Q: Do you think we might be facing the beginnings of a pandemic?
PIOT: There will certainly be Ebola patients from Africa who come to us in the hopes of receiving treatment. And they might even infect a few people here who may then die. But an outbreak in Europe or North America would quickly be brought under control. I am more worried about the many people from India who work in trade or industry in west Africa. It would only take one of them to become infected, travel to India to visit relatives during the virus's incubation period, and then, once he becomes sick, go to a public hospital there. Doctors and nurses in India, too, often don't wear protective gloves. They would immediately become infected and spread the virus.
Q: The virus is continually changing its genetic makeup. The more people who become infected, the greater the chance becomes that it will mutate ...
PIOT: ... which might speed its spread. Yes, that really is the apocalyptic scenario. Humans are actually just an accidental host for the virus, and not a good one. From the perspective of a virus, it isn't desirable for its host, within which the pathogen hopes to multiply, to die so quickly. It would be much better for the virus to allow us to stay alive longer.
Q: Could the virus suddenly change itself such that it could be spread through the air?
PIOT: Like measles, you mean? Luckily that is extremely unlikely. But a mutation that would allow Ebola patients to live a couple of weeks longer is certainly possible and would be advantageous for the virus. But that would allow Ebola patients to infect many, many more people than is currently
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/oct/04/ebola-zaire-peter-piot-outbreak
I know this has been posted under Ebola Outbreak forum, but since he does talk about pandemic potential and mutations I thought it might be useful in this Pandemic discussion forum. He touches on spread to developing nations (India) which could create pandemic and an idea which seems to get overlooked which is a mutation which could give the virus more time to infect more people.
PIOT: There will certainly be Ebola patients from Africa who come to us in the hopes of receiving treatment. And they might even infect a few people here who may then die. But an outbreak in Europe or North America would quickly be brought under control. I am more worried about the many people from India who work in trade or industry in west Africa. It would only take one of them to become infected, travel to India to visit relatives during the virus's incubation period, and then, once he becomes sick, go to a public hospital there. Doctors and nurses in India, too, often don't wear protective gloves. They would immediately become infected and spread the virus.
Q: The virus is continually changing its genetic makeup. The more people who become infected, the greater the chance becomes that it will mutate ...
PIOT: ... which might speed its spread. Yes, that really is the apocalyptic scenario. Humans are actually just an accidental host for the virus, and not a good one. From the perspective of a virus, it isn't desirable for its host, within which the pathogen hopes to multiply, to die so quickly. It would be much better for the virus to allow us to stay alive longer.
Q: Could the virus suddenly change itself such that it could be spread through the air?
PIOT: Like measles, you mean? Luckily that is extremely unlikely. But a mutation that would allow Ebola patients to live a couple of weeks longer is certainly possible and would be advantageous for the virus. But that would allow Ebola patients to infect many, many more people than is currently
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/oct/04/ebola-zaire-peter-piot-outbreak
I know this has been posted under Ebola Outbreak forum, but since he does talk about pandemic potential and mutations I thought it might be useful in this Pandemic discussion forum. He touches on spread to developing nations (India) which could create pandemic and an idea which seems to get overlooked which is a mutation which could give the virus more time to infect more people.