Professor John Oxford at Queen Mary Hospital - The Armageddon Virus

Laidback Al · Oct 21, 2012

The Armageddon virus: Why experts fear a disease that leaps from animals to humans could devastate mankind in the next five years

. . . One leading British virologist, Professor John Oxford at Queen Mary Hospital, University of London, and a world authority on epidemics, warns that we must expect an animal-originated pandemic to hit the world within the next five years, with potentially cataclysmic effects on the human race.
Such a contagion, he believes, will be a new strain of super-flu, a highly infectious virus that may originate in some far-flung backwater of Asia or Africa, and be contracted by one person from a wild animal or domestic beast, such as a chicken or pig.
By the time the first victim has succumbed to this unknown, unsuspected new illness, they will have spread it by coughs and sneezes to family, friends, and all those gathered anxiously around them.
Thanks to our crowded, hyper-connected world, this doomsday virus will already have begun crossing the globe by air, rail, road and sea before even the best brains in medicine have begun to chisel at its genetic secrets. Before it even has a name, it will have started to cut its lethal swathe through the world?s population. . . . .
Once these stowaway viruses get off the plane, they don?t have to learn a new language or new local customs. Genetically, we humans are not very diverse; an epidemic that can kill people in one part of the world can kill them in any other just as easily.
. . .
Professor Oxford, a world authority on epidemics, [to] warn that a new global pandemic of animal-derived flu is inevitable. And, he says, the clock is ticking fast.
Professor Oxford?s warning is as stark as it is certain: ?I think it is inevitable that we will have another big global outbreak of flu,? he says. ?We should plan for one emerging in 2017-2018.?
But are we adequately prepared to cope?
Professor Oxford warns that vigilant surveillance is the only real answer that we have.
?New flu strains are a day-to-day problem and we have to be very careful to keep on top of them,? he says. . . .

More at: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2217774/The-Armageddon-v irus-Why-experts-fear-disease-leaps-animals-humans-devastate-mankind-years.html#ixzz29OQ2DS00
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Giuseppe · Oct 21, 2012

Re: Professor John Oxford at Queen Mary Hospital - The Armageddon Virus

A part the alarmistic and perhaps a bit unfounded tone of the article, I wonder how the eminent expert intends to cope with this menace in absence of an animal health surveillance and response system in most part of the world, and without availability of treatment and vaccine for humans.

Predictions of these kind remind me much more the Maya conspirationists than a solid based science.

Without devising a solution, affordable and gound-based, the Armageddon will be at least unavoidable and at a certain point, advisable: there are too many Malthusian to cope with rational discussions!

A seven billions humankind is directed toward hell with or without pandemics, solely because of the immense number of poors and derelicts, because of the old, programmed and future wars and with the help of climate changes.

We could start to help to postpone a bit the disaster with a FD Roosevelt-era fiscal program...:tiphat:

Emily · Oct 21, 2012

Re: Professor John Oxford at Queen Mary Hospital - The Armageddon Virus

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21319723

Int J Health Serv. 2011;41(1):95-115.
Disease mongering and the fear of pandemic influenza.
Vance MA.
Source

Butler University, College of Pharmacy and Health Sciences, Indianapolis, IN 46208, USA.
Abstract

The catastrophic H1N1 pandemic of 1918, which killed tens of millions, is now legendary, and influenza policy has centered on preventing another such disaster. There is reason for concern about influenza A. It can rapidly alter its genetic makeup to increase virulence and can jump from other species to humans. Nonetheless, ignorance about influenza in 1918, the lack of effective vaccines or antibacterial and antiviral drugs, and the social disruption caused by World War I also contributed heavily to the lethality, and it is unlikely that influenza of similar destructiveness will recur. The stupefying publicity over the threat of influenza has been generated partly by those, such as the pharmaceutical industry and influenza researchers, who benefit from the increased expenditures the publicity provokes. It is, in effect, disease mongering, the promotion of disease or dread of disease for one's own gain. Huge expenditures on influenza preparedness have produced little demonstrable benefit and some harm, independent of the wasted resources. Disease mongering, including spreading fear of influenza, is widespread and unhealthy and should be vigorously opposed.

PMID:
21319723
[PubMed - indexed for MEDLINE]

Giuseppe · Oct 21, 2012

Re: Professor John Oxford at Queen Mary Hospital - The Armageddon Virus

We have a big trouble at European Union borders: The well entrenched bird flu countries of Middle-East.

If an expert or a panel of think-tank advisors want to stimulate the EU to make something to reduce the likelihood of a human health disaster, firstly they should push for an immediate intervention in these endemic regions.

1) A complete depopulation of poultry and domestic birds with massive introductions of EU Member States' poultry meat at affordable price for the needed time;

2) An immediate investment for building a farming system with biosecurity requirements (as valid for EU States), possibly based on cooperatives of women;

3) the creation of integrate production system (farming, freezing and packaging), possibly driven by women cooperative, with kindergaten, outpatients clinics etc.;

4) A literacy and educational program to improve children and women participation on the society life and for the quick access to microcredit;

5) Promotion for universal access to healthcare and improvements in veterinary medicine system.

Clearly, the experts have to point out that the alternative is to leave a time-bomb at the border of the second biggest economic region of the world and that the money invested today will ensure a more clear expectation for a mid-term development in the area.

However, I have big trouble in believing that the austerity driven continent will understand the importance of the international cooperation for controlling animal and human diseases and poverty.

This is more evident if considered the United Kingdom program to dismantle National Health System, as well as other cash-strapped countries like Italy, Spain and Greece moves against public health.

Laidback Al · Oct 21, 2012

Re: Professor John Oxford at Queen Mary Hospital - The Armageddon Virus

Unfortunately, the tone of the article is alarmist. Professor Oxford doesn't help by making a five year prediction for the next pandemic.

However, the underlying premise is sound, there will be a next a pandemic, we just don't know when. Giuseppe's presents some concrete suggestions about how the EU might prepare for such an event if it is a bird flu pandemic.

The abstract posted by Emily indicates that Dr. Vance, a professor of Pharmacology at Butler university, doesn't understand much about influenza pandemics.

Nonetheless, ignorance about influenza in 1918, the lack of effective vaccines or antibacterial and antiviral drugs, and the social disruption caused by World War I also contributed heavily to the lethality, and it is unlikely that influenza of similar destructiveness will recur.

He simply dismisses the potential for another high CFR pandemic based on his personal opinion.

There will be no vaccine for months once the next novel influenza pandemic occurs. Antivirals can help sick individuals but will not reduce the the spread of the disease. Finally, in our highly interlinked world society, a novel infection could spread around world in days or weeks. The extent of any social disruption will depend on the severity of the pandemic and the extent to which the world has prepared for it.

While Dr. Vance may have added another article to his CV, I don't think anyone is taking it seriously. According to Google Scholar it has only been cited twice.

To suggest that pandemic preparedness is only spurred on by the financial interests of the pharmaceutical industry and influenza researchers is an insult to public health officials, government agencies, scientists, and anyone else worried about the next pandemic including the posters and members here at FluTrackers.

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sharon sanders · Oct 21, 2012

Re: Professor John Oxford at Queen Mary Hospital - The Armageddon Virus

Thanks Emily for posting.

I think there is disaster mongering. Everyday the FluTrackers email has offers regarding personal protective equipment, cleaners, pharmaceutical items, books, new inventions...the list goes on. Clearly there are industries that benefit financially from disaster hype. The biodefense crowd and the scientific community also have financial incentives to promote themselves.

All of this is true.

But we should still study and prepare for the next disaster...because there will be one. It is part of the condition of man.

Here we try to distinguish between the hype paranoia and realistic events and expectations. We allow no advertising and we do not sell anything. There is no incentive to move in any particular direction.

Life is a risky business. As humans we are constantly subjected to the flucuations in our environments as well as the evolution of the disease processes.

As we all know, it is prudent to be aware of our environment and to be prepared for the next unwelcome event. Flu included.

curiosity · Oct 22, 2012

Re: Professor John Oxford at Queen Mary Hospital - The Armageddon Virus

After documenting CFRs in diseases such as white nose syndrome in bats and avian influenza in the avian species - it would be arrogant to think humans ARE NOT subject to a catastrophic illness. We are a species subject to a plethora of diseases - and we may not have yet even seen the one that will thin out the crowding so to speak.

We are comforted by our sense of control - be it in the environment, our habits, our activities, our "cleanliness", our medicine, our understanding of some diseases, etc...

We are concerned because the more information and knowledge we have, the more we realize we DO NOT know and we have so little control over natural selection. So, our goal is to know more and to study more. We prepare for many things, but not everything.

Analogously, we can prepare and hunker down for a Category 3 Hurricane - MOST will survive. We can not hunker down for a Category 5 - MANY will not survive. That is why we evacuate. Most diseases are "Category 1", some are "Category 3" - rarely are they "Category 5" destructive diseases - but when they happen, in the world we live in now especially, we can not evacuate.

Emily · Oct 23, 2012

Re: Professor John Oxford at Queen Mary Hospital - The Armageddon Virus

Dr. Vance's abstract did have a somewhat abrasive note to it, but I didn't get the impression that he was targeting his criticism to the sharing of a broad range of information here by the diverse members of Flutrackers, including many conservative, low-cost ideas about personal preparedness.

I wish we had access to the whole article, because I wonder if he discusses antibiotic resistance and if that could once again make secondary bacteria infections a big threat, and if so, what do we do to prevent that from happening? (Like ending growth-promoting routine use of antibiotics on farm animals?)

Also I wondered if he had read about the research about arsenic pollution being connected to more severe cases of flu in mice in the lab, and somewhat epidemiologically to humans. Could increasing arsenic or other pollutants in the air, food or water bring us back in time to the 1918 era?

Dr. Vance's abstract doesn't mention the media's role in pandemic communications. The study below indicates that the Swiss public doesn't trust the media and private businesses much at all, but researchers,doctors, and public health officials are still respected.

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21936261

Public Underst Sci. 2011 Jul;20(4):461-76.
Lay perceptions of collectives at the outbreak of the H1N1 epidemic: heroes, villains and victims.
Wagner-Egger P, Bangerter A, Gilles I, Green E, Rigaud D, Krings F, Staerkl? C, Cl?mence A.
Source

D?partement of Psychologie, Universit? de Fribourg, Switzerland.
Abstract

Lay perceptions of collectives (e.g., groups, organizations, countries) implicated in the 2009 H1N1 outbreak were studied. Collectives serve symbolic functions to help laypersons make sense of the uncertainty involved in a disease outbreak. We argue that lay representations are dramatized, featuring characters like heroes, villains and victims. In interviews conducted soon after the outbreak, 47 Swiss respondents discussed the risk posed by H1N1, its origins and effects, and protective measures. Countries were the most frequent collectives mentioned. Poor, underdeveloped countries were depicted as victims, albeit ambivalently, as they were viewed as partly responsible for their own plight. Experts (physicians, researchers) and political and health authorities were depicted as heroes. Two villains emerged: the media (viewed as fear mongering or as a puppet serving powerful interests) and private corporations (e.g., the pharmaceutical industry). Laypersons' framing of disease threat diverges substantially from official perspectives.

PMID:
21936261
[PubMed - indexed for MEDLINE]

Professor John Oxford at Queen Mary Hospital - The Armageddon Virus

Laidback Al

Well-known member

Giuseppe

Emeritus

Emily

Editor, Senior Moderator

Giuseppe

Emeritus

Laidback Al

Well-known member

sharon sanders

Editor-in-Chief & President

curiosity

Well-known member

Emily

Editor, Senior Moderator