profiteering' to occur. I personally believe that avenue will be shut once the pandemic starts taking hold as most money will be pulled out of the markets. At that point the 'profiteering' will occur locally and that is what we all should be concerned about.
 
Re: Profiteering is off limits?

Hey, Hey,

...could not avoid landing here,

To all of you who long for a Fruit that you feel is going further from you.

I Will not allow the ''Poor harsh Life'' resentment to hijack this thread, but !!!!

But let me tell you this, let this Ghetto Owl write this,

Pour the Grace Money, that felt into your hand to built tyni Community, Eolians, Solar Power, and GreenHouse, then just shut your Power before injustice blast you.

Snowy Owl
 
Re: Profiteering is off limits?

Jeremy,

I'm not so sure its futile. Difficult, yes... as most forms of investing are.

I assume you have some investments in the stock market -- either directly or indirectly. Will you stay fully invested in the early stages of a pandemic? Take a wait and see attitude? Pull everything out when the next cluster pops up? We all have those decisions to make. And every one of those decisions is "playing the market" in one form or another. If you pull everything out, you are speculating just as much as someone who buys 100 shares of Masks-R-Us.

To me -- what is futile is throwing your arms up in the air and saying nothing can be done or should be done.

<< I personally believe that avenue will be shut once the pandemic starts taking hold as most money will be pulled out of the markets. At that point the 'profiteering' will occur locally and that is what we all should be concerned about. >>

If everyone pulls out of the market at the same time, "most money" will evaporate. Your shares in GM, Microsoft, McDonald's, etc. will be next to worthless. So will your neighbor's shares. And your employer's... who may or may not be able to re-hire you once the pandemic passes. Your 401k, your IRA and your pension (if you are lucky enough to have one) will be cut to the bone. I would be very concerned about all of that, unless you envision the
next round of profiteering to include sticks and stones as vehicles of commerce. Or, more likely, guns.

I'm glad you're keeping FT a no-hype zone when it comes to stocks. I'll do my part to keep it that way.
 
Re: Profiteering is off limits?

Jeremy said:
Which is why trying to play the markets going into and during a pandemic is a feat in futility.

One of my biggest concerns will be the 'snake oil' type solutions that are going to appear during the pandemic. We at FluTrackers will do everything in our power to fight these types of solutions, which fall into the category of 'profiteering'.

...The false claims that some companies and individuals make already fall into the category of 'profiteering'.

The stock market is just one avenue for 'profiteering' to occur. I personally believe that avenue will be shut once the pandemic starts taking hold as most money will be pulled out of the markets. At that point the 'profiteering' will occur locally and that is what we all should be concerned about.

:iagree:
 
Re: Profiteering is off limits?

Pat18970,

1) I have 0 (Zero) dollars, 0 (Zero) shares in the stock market, both directly and indirectly. And by the way I never had any money or shares in the stock market.

2) I am self-employed.

3) I do not have a 401k. I do not have an IRA. I do not have a pension.
 
Re: Profiteering is off limits?

Gee, Jeremy,

Come up here soon,

We have some good coffe and wild meat
 
Re: Profiteering is off limits?

Jeremy said:
Laidback Al,

I believe 'profiteering' is taking place as we speak.

Let's look at this scenario:

1) Company A claims to have a potential vaccine or new approach to H5N1.
2) You invest in Company A.
3) Company A issues a press release on this potential vaccine/new approach and their stock price takes a positive bounce.
4) You sell off your investement.
5) It later turns out that Company A's potential vaccine/new approach won't be ready for 5 -10 years or the potential vaccine/new approach is really just a whole bunch of hot air with no real substance.
6) Company A stock price takes a loss.

True or false?

You just made money off of pure H5N1 speculation with no proven facts.

Would you call that 'profiteering'?

I would.

I guess I am not sure what I would call profiteering. The example you pose seems to me to be a sound investment strategy of maximizing gain. You buy low and sell high. I think it would become profiteering if you had insider knowledge about the vaccine that is not available to every investor.

Suppose we take your same example, and instead of an H5N1 vaccine, we substitute "a cure for cancer" or " a car that 1000 miles per gallon of biodiesel". Would you still call it profiteering if I bought low and later sold when the market runs up the stock price? The very basis of the stock market investment is to sell your positions for more than you paid for them. That is not profiteering to me.

To me, a clear example of profiteering from a potential H5N1 pandemic will be cases where outright charlatans are selling snakeoil and H5N1 miracle cures to the unsuspecting masses once a pandemic starts.

On the other hand, if all the toilet paper in your town is sold out and you have a warehouse full that you are willing to sell, where is the price point between being a shrewd businessman and a profiteering pirate? $1/roll? $10/roll? or a $100/roll?
 
Re: Profiteering is off limits?

Laidback Al said:
I guess I am not sure what I would call profiteering. The example you pose seems to me to be a sound investment strategy of maximizing gain. You buy low and sell high. I think it would become profiteering if you had insider knowledge about the vaccine that is not available to every investor.

Suppose we take your same example, and instead of an H5N1 vaccine, we substitute "a cure for cancer" or " a car that 1000 miles per gallon of biodiesel". Would you still call it profiteering if I bought low and later sold when the market runs up the stock price? The very basis of the stock market investment is to sell your positions for more than you paid for them. That is not profiteering to me.

To me, a clear example of profiteering from a potential H5N1 pandemic will be cases where outright charlatans are selling snakeoil and H5N1 miracle cures to the unsuspecting masses once a pandemic starts.

On the other hand, if all the toilet paper in your town is sold out and you have a warehouse full that you are willing to sell, where is the price point between being a shrewd businessman and a profiteering pirate? $1/roll? $10/roll? or a $100/roll?

Laidback Al,

All good points.

In the system that exists today you would be correct.

In a run up to a pandemic it is all personal choice about what you feel comfortable with in terms of investment. In the example I gave, to me it is profiteering, to you it is not. We are both correct.

However, during the pandemic their shoud be some limits on what someone can charge in the toilet paper example that you gave.

Personally I think their should be a price freeze.
 
Re: Profiteering is off limits?

Everyone is correct.

I believe Stl Bill started this thread to discuss the "theory" of profit. In the theory he and I disagree.

In reality, since the pandemic has not started, no one has tried to profit yet. However, there are plenty of opportunists trying to take advantage of the avian influenza situation.

There is nothing wrong in financially preparing by protecting your assets.

The question at hand is, When are profits excessive in a disaster?

In the State of Florida, once a state of emergency is declared, it is illegal to charge more than your standard level of profit. You can pass on increased and substantiated costs, but your level of profit must remain the same as before the calamity.
 
Re: Profiteering is off limits?

Florida1 said:
. . . In the State of Florida, once a state of emergency is declared, it is illegal to charge more than your standard level of profit. You can pass on increased and substantiated costs, but your level of profit must remain the same as before the calamity.

Florida1, do you know how common this is among other states? Are there any federal laws regarding price gouging in a disaster or an emergency?

Unfortunately in a pandemic, given our JIT economy, I think that production and distribution costs will skyrocket (due to worker absenteeism) long before profiteering starts.
 
Re: Profiteering is off limits?

To me -- what is futile is throwing your arms up in the air and saying nothing can be done or should be done. - Pat
Yes, if you have some stock investments and they suddenly drop 90 %, you will wish then that you had done some kind of hedge or wild speculation to even recoup even a small percent of that kind of devastating loss ...as in a loss to your life savings. IOW, if you think a pandemic is imminent, you might want consider taking some kind of action.

Pat - Welcome and please keep up the great posts. :)
 
Re: Profiteering is off limits?

I am fairly certain there is no federal law due to the concept of "states rights". However, the President has special powers during a national emergency and could theoretically freeze prices, etc.

Florida has this law due to the unscrupulous activities just before and after the numerous hurricanes.





http://www.flsenate.gov/statutes/index.cfm?mode=View%20Statutes&SubMenu=1&App_mode=Display_Statute&Search_String=501.160&URL=CH0501/Sec160.HTM

http://fpc.state.gov/documents/organization/6216.pdf
 
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Is profiteering black or white?

Is profiteering black or white?

Pat18970, welcome and thanks for your posts.

Everyone, we're really talking about ethics and personal choice here. (And the fact that if Florida1 and/or Jeremy think your particular post is fostering profiteering you'll be warned.)

It's clear that those who are not invested in the stock market and/or who do not have assets to protect can proclaim "no profiteering" the loudest. They have nothing to loose or to protect. (An analogy is that it's easy to not be selfish and even to rail against selfishness if you have nothing to hold to yourself.)

Likewise, those who have lots of assets and have figured out what to do to protect them -- either because they know business or because they can hire "advisors" -- and are happy to park their assets someplace and let them safely sit (or do whatever) can also proclaim "no profiteering". Some are into drawing a line in the sand with right on one side and wrong on the other. They've made their decision. They've probably come to terms with it, justified it to themselves as right. They're prepped. But maybe things aren't so black or white. (To continue the selfish analogy, they can be selfish to some "acceptable right level" as long as they set some aside for whomever it is they need to, to satisfy themself or if they're otherwise resolved in their choice.)

It is not so clear what profiteering or being selfish is for those businessmen and women trying to protect others investments if that's their job. It's not so clear for those who trade to provide for their families.

(Heh, I used to wonder what Joe Kennedy did with the Kennedy $$ when the stock market crashed in 1929. I vaguely remembered hearing he'd had some insight of what to do, did it and protected the Kennedy fortune and those assets let JFK run for president a generation later. Well, I watched a special on the Hist Channel tonight and he shorted the market... in 1929. Um, guess that was profiteering???)

Anyway as you said, Pat18970, pulling money out of the stock market to protect profits or assets is also a choice that has an impact, especially when many do it at once. In fact, someone (not someone here) suggested to me it may not be patriotic to pull $$ out in the face of pandemic, that it's a good citizen's duty to stay invested in ways they have been in the past. :p:p:p (3 big strawberry sounds & lots of little spittles flying :) ; break out that N95 mask!)

We all make choices to benefit ourselves all the time, even choices that seem altruistic: whether to "serve our country" or to train to "serve the public" or to respond to a fire or accident or to give comfort to a friend. We usually choose the things that make us feel good or at least let us affirm to ourselves that we must be good people. Research shows it's good for us human beings to think well of ourselves. We function better.

In my opinion, anyone who names something "profiteering" before the fact of some business choice is speaking of events that are way to abstract for me. What is or isn't profiteering all fairly relative as I see it and usually involves a stochastic psychological process that may unfold kinda subconsciously. Oh yeah, you can have the extreme that all can recognize as profiteering or price gouging after the fact. Like gas jacked up to $8 a gallon in New Orleans before Katrina; how reasonable is that??? Personally, I don't know anyone who would do that. I certainly don't know anyone who posts here that would do that.

I think each of us will have to decide for ourselves what is "right livelihood" (the antithesis of profiteering). I think each person who has tamiflu, amantidine, food preps, etc will have to decide for themself if or when to share and when not to and, if not, to what lengths they will go to protect what is their store of value. I think lots of us will have to decide who to help first and whether thereafter we help others who might put our children or grandchildren, nephews, nieces at risk. And if we're in a supportive group, we'll have to decide collectively on ground rules regarding what to do about others who show up uninvited.

Our extended family's financial decisions are about making the wisest and most educated, responsible decisions we can to preserve the assets we have. I've told my firefighters many times that they won't be able to take care of anyone else unless they first take care of their loved ones in every way that's important to them. You can't be worried about your family and do a good job. Maslow's hierarchy says personal and family survival comes first. Having your bases covered lays the foundation for the rest.

I feel our family's biggest assets are not material wealth, but our personal and social "capital": each person's ability to maintain flexibility of mind and action, make sometimes unusual outside- the- box decisions in a critical moment, work from a place of vision and embrace each new experience as the current "metaphor" through which we co-create our lives moment by moment.

It helps that we've worked collectively at treading lightly on the land & being self sufficient and have taught others to do that. It helps that as a family we have years of communicating both love and disagreement on important issues, of being tolerant (or not), of rejoicing in our diversity, of fostering emotional intelligence, of not trying to "fix" other people or judge their actions without trying to imagine walking in their shoes first -- unless their actions really, really need to be evaluated with feedback and clarification. And then we've used the Golden Rule (do unto others as you would have them do unto you) that shows up in all religious traditions.

In normal times most people are capable of making their own choices and also of having the truth or learning what lives in the outcomes of their choices. Many choices have minimal impact on others. This time, however, we may be up against it if we are too tolerant since many many people may be making irrational choices that line up to impact on you and me.

So yeah, we need to be aware profiteering will likely happen sometime down the road, but right now I don't think it's an issue here. Not bad to discuss and plan though.

Mellie
 
Re: Profiteering is off limits?

Mellie, that is an excellent post. I agree with you 100%. When one is trying to protect one's family and at the same time trying to support and maintain civil society, there are always going to be gray areas, never just black and white.
 
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