tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A
. 2022 May 31;119(22):e2116165119.
doi: 10.1073/pnas.2116165119. Epub 2022 May 24.
Simulating COVID-19 classroom transmission on a university campus
Arvin Hekmati[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Mitul Luhar[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Bhaskar Krishnamachari[SUP] 1 3 [/SUP], Maja Matarić[SUP] 1 [/SUP]
Affiliations
Abstract
SignificanceThis paper simulates the spread of COVID-19 at universities via airborne transmission in classroom settings. The transmission risk model used for these simulations accounts for student-specific class schedules, classroom sizes and occupancy, and ventilation rates, as well as vaccination rate and efficacy. We show the simulations reproduce trends observed in weekly infection rates at a large US university. We also evaluate the impact of campus operational policies. Model predictions show moving 90% of classes online can reduce new infections by as much as [Formula: see text], and universal mask usage can reduce new infections by up to [Formula: see text]. For full-time in-person instruction, high vaccination rates are predicted to curb transmission even for more contagious variants of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2.
Keywords: COVID-19; airborne transmission; vaccination.
. 2022 May 31;119(22):e2116165119.
doi: 10.1073/pnas.2116165119. Epub 2022 May 24.
Simulating COVID-19 classroom transmission on a university campus
Arvin Hekmati[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Mitul Luhar[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Bhaskar Krishnamachari[SUP] 1 3 [/SUP], Maja Matarić[SUP] 1 [/SUP]
Affiliations
- PMID: 35609196
- DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2116165119
Abstract
SignificanceThis paper simulates the spread of COVID-19 at universities via airborne transmission in classroom settings. The transmission risk model used for these simulations accounts for student-specific class schedules, classroom sizes and occupancy, and ventilation rates, as well as vaccination rate and efficacy. We show the simulations reproduce trends observed in weekly infection rates at a large US university. We also evaluate the impact of campus operational policies. Model predictions show moving 90% of classes online can reduce new infections by as much as [Formula: see text], and universal mask usage can reduce new infections by up to [Formula: see text]. For full-time in-person instruction, high vaccination rates are predicted to curb transmission even for more contagious variants of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2.
Keywords: COVID-19; airborne transmission; vaccination.